Analysis of Potential Health and Economic Impact Oflarge Avian Influenza Epidemics in Indonesia

Abstract

The analysis of potential health and economic impacts from large epidemics on avian flu in Indonesia had been conducted using several sources including data from health, agriculture, tourism and transportation sectors. This analysis aimed to socialize the understanding on negative impacts and the size of burden if a large epidemic happened in lndonesia. It was estimated 43.2 million people will suffer from avian flu with a total deaths in the first two weeks at about 525.000 persons and 605.000 cases need hospitalized in the first 2 (two) months of epidemics. The cost needed for case managements reach 539.9 million US Dollars. In agriculture sector, the direct lost because of disease or stumping out of poultry reached 97.2 million US Dollars and the preventing cost using vaccines for poultry is 74.7 million US Dollars. In tourism sector. the losses reached 8.6 million Dollars and in transportation sector reached 1.7 milliard US Dollars just in the first two months. The negative impact will increase if the epidemic was in a long duration or the virus type is more virulent. So the government and community efforts to do promotion and preventive activities including preventing the virus transmission in poultry, to protect if the epidemic starts and to decrease the negative impacts for community health is important to manage the situation