Source: ICHE Conference Archive - https://mdi-de.baw.de/icheArchiv

Chakraborty, Arun

Sil, Sourav

Singh, Sarmistha

English

Hydraulic Engineering Repository

Conference Paper, Published VersionSingh, Sarmistha; Sil, Sourav; Chakraborty, ArunRecent Climate Trend And Its Impact On Water ResourcesZur Verfügung gestellt in Kooperation mit/Provided in Cooperation with:Kuratorium für Forschung im Küsteningenieurwesen (KFKI)Verfügbar unter/Available at: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11970/109975Vorgeschlagene Zitierweise/Suggested citation:Singh, Sarmistha; Sil, Sourav; Chakraborty, Arun (2010): Recent Climate Trend And ItsImpact On Water Resources. In: Sundar, V.; Srinivasan, K.; Murali, K.; Sudheer, K.P. (Hg.):ICHE 2010. Proceedings of the 9th International Conference on Hydro-Science &Engineering, August 2-5, 2010, Chennai, India. Chennai: Indian Institute of TechnologyMadras.Standardnutzungsbedingungen/Terms of Use:Die Dokumente in HENRY stehen unter der Creative Commons Lizenz CC BY 4.0, sofern keine abweichendenNutzungsbedingungen getroffen wurden. Damit ist sowohl die kommerzielle Nutzung als auch das Teilen, dieWeiterbearbeitung und Speicherung erlaubt. Das Verwenden und das Bearbeiten stehen unter der Bedingung derNamensnennung. Im Einzelfall kann eine restriktivere Lizenz gelten; dann gelten abweichend von den obigenNutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte.Documents in HENRY are made available under the Creative Commons License CC BY 4.0, if no other license isapplicable. Under CC BY 4.0 commercial use and sharing, remixing, transforming, and building upon the materialof the work is permitted. In some cases a different, more restrictive license may apply; if applicable the terms ofthe restrictive license will be binding.   RECENT CLIMATE TREND AND ITS IMPACT ON WATER RESOURCES  Sarmistha Singh1, Sourav Sil2 and Arun Chakraborty1,2    Abstract: Climate change is a great threat to life and resources. The objective of this paper is to analyze changing patterns of precipitation and temperature in the observed data, thus indicating that climate change is already a reality. For which temperature trend and its relation with respect to rainfall are studied in the Indian subcontinent over past 103 years. Monthly climatology analysis and interannual variation of rainfall are also studied in different regions of India to know the rainfall pattern in recent climate change scenario. It is showing decrease in peak in mountainous India and north-central India but increasing peak in north-eastern India but shifting of peak in east-peninsular India. Wavelet analysis for each season for all parts of Indian region is studied for last 30 years which indicate the increase of frequency and intensity of small climatic phenomenon like El-Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)  in recent time. Hydro meteorological data of four rain gauge stations over a river basin is studied. This study also helps to identify the vulnerable regions of India with respect to climate change. Such an analysis is required not only for environmental researchers but also for policy makers. It’s an attempt to help planners for adopting good strategy or policy for different regions to manage water resources. Keywords: India; Temperature; Rainfall; ENSO; IOD.     ___________________________  1M.Tech Student, School of Water Resources, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Kharagpur 721302, India, Email: sarmistha.iit@gmail.com. 2Research Scholar, Centre for Oceans, Rivers, Atmosphere and Land Sciences (CORAL), Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Kharagpur, India,Email: sourav@coral.iitkgp.ernet.in   1,2Assistant Professor, Centre for Oceans, Rivers, Atmosphere and Land Sciences (CORAL), Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Kharagpur, India,Email: arunc@coral.iitkgp.ernet.in2 - 5  August 2010   Proceedings of ninth International Conference on Hydro-Science and Engineering (ICHE 2010), IIT Madras, Chennai, India. 2 - 5  August 2010 682Proceedings of ICHE2010, IIT Madras, Aug 2-5,2010 Recent Climate Trend and its Impact on Water Resources                       INTRODUCTION India is endowed with rich surface water resources but an extremely uneven spatial and temporal distribution of the rainfall, which is the primary source of surface waters, frequently results in severe water scarcity in some regions and, flood hazards (Mujumdar, 2008). Due to the changing climate water resources will come under increasing pressure in Indian subcontinent. The climate affects the demand for water as well as the supply and quality. Particularly, in arid and semi-arid regions of India any shortfall in water supply multiplied with climate change will enhance competition for water use for a wide range of economic, social and environmental applications (Lioubimtseva and Henebry, 2009).  In India, demand for water has already increased manifold over the years due to urbanization, agriculture expansion, increasing population, rapid industrialization and economic development. At present, changes in cropping pattern and land-use pattern, over-exploitation of water storage and changes in irrigation and drainage are modifying the hydrological cycle in many climate regions and river basins of India (Mall, 2007).  Global warming and human-induced climate change are the immediate threats to mankind and tropical regions are the most vulnerable to them. Global warming has different manifestations, such as increase in the number and severity of tropical cyclones (Emanuel, 2005; Webster et al., 2005), changing pattern of precipitation and increase of extreme rain events (Goswami et al., 2006; Zhang et al., 2007), melting of glaciers (Oerlemans, 1994) and associated sea level rise (Church, 2001; Meehl et al., 2005). With increasing concerns about climate change, the need to understand the nature and variability of monsoon climatic conditions and to evaluate possible future changes becomes increasingly important (Pal and Al-Tabbaa, 2009). Considering above facts in mind the present study focuses on the impact of climate change on water resources.  DATA USED AND METHODOLOGY Monthly precipitation data and temperature data from Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune (An Autonomous Body under the Ministry of Earth Sciences, Govt. of India) for 1850 to 2006 and 1901 to 2003 respectively are used. Beside these data river discharge data of Mahanadi River is collected from Central Water Commission (CWC), Bhubaneswar for 1960 to 2003. We have performed wavelet analysis (Torrence and Compo, 1998) to diagnosis the interannual signals. We have also tried to find the dominant signals of the above parameters over the years. The interannual variability is shown for the variables used here in terms of indices (Chakraborty et al., 2006). These indices were calculated from the monthly climatology removed anomalies of the time series data. The long-term time mean of the above anomalies was subtracted from each time series datum and normalized by dividing the standard deviation (σ).   RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS Temperature and rainfall analysis The IPCC, in their SRESs, has developed a wide range of future emissions scenarios, based on a possible future development of population, economies and energy sources. All representative SRES scenarios are showing increase rate of global surface warming. In this paper temperature trend and its relation with respect to rainfall are studied in the Indian subcontinent over the past 103 years. Maximum temperature as well as minimum temperature trend is increasing over the years which are shown in figure 1(a) and figure 1(b). But 683Proceedings of ICHE2010, IIT Madras, Aug 2-5,2010 Recent Climate Trend and its Impact on Water Resources                       in case of minimum temperature during 1960-1962, there is sudden drop in temperature. This deviation may due to change in land use pattern during that period for which difference between maximum temperature and minimum temperature also increased.   Fig. 1(a): Maximum temperature trend.  Fig. 1(b): Minimum temperature trend. Temperature index and rainfall index is calculated for the period of 1901-2003. Interannual variation of temperature and rainfall is shown in figure 2. Both the trends are in opposite fashion up to 1985 but after that they are not following the same trend. Its indicating there is some changes in climatic phenomenon.  Fig. 2: Interannual variation of Temperature and Rainfall Index. Rainfall pattern Indian subcontinent is divided into seven regions like north-east (NE), north-west (NW), north-central (NC), east peninsular (EP), west peninsular (WP), south peninsular (SP) and mountainous India (MI) which is shown in figure 3. 684Proceedings of ICHE2010, IIT Madras, Aug 2-5,2010 Recent Climate Trend and its Impact on Water Resources                         Fig. 3:  Seven regions of India having different homogeneous rainfall.  Forty years climatology pattern is studied for each region. Climatological pattern of mountainous India is shown in Fig. 4(a). There is decreased trend in monsoon for last 37 years, its value around 100mm. The magnitude of rainfall in north-east India is showing an increased trend in Fig. 4(b). In north central India (Fig. 4(c)) rainfall pattern is same as mountainous India but the decreased value is less. Rainfall pattern of north-west India (Fig. 4(d)) is showing a decreased-increased type cyclic pattern. East peninsular (Fig. 4(e)) and west peninsular India (Fig. 4(f)) showing a similar pattern, during 1930-1969 rainfall is increased. Rainfall pattern of south peninsular India (Fig. 4(g)) is different than other parts of India; it shows two peak rainfalls around the year i.e. in between May 15 to July 15 and in October. Its rainfall pattern is decreased type.     (a)   (b) 685Proceedings of ICHE2010, IIT Madras, Aug 2-5,2010 Recent Climate Trend and its Impact on Water Resources                        (c)  (d) (e) (f)   (g) Fig. 4: Indian rainfall patterns in (a) mountainous, (b) north east, (c) north central, (d) north west, (e) east peninsular, (f) west peninsular and (g) south peninsular regions.  Seasonal variation of rainfall in region wise of India is also studied. Except the rainfall pattern of mountainous India all other regions of India are showing similar pattern during Jan-Feb (JF) but in 1920 a deviation is observed in NEI (Fig. 5(a)). In last 30 years NEI showing a lag of 2-3 years. Fluctuation in rainfall is very high in MI and its time period is also becoming short. NEI and EPI are showing positive value in the last 20 years. In March-April-May (MAM), mountainous India peak rainfall is obtained in 1980 (Fig. 5(b)). In last 10 years each part of regions are showing an increased trend except EPI. In NEI positive rainfall is there but it is falling down after 2002-2003. In June-July-Aug-Sept (JJAS), NEI and MI are showing a negative 686Proceedings of ICHE2010, IIT Madras, Aug 2-5,2010 Recent Climate Trend and its Impact on Water Resources                       fluctuation which is below average rainfall whereas in peninsular India there is an increased trend of rainfall in last 30 years (Fig. 5(c)). Amount of rainfall is also relatively less in last 30 years. In Oct-Nov-Dec (OND), amount of rainfall is decreased after 1960 in NCI (Fig. 5(d)). In past 30 years, NEI and peninsular Indian rainfall are dominant in nature with a high rainfall amount than the other regions of India. All regions of India are showing relatively similar pattern over the 60 years. There is same magnitude of rainfall over the year in SPI and WPI.   Fig. 5(a): Deviation of rainfall in JF over the India.                                 Fig. 5(b): Deviation of rainfall in MAM over the India.    Fig. 5(c): Deviation of rainfall in JJAS over the India. 687Proceedings of ICHE2010, IIT Madras, Aug 2-5,2010 Recent Climate Trend and its Impact on Water Resources                        Fig. 5(d): Deviation of rainfall in OND over the India.  Wavelet analysis for each season for all parts of Indian region is studied for last 30 years and different strong signals indicated by that analysis  are shown in Table 1. Wavelet analysis is done under the significance level of 95%, which is shown in Fig. 6, for north east India.    From the table it is observed that in Indian region small climatological signatures like ENSO and biannual signals are present.     Table 1: Region wise seasonal dominant signals Regions Dominant signals in last 30 years  JF MAM  JJAS OND MI NO 3-7 years NO NO NEI NO 3-7 years NO 2-4 years NCI  NO 5-7 years  2-4 years NO NWI 2-5 years 2-5 years 5-8 years  2-4 years  EPI 5-7 years  2-7 years  2-3 years  3-7 years  WPI 1-2 years  2-3 years  1-2 years  2-3 years  SPI 2-8 years NO  3-5 years 4-8 years      (a)                                      (b)  Fig. 6: Wavelet analysis for north east India in (a) January-February and (b) March-April-May. Impact on Discharge Climate change impact on river discharge is studied in Mahanadi river basin. Four rain gauge stations (Saradihi, Deogaon, Khairmal and Barmul) are selected and the data for those 688Proceedings of ICHE2010, IIT Madras, Aug 2-5,2010 Recent Climate Trend and its Impact on Water Resources                       locations are analyzed. The recording of discharge of the Mahanadi River at the gauging site reveals that as the temperature increases, the discharge increases. Thus features of discharge and temperature show strong correlation between air temperature and discharge of the Mahanadi River, except some extreme unusual events.  Fig. 7. Variations of discharge with temperature for the four stations.  CONCLUSIONS  In this study, relation between temperature and rainfall, rainfall pattern and different conditions of climatologic phenomenon are discussed. Recent increasing temperature trend gives us the knowledge of climate change. Both maximum and minimum temperatures are increasing with an increase in temperature difference between them. This change in temperature may be due to change in land use and land cover. Temperature and rainfall indices provide us an idea of some variations in relation between temperature and rainfall in the last 20 years. Temperature is showing abnormal increase in trend with an increase in rainfall.   Climatological rainfall pattern is also studied for each region of Indian subcontinent. Each one is showing different features. Amount of rainfall is decreased in Mountainous India and the North Central India in the last 37 years and showing a time diminished peak. Where NEI rainfall is showing increase peak. NWI and WPI are having good amount of rain and more rainy days. In case of NWI, rainfall peak is remaining relatively constant for a period of 1.5 months. EPI rainfall is showing shifting of peak from last week of June to first week of August. SPI is having dual peak i.e. last week of May to first week of July and in October. First peak is showing decreasing tendency whereas second peak is showing increasing tendency. Fluctuation in rainfall is very high in MI but in past 30 years, NEI and peninsular Indian rainfalls are dominant in nature during OND which is observed from interannual variations of rainfall study. Indian regions have small climatic signatures like ENSO and IOD which is observed from wavelet analysis.  River discharge in north east India is showing linear relation with temperature except some extreme events. This study helps to identify the vulnerable regions of India with respect to climate change. It’s an attempt to help planners for adopting good strategy or policy for different regions to manage water resources. It is required to feature climate change effects prominently within the environmental or economic policy agendas of the developing countries for the sustainable development  as it has significant ancillary benefits for the local environment (Beg et al., 2002). We should adopt strategies those need to meet a criterion that place equal importance on environmental, social, and economic considerations (Lioubimtseva and Henebry, 2009).  689Proceedings of ICHE2010, IIT Madras, Aug 2-5,2010 Recent Climate Trend and its Impact on Water Resources                       ACKNOWLEDGEMENT We would like to acknowledge Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology Pune, and Central Water Commission, Bhubaneswar for providing datasets. We would like to thank Mr. Mohanty of CWC and Kuldeep Kanchan of AgFE, IIT Kharagpur, for their help.  REFERENCES Beg, N., Morlot, J. C., Davidson, O., Afrane-Okesse, Y., Tyani, L., Denton, F., Sokona, Y., Thomas J. P., Rovere, E. L. L., Parikh, J. K., Parikh, K. and Rahman, A. A., 2002, Linkages between climate change and sustainable development, Climate Policy, 2, 129-144. Chakraborty, A., Behera, S., Ohba, R., and Yamagata, T., 2006. Diagnosis of tropospheric moisture over Saudi Arabia and influences of IOD and ENSO, Mon. Wea. Rev, 134, 598-617. Church, J.A., 2001. How fast are sea levels rising? Science, 294, 802–803. Emanuel, K., 2005. Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436, 686–688. Goswami, B.N., Venugopal, V., Sengupta, D., Madhusoodhanan, M.S. and  Xavier, P.K., 2006. Increasing trend of extreme rains over India in a warming environment. Science, 314, 1442–1445. Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Mumby, P.J., Hooten, A.J., Steneck, R.S., Greenfield, P., Gomez, E., Harvell, C.D., Sale, P.F., Edwards, A.J., Caldeira, K., Knowlton, N., Eakin, C.M., Lglesias-Prieto, R., Muthiga, N., Bradbury, R.H., Dubi, A. and Hatziolos M.E., 2007.Coral reefs under rapid climate change and ocean acidification. Science, 318, 1737–1742. Lioubimtseva, E. and Henebry, G.M., 2009, Climate and environmental change in arid Central Asia, Impacts, vulnerability and adaptations, Journal of Arid Environments, 30, 1–15. Meehl, G.A., Washington, W.M., Collins, W.D., Arblaster, J.M., Hu, A., Buja, L.E., Strand, W.G. and Teng, H., 2005. How much more global warming and sea level rise? Science, 307, 1769–1772. Mujumdar, P.P., 2008, Implications of climate change for sustainable water resources management in India, Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 33, 354–358. Oerlemans, J., 1994. Quantifying global warming from the retreat of glaciers. Science, 264, 243–245. Mall R. K., Gupta, A, Singh R, Singh and Rathore L. S. 2007, Water resources and climate change: An Indian perspective, Current Science, 90, 1610-1626. Pal, I. and Al-Tabbaa, A., 2009, Regional changes in extreme monsoon rainfall deficit and excess in India, Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans.49, 206-214. Torrence, C. and Compo, G. P., 1998. A practical guide to wavelet analysis. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 79, 61-78. Webster, P.J., Holland, G.J., Curry, J.A., Chang and H.R., 2005. Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment. Science, 309, 1844–1846. Zhang, X., Zwiers, F.W., Hegerl, G.C., Lambert, F.H., Gillett, N.P., Solomon, S., Stott, P.A. and Nozawa, T., 2007. Detection of human influence on twentieth-century precipitation Trends. Nature, 448, 461–465.  690

Recent Climate Trend And Its Impact On Water Resources

http://henry.baw.de/bitstream/20.500.11970/109975/1/076_ICHE_2010.pdf

Recent Climate Trend And Its Impact On Water Resources

Abstract

Similar works

Full text

Available Versions

Hydraulic Engineering Repository