This article belongs to the Special Issue "Impacts of Climate Change on Transportation Infrastructure, Networks and Nodes"; https://www.mdpi.com/journal/atmosphere/special_issues/climate_transportatio

Hache, Ingo

Jensen, Corinna

Kruschke, Tim

Mahavadi, Tara

Schade, Nils

Atmosphere

English

Hydraulic Engineering Repository

Negative storm surges in the Elbe estuary — Large-scale meteoro-logical conditions and future climate change

Negative storm surges in the Elbe estuary can affect shipping as well as shoreline infrastructure. The significant reduction of water level caused by strong offshore winds can lead to extreme low water events, which endanger waterfront structures. The current study analyses the large-scale meteorological conditions inducing such situations and possible future changes due to climate change. The analysis is based on tide gauge data from Cuxhaven, atmospheric reanalysis data and an objective weather classification approach. It is found that south-easterly wind directions in combination with strong gales favour extreme low water events at Cuxhaven. Furthermore, the analysis of a single model large ensemble of climate projections shows a significant decrease in the frequency of such conditions for the far future (2071–2100). Regarding future global mean sea level rise the simulation results of a sensitivity study indicate that water levels during such extreme events approximately follow the development of the mean sea level rise. Therefore, our study suggests that both meteorological conditions and mean sea levels in a warmer future climate will be less favourable for the occurrence of extreme low water events in the Elbe estuary

Corinna Jensen

Tara Mahavadi

Nils H. Schade

Ingo Hache

Tim Kruschke

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Negative Storm Surges in the Elbe Estuary—Large-Scale Meteorological Conditions and Future Climate Change

http://henry.baw.de/bitstream/20.500.11970/110505/1/24039_Jensen_etal_Negative_Storm_Surges_in_the%20Elbe_Estuary_atmosphere-13-01634-v2.pdf

Negative storm surges in the Elbe estuary — Large-scale meteoro-logical conditions and future climate change

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