Strategy in the practice of statecraft? The interrelationship of foreign and military policies in Putin’s Russia, 2014-2021

Abstract

This dissertation empirically examines press releases and documents issued by the Russian government to measure their relative frequency and intended message over the years 2014-2021. It then quantifies how the quantities of diplomatic meetings and military exercises over time shift the relative quality of Russia’s relations with other countries of the world as well as the degree of military threat expressed toward each country by the geographical and tactical distribution of the military exercises acknowledged by the state. Finally, it assesses this shifting distribution using mixed methodologies: a quantitative methodology to determine if and how the changing foreign policy quality and military threat are correlated and a qualitative methodology to examine the patterns by which different leading Russian politicians and bureaucratic organs discuss their competing outlooks on and objectives of policy. It concludes by assessing that despite efforts to better harmonise policymaking across the Russian government, relatively little evidence exists to suggest that a coherent strategy is determining the everyday coordination of Russian foreign and military policies

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