Emotions have been recently reconsidered as interoceptive predictive models, “constructed” by the brain on the basis of contextual information and prior experience, with the aim to predict relevant stimuli or events, and to provide the organism with optimal resources for survival. Nevertheless, the specific mechanisms underlying the construction of affective predictions both at the neural and subjective experience level remain unclear. More specifically, both the role played by contextual information and prior experience on the one hand, and the potential interactions with dispositional characteristics such as Intolerance of Uncertainty (IU), which is considered a trans-diagnostic risk factor for affective disorders, on the other hand, have yet to be unraveled. The present thesis aimed to answer these open questions. As a first aim, we investigated how contextual information of different predictive value modulates the neural correlates of affective predictions construction. Second, we explored how prior probabilistic experience affects the construction of affective predictions at the subjective experience level. Third and last, we studied how individual differences in IU impact on the construction of affective predictions as a function of contextual information and prior experience. Taken together, this thesis contributes to untangling the dynamics of affective prediction construction at the neural and subjective experience level. Contextual information and prior experience were found to differently influence (depending on their predictive value), and to interact with IU, in shaping the neural correlates and the subjective experience of emotion along the construction of affective predictions. Thus, this work offers both a theoretical contribution to predictive models of emotion, by better clarifying the mechanisms subtending prediction construction at the neural and subjective experience levels, and potential clinical implications for the prevention and treatment of anxiety disorders, given the trans-diagnostic nature of IU as a risk factor for the development of affective psychopathology.Emotions have been recently reconsidered as interoceptive predictive models, “constructed” by the brain on the basis of contextual information and prior experience, with the aim to predict relevant stimuli or events, and to provide the organism with optimal resources for survival. Nevertheless, the specific mechanisms underlying the construction of affective predictions both at the neural and subjective experience level remain unclear. More specifically, both the role played by contextual information and prior experience on the one hand, and the potential interactions with dispositional characteristics such as Intolerance of Uncertainty (IU), which is considered a trans-diagnostic risk factor for affective disorders, on the other hand, have yet to be unraveled. The present thesis aimed to answer these open questions. As a first aim, we investigated how contextual information of different predictive value modulates the neural correlates of affective predictions construction. Second, we explored how prior probabilistic experience affects the construction of affective predictions at the subjective experience level. Third and last, we studied how individual differences in IU impact on the construction of affective predictions as a function of contextual information and prior experience. Taken together, this thesis contributes to untangling the dynamics of affective prediction construction at the neural and subjective experience level. Contextual information and prior experience were found to differently influence (depending on their predictive value), and to interact with IU, in shaping the neural correlates and the subjective experience of emotion along the construction of affective predictions. Thus, this work offers both a theoretical contribution to predictive models of emotion, by better clarifying the mechanisms subtending prediction construction at the neural and subjective experience levels, and potential clinical implications for the prevention and treatment of anxiety disorders, given the trans-diagnostic nature of IU as a risk factor for the development of affective psychopathology
