BACKGROUND: Circulating tumour cells (CTCs) are detectable in patients with NET and are accurate prognostic markers although the optimum threshold has not been defined. OBJECTIVE: To define optimal prognostic CTC threshold in pancreatic and midgut NET. PATIENTS AND METHODS: CellSearch was used to enumerate CTCs in 199 patients with metastatic pancreatic (PanNET) (90) or midgut NET (109). Patients were followed for progression free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) for a minimum of 3 years or until death. RESULTS: AUROC for progression at 12 months in PanNET and midgut NET identified the optimal CTC threshold as ≥1 and ≥2 respectively. In multivariate logistic regression analysis, these thresholds were predictive for 12 month progression with OR of 6.69 (p< 0.01) for PanNET and 5.88 (p<0.003) for midgut. The same thresholds were found to be optimal for predicting death at 36 months with an OR of 2.87 (p< 0.03) and 5.09 (p<0.005) for PanNET and midgut NET respectively. In multivariate Cox hazard regression analysis for PFS in PanNET, ≥ 1 CTC had HR 2.6 (p <0.01) whilst ≥ 2 CTCs had HR 2.25 (p < 0.01) in midgut NET. In multivariate analysis OS in PanNET, ≥ 1 CTC had HR 3.16 (p < 0.01) and in midgut NET, ≥ 2 CTCs had HR of 1.73 (p < 0.06). CONCLUSIONS: The optimal CTC threshold to predict PFS and OS in metastatic PanNET and midgut NET is 1 and 2, respectively. These thresholds can be used to stratify patients in clinical practice and clinical trials
