Castellanza, Riccardo

Crosta, Giovanni

Previtali, Marco

Utili, Stefano

English

University of Dundee Online Publications

                                                                    University of DundeeHazard Assessment of Tailing Dams Slope Instability by Finite Element Analyses withStochastic Parameter InputUtili, Stefano; Previtali, Marco; Castellanza, Riccardo ; Crosta, GiovanniPublished in:Proceedings of Tailings and Mine Waste 2019Publication date:2019Document VersionPublisher's PDF, also known as Version of recordLink to publication in Discovery Research PortalCitation for published version (APA):Utili, S., Previtali, M., Castellanza, R., & Crosta, G. (2019). Hazard Assessment of Tailing Dams Slope Instabilityby Finite Element Analyses with Stochastic Parameter Input. In Proceedings of Tailings and Mine Waste 2019(pp. 265-275). University of British Columbia.General rightsCopyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in Discovery Research Portal are retained by the authors and/or othercopyright owners and it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated withthese rights. • Users may download and print one copy of any publication from Discovery Research Portal for the purpose of private study or research. • You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain. • You may freely distribute the URL identifying the publication in the public portal.Take down policyIf you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediatelyand investigate your claim.Download date: 02. Dec. 2022Proceedings of Tailings and Mine Waste 2019 November 17–20, 2019, Vancouver, Canada Published by the University of British Columbia, 2019 265 Hazard Assessment of Tailing Dams Slope Instability by Finite Element Analyses with Stochastic Parameter Input Stefano Utili, Newcastle University, UK  Marco Previtali, University of Milano Bicocca, Italy and Dundee University, UK Riccardo Castellanza, University of Milano Bicocca and EG4 Risk Sr, Italy  Giovanni Crosta, University of Milano Bicocca, Italy Abstract TAILINGS AND MINE WASTE 2019  VANCOUVER, CANADA 266 Introduction Method Figure 1: Tailings dam geometry and geomaterials  Figure 2: FEM mesh with boundary conditions for the scenarios considered HAZARD ASSESSMENT OF TAILING DAMS SLOPE INSTABILITY BY FINITE ELEMENT ANALYSES WITH STOCHASTIC PARAMETER INPUT 267 •••••TAILINGS AND MINE WASTE 2019  VANCOUVER, CANADA 268 Table 1: Material parameters  Material                 Earthfill 70,000 0.3 0.74 18 22  5 26 Tailing settled 35,000 0.3 0.22 18 22  0 25 Tailing wet 20,000 0.3 0.22 18 22  0 15 Drain 50,000 0.3 0.44 18 22  0 34 Foundation 100,000 0.3 0.53 18 22  – – Figure 3: Schematic methodological approach  Stochastic input HAZARD ASSESSMENT OF TAILING DAMS SLOPE INSTABILITY BY FINITE ELEMENT ANALYSES WITH STOCHASTIC PARAMETER INPUT 269 Figure 4: Normal distribution assumed for earthfill  (better known) and for tailing settled (mode uncertainties)   Figure 5: LHS stochastic set of data for the three input parameter TAILINGS AND MINE WASTE 2019  VANCOUVER, CANADA 270 Table 2: Stochastic set for input in the deterministic analyses  Deterministic FEM analyses Figure 6: Total displacement at failure for Set #25 – Scenario #1   Set #                                                                                HAZARD ASSESSMENT OF TAILING DAMS SLOPE INSTABILITY BY FINITE ELEMENT ANALYSES WITH STOCHASTIC PARAMETER INPUT 271 Figure 7: Total displacement at failure for Set #25 – Scenario #4   Figure 8: Progressive failure observed for Set #25 –  Scenario #4 (from the top: SRF=1; SRF=1.4; SRF=1.45) TAILINGS AND MINE WASTE 2019  VANCOUVER, CANADA 272 Figure 9: Progressive failure observed in specific monitoring point  for Set #25 – Scenario #4 by increasing the Strength Reduction Factor (SRF) Stochastic output Table 3: Simulation output in term of Safety Factor FS for each input material set and scenarios  Set # Scenario #1 Scenario #2 Scenario #3  Scenario #4 Scenario #5  1 1.72 1.71 1.66 1.30 1.17 2 2.30 2.20 2.10 1.68 1.55 3 2.03 2.00 1.91 1.54 1.38 4 1.78 1.74 1.65 1.34 1.20 5 1.73 1.70 1.62 1.34 1.16 6 1.96 1.95 1.84 1.50 1.34 7 2.01 2.00 1.94 1.53 1.36 8 1.82 1.80 1.72 1.40 1.23 9 2.23 2.21 2.12 1.70 1.52 10 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 11 1.66 1.63 1.55 1.29 1.11 12 1.53 1.51 1.43 1.20 1.00 13 1.78 1.74 1.65 1.38 1.20 14 1.68 1.65 1.56 1.28 1.13 15 1.43 1.40 1.33 1.10 1.00 Set # Scenario #1 Scenario #2 Scenario #3  Scenario #4 Scenario #5  16 2.25 2.21 2.10 1.71 1.53 17 1.18 1.15 1.08 1.00 1.00 18 1.61 1.59 1.50 1.23 1.08 19 1.28 1.26 1.20 1.00 1.00 20 1.65 1.63 1.54 1.28 1.11 21 1.60 1.56 1.48 1.23 1.06 22 1.85 1.83 1.78 1.41 1.25 23 1.23 1.20 1.15 1.00 1.00 24 1.46 1.43 1.36 1.13 1.00 25 1.90 1.88 1.78 1.45 1.28 26 2.13 2.10 2.00 1.63 1.43 27 1.04 1.02 1.00 1.00 1.00 28 1.91 1.91 1.89 1.45 1.33 29 1.36 1.35 1.26 1.06 1.00 30 1.78 1.78 1.74 1.33 1.25 HAZARD ASSESSMENT OF TAILING DAMS SLOPE INSTABILITY BY FINITE ELEMENT ANALYSES WITH STOCHASTIC PARAMETER INPUT 273 Table 4: FS mean value, standard deviation and  Probability of Failure associated to the different Scenarios  Scenario #1 Scenario #2 Scenario #3 Scenario #4 Scenario #5 FS – Mean value 1,71 1,69 1,61 1,32 1,18 Standard deviation 0,32 0,31 0,30 0,21 0,17 PF Probability of Failure 2.37 2.86 4.28 9.88 20.57 Figure 10: Stochastic distribution of Safety Factor (FS)  and mean values and standard deviation for each scenario TAILINGS AND MINE WASTE 2019  VANCOUVER, CANADA 274 Figure 11: Density of probability for the normal distribution of Factor of Safety fitting the output data for each scenario; Conclusion Bibliography HAZARD ASSESSMENT OF TAILING DAMS SLOPE INSTABILITY BY FINITE ELEMENT ANALYSES WITH STOCHASTIC PARAMETER INPUT 275 

Hazard Assessment of Tailing Dams Slope Instability by Finite Element Analyses with Stochastic Parameter Input

                                                                    University of DundeeHazard Assessment of Tailing Dams Slope Instability by Finite Element Analyses withStochastic Parameter InputUtili, Stefano; Previtali, Marco; Castellanza, Riccardo ; Crosta, GiovanniPublished in:Proceedings of Tailings and Mine Waste 2019Publication date:2019Document VersionPublisher's PDF, also known as Version of recordLink to publication in Discovery Research PortalCitation for published version (APA):Utili, S., Previtali, M., Castellanza, R., & Crosta, G. (2019). Hazard Assessment of Tailing Dams Slope Instabilityby Finite Element Analyses with Stochastic Parameter Input. In Proceedings of Tailings and Mine Waste 2019(pp. 265-275). University of British Columbia.General rightsCopyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in Discovery Research Portal are retained by the authors and/or othercopyright owners and it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated withthese rights. • Users may download and print one copy of any publication from Discovery Research Portal for the purpose of private study or research. • You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain. • You may freely distribute the URL identifying the publication in the public portal.Take down policyIf you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediatelyand investigate your claim.Download date: 17. Aug. 2023Proceedings of Tailings and Mine Waste 2019 November 17–20, 2019, Vancouver, Canada Published by the University of British Columbia, 2019 265 Hazard Assessment of Tailing Dams Slope Instability by Finite Element Analyses with Stochastic Parameter Input Stefano Utili, Newcastle University, UK  Marco Previtali, University of Milano Bicocca, Italy and Dundee University, UK Riccardo Castellanza, University of Milano Bicocca and EG4 Risk Sr, Italy  Giovanni Crosta, University of Milano Bicocca, Italy Abstract TAILINGS AND MINE WASTE 2019  VANCOUVER, CANADA 266 Introduction Method Figure 1: Tailings dam geometry and geomaterials  Figure 2: FEM mesh with boundary conditions for the scenarios considered HAZARD ASSESSMENT OF TAILING DAMS SLOPE INSTABILITY BY FINITE ELEMENT ANALYSES WITH STOCHASTIC PARAMETER INPUT 267 •••••TAILINGS AND MINE WASTE 2019  VANCOUVER, CANADA 268 Table 1: Material parameters  Material                 Earthfill 70,000 0.3 0.74 18 22  5 26 Tailing settled 35,000 0.3 0.22 18 22  0 25 Tailing wet 20,000 0.3 0.22 18 22  0 15 Drain 50,000 0.3 0.44 18 22  0 34 Foundation 100,000 0.3 0.53 18 22  – – Figure 3: Schematic methodological approach  Stochastic input HAZARD ASSESSMENT OF TAILING DAMS SLOPE INSTABILITY BY FINITE ELEMENT ANALYSES WITH STOCHASTIC PARAMETER INPUT 269 Figure 4: Normal distribution assumed for earthfill  (better known) and for tailing settled (mode uncertainties)   Figure 5: LHS stochastic set of data for the three input parameter TAILINGS AND MINE WASTE 2019  VANCOUVER, CANADA 270 Table 2: Stochastic set for input in the deterministic analyses  Deterministic FEM analyses Figure 6: Total displacement at failure for Set #25 – Scenario #1   Set #                                                                                HAZARD ASSESSMENT OF TAILING DAMS SLOPE INSTABILITY BY FINITE ELEMENT ANALYSES WITH STOCHASTIC PARAMETER INPUT 271 Figure 7: Total displacement at failure for Set #25 – Scenario #4   Figure 8: Progressive failure observed for Set #25 –  Scenario #4 (from the top: SRF=1; SRF=1.4; SRF=1.45) TAILINGS AND MINE WASTE 2019  VANCOUVER, CANADA 272 Figure 9: Progressive failure observed in specific monitoring point  for Set #25 – Scenario #4 by increasing the Strength Reduction Factor (SRF) Stochastic output Table 3: Simulation output in term of Safety Factor FS for each input material set and scenarios  Set # Scenario #1 Scenario #2 Scenario #3  Scenario #4 Scenario #5  1 1.72 1.71 1.66 1.30 1.17 2 2.30 2.20 2.10 1.68 1.55 3 2.03 2.00 1.91 1.54 1.38 4 1.78 1.74 1.65 1.34 1.20 5 1.73 1.70 1.62 1.34 1.16 6 1.96 1.95 1.84 1.50 1.34 7 2.01 2.00 1.94 1.53 1.36 8 1.82 1.80 1.72 1.40 1.23 9 2.23 2.21 2.12 1.70 1.52 10 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 11 1.66 1.63 1.55 1.29 1.11 12 1.53 1.51 1.43 1.20 1.00 13 1.78 1.74 1.65 1.38 1.20 14 1.68 1.65 1.56 1.28 1.13 15 1.43 1.40 1.33 1.10 1.00 Set # Scenario #1 Scenario #2 Scenario #3  Scenario #4 Scenario #5  16 2.25 2.21 2.10 1.71 1.53 17 1.18 1.15 1.08 1.00 1.00 18 1.61 1.59 1.50 1.23 1.08 19 1.28 1.26 1.20 1.00 1.00 20 1.65 1.63 1.54 1.28 1.11 21 1.60 1.56 1.48 1.23 1.06 22 1.85 1.83 1.78 1.41 1.25 23 1.23 1.20 1.15 1.00 1.00 24 1.46 1.43 1.36 1.13 1.00 25 1.90 1.88 1.78 1.45 1.28 26 2.13 2.10 2.00 1.63 1.43 27 1.04 1.02 1.00 1.00 1.00 28 1.91 1.91 1.89 1.45 1.33 29 1.36 1.35 1.26 1.06 1.00 30 1.78 1.78 1.74 1.33 1.25 HAZARD ASSESSMENT OF TAILING DAMS SLOPE INSTABILITY BY FINITE ELEMENT ANALYSES WITH STOCHASTIC PARAMETER INPUT 273 Table 4: FS mean value, standard deviation and  Probability of Failure associated to the different Scenarios  Scenario #1 Scenario #2 Scenario #3 Scenario #4 Scenario #5 FS – Mean value 1,71 1,69 1,61 1,32 1,18 Standard deviation 0,32 0,31 0,30 0,21 0,17 PF Probability of Failure 2.37 2.86 4.28 9.88 20.57 Figure 10: Stochastic distribution of Safety Factor (FS)  and mean values and standard deviation for each scenario TAILINGS AND MINE WASTE 2019  VANCOUVER, CANADA 274 Figure 11: Density of probability for the normal distribution of Factor of Safety fitting the output data for each scenario; Conclusion Bibliography HAZARD ASSESSMENT OF TAILING DAMS SLOPE INSTABILITY BY FINITE ELEMENT ANALYSES WITH STOCHASTIC PARAMETER INPUT 275 

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Hazard Assessment of Tailing Dams Slope Instability by Finite Element Analyses with Stochastic Parameter Input

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