Olasılıksal sismik tehlike analizleri için yer hareketi tahmin denklemlerinin sıralanmasında ve seçilmesinde kullanılacak pratik araçlar ve bölgesel bir yer hareketi tahmin denkleminin geliştirilmesi.

Abstract

This study starts summarizing the progresses in ground-motion databases and ground-motion models in pan-European region and consequent seismic hazard comparisons conducted for individual local and global predictive models. Then, the study presents the compilation of the Middle East region and Turkish ground-motion databases with principle seismological features to be mainly used in predictive model selection process in these regions. In the following step, using a high standard subset of the Middle East ground-motion database, a ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) is developed for Turkey and Iran to investigate the possible regional effects on ground-motion amplitudes in shallow active crustal earthquakes. Next part introduces a method for ranking and selection of GMPEs based on Euclidean distance concept. The proposed method is capable of determining the proper set of predictive models for regional or site-specific probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) under a given set of observed ground-motion data. To this end, an alternative method for establishing ground-motion logic-tree framework for PSHA is represented in the following part of the study. The proposed method evaluates the effects of the predictive models and corresponding branch weights selected for logic-tree framework to properly capture the epistemic uncertainty in seismic hazard analysis. As a final point, a ground-motion logic-tree framework combining the functionalities of data-driven GMPE testing methods and logic-tree based sensitivity approach are proposed for shallow active crustal regions in EMME (Earthquake Model of the Middle East Region) project.Ph.D. - Doctoral Progra