The mosquito Aedes albopictus has been dispersed worldwide by human activities. This species
is an important vector of arboviruses, including dengue, chikungunya and Zika and is now one of the
greatest threats to global public health. Due to the medical importance of this species, previous studies
have examined its ecological requirements and predicted its potential distribution for various regions
of the world. However, to date, there is no attempt to perform such analyses across European cities
and at a high spatial detail. Hence, in this work we aim to fill this gap by modelling the potential
distribution of the species across the major functional urban areas of Europe, using high resolution
predictors. The modelling tested for associations between the observed distribution of the species and
spatial variables considered relevant in determining its distribution, particularly climate and land use.
Complementary models also examined the possibility of spatial bias in the mosquito distribution data
as driven simply by higher human observational capacity. Model results suggest the absence of
significant observational bias and that densely urbanized urban together with higher temperatures and
water availability in drier months favor the occurrence of the species. The models were also applied to
predict areas under susceptibility of establishment of the species in Lisbon, a city where the species
has not yet been observed. From this prediction we found that the areas under higher susceptibility are
mainly associated to the urban centers, whereas green areas, most notably Monsanto Park, are least
susceptible. Finally, we developed a risk map, resulting from the intersection of susceptibility and
human population, which allowed pinpointing the areas in the city where the threats inflicted by the
species are higher.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio
