Combined Digital Economic-Epidemic Model for the Evaluation of Economic Results of Several Scenarios of Quarantine Measures

Abstract

Purpose: Substantiation of the selection of the potential option of the implementation of quarantine measures and of the obtaining of evaluations of its potential economic consequences for Moscow on the basis of the use of instruments of the combined digital economic-epidemic model, developed by authors. Methods: In order to carry out the research the modified SIR-model was used as the basic epidemic one. As the economic growth model was used the model of probability of mixed economic systems, developed by authors. The consolidation of such models to its lowest terms allowed to form the combined digital economic-epidemic model. As basic ones were considered three potentially possible options for the implementation of quarantine measures. On the basis of the model, developed by authors, were developed feasibility studies for each of three options of quarantine measures. While carrying out calculations as initial terms was adopted the dynamics of the daily accrual of people, infected withCOVID-19 for the week between 01.04 and 08.04.2020. Result: On the basis of the combined digital economic-epidemic model were determined possible economic consequences at the implementation of basic options of quarantine measures, feasibility studies were provided, its scientific analysis has been performed with the substantiation of the development of one of considered options. As most optimal option of the implementation of quarantine measures B option was selected. Conclusion: The offered model and settlements, performed on its basis, can be applied in all regions of Russia in order to select the potential option of the implementation of quarantine measures and of the evaluation of possible economic consequences for each region. This is a universal model. With it can be studied events of all epidemiologic periods and world regions