'Periodica Polytechnica Budapest University of Technology and Economics'
Abstract
With considering sewage pipe network upgrading projects in the “villages” in cities, the optimization of construction resources and the assessment of delay risks could be achieved. Based on the schedule-cost hypothetical theory, the mathematical model with constraint indicators was established to obtain the expression of optimal resource input, and conclude the method to analyze the schedule uncertainties. The analysis showed that cyclical footage of pipe could be regarded as a relatively fixed value, and the cost can be regarded as a function that depending on the number of working teams. The optimal number of teams and the optimal schedule occurred when the minimum total cost achieved. In the case of insufficient meteorological data, the Monte Carlo simulation method and uncertainty analysis method can be applied to assess the impact of rainfall on the total construction period, correspondingly the probability of such risk could be derived. The calculation showed that the risk of overdue completion varied significantly according to the construction starting time. It was necessary to take rainfall risk into consideration and make corresponding strategies and measures
