Development of Parametric Model of Prediction and Evaluation of the Quality Level of Educational Institutions

Abstract

The purpose of the study was the development of a parametric model for prediction and actual evaluation of the quality level of work of educational institution.We created the structure of the processes of educational institution, which includes 7 levels of processes in the sequence of their execution.To determine parameters of influence of some processes on others, the links between each process and other processes were analyzed. With the help of expert assessment, we defined values of parameters of influence on each process. We performed selection of experts, for whom a statistical analysis of the results of expert evaluations demonstrated consistency in judgments at the medium and high level – 91 %, the significance of these assessments reached 78 % by the criterion of Pearson.The defined values of parameters helped to create the model of the process of educational institution. This model allows calculating consistently by the levels of processes the quality of work of each process by the determined function that takes as its basis the level of quality of initial resources and uses the defined parameters and the structure of processes for the calculation. The calculated quality is predictable, demonstrating either increase or decrease in the quality level of each process and the entire educational institution in future.The actual assessment of quality of each process of educational institution is recommended to perform based on verbal questionnaires, the basis of which is the developed table of ten degrees of estimation of quality level. The scale of degrees of assessment was expanded in comparison with the recommendations of the ISO 9004 standard to align actual evaluations with the process of prediction of quality level and consequent comparison of their results.As a result of the study, we created a parametrical model which enables us to predict the quality of work of educational institution based on rational allocation of initial resources. Based on the model, it is possible to realistically evaluate the quality of work of all processes of educational institution for further improvement in their work and adjustment of the model for prediction