Residential electrification of transport and heat is changing consumption and
its characteristics significantly. Previous studies have demonstrated the
impact of socio-techno-economic determinants on residential consumption.
However, they fail to capture the distributional characteristics of such
consumer groups, which impact network planning and flexibility assessment.
Using actual residential electricity consumption profile data for 720,000
households in Denmark, we demonstrate that heat pumps are more likely to
influence aggregated peak consumption than electric vehicles. At the same time,
other socio-economic factors, such as occupancy, dwelling area and income, show
little impact. Comparing the extrapolation of a comprehensive rollout of heat
pumps or electric vehicles indicates that the most common consumer category
deploying heat pumps has 14% more maximum consumption during peak load hours,
46% more average consumption and twice the higher median compared to households
owning an electric vehicle. Electric vehicle show already flexibility with
coincidence factors that ranges between 5-15% with a maximum of 17% whereas
heat pumps are mostly baseload. The detailed and holistic outcomes of this
study support flexibility assessment and grid planning in future studies but
also the operation of flexible technologies.Comment: 37 pages, 18 figures, journal articl
