Public Transit Arrival Prediction: a Seq2Seq RNN Approach

Abstract

Arrival/Travel times for public transit exhibit variability on account of factors like seasonality, dwell times at bus stops, traffic signals, travel demand fluctuation etc. The developing world in particular is plagued by additional factors like lack of lane discipline, excess vehicles, diverse modes of transport and so on. This renders the bus arrival time prediction (BATP) to be a challenging problem especially in the developing world. A novel data-driven model based on recurrent neural networks (RNNs) is proposed for BATP (in real-time) in the current work. The model intelligently incorporates both spatial and temporal correlations in a unique (non-linear) fashion distinct from existing approaches. In particular, we propose a Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) based Encoder-Decoder(ED) OR Seq2Seq RNN model (originally introduced for language translation) for BATP. The geometry of the dynamic real time BATP problem enables a nice fit with the Encoder-Decoder based RNN structure. We feed relevant additional synchronized inputs (from previous trips) at each step of the decoder (a feature classically unexplored in machine translation applications). Further motivated from accurately modelling congestion influences on travel time prediction, we additionally propose to use a bidirectional layer at the decoder (something unexplored in other time-series based ED application contexts). The effectiveness of the proposed algorithms is demonstrated on real field data collected from challenging traffic conditions. Our experiments indicate that the proposed method outperforms diverse existing state-of-art data-driven approaches proposed for the same problem