Asymmetric price transmission: an empirical analysis of the relationship between UG-2 chrome ore, charge chrome, nickel and Chinese domestic 304 stainless steel cold rolled coil

Abstract

The goal of this study was to determine whether asymmetric price transmission (APT) exists between the prices of South African UG-2 Chrome ore, Charge Chrome, Nickel and Chinese Domestic 304 Stainless steel Cold Rolled Coil prices. Monthly time series data for the period January 2009 to July 2019 was analysed. The Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributive Lag (NARDL) model was applied to test for the presence of price asymmetry between the four variables. Firstly, it was observed that the four variables are cointegrated in the long-run. Secondly, no evidence of price asymmetry was found to be present within the Stainless steel supply chain. The reason for this is most likely due to the extremely close-knit and highly concentrated nature of this industry at each level within the supply chain. The industry can be very opaque to external observers even though the distribution of pricing information is very efficient for participants within the industry