Euroasia, Energy cooperation or conflict? PART I.: Potentials of Russia and Russian Companies in Oil and Gas Businesses

Abstract

Rast cijena nafte na svjetskom tržištu, s udvostručenjem od početka 2007. do lipnja 2008., potiče interes za traženje objašnjenja tog kretanja. Mnogi se ne zadovoljavaju objašnjenjem da se cijena formira ponudom i potražnjom na robnim burzama te da potražnja raste brže od ponude. Pače, ova posljednja činjenica ponekog potiče na traženje objašnjenja o ulasku u vrh životne krivulje nafte. Istodobno, visoka europska ovisnost o uvozu nafte i plina te prijepori između EU i Rusije o nekim načelima energetske suradnje, počam od Europske energetske povelje koja nikad nije ratificirana u Dumi, umjesto energetske suradnje ima za posljedicu međusobno nepovjerenje. S tim motivima autor će, u trodijelnom radu, preispitati potencijal Rusije i Kaspijske regije s motrišta, prvenstveno, europskih potreba te infrastrukture za evakuaciju nafte i plina prema Europi. Glede potencijala Rusije, neki noviji uglednici, i sami iz Rusije, upozoravaju na stagnantne tokove u proizvodnji, poglavito nafte ali i plina. Prema tome, valja uzeti u obzir i ta upozorenja.Steep rise of oil prices in international market, which doubled in June 2008 in respect to the levels in early 2007, instigated interest for analyzing the reasons of such oil price movements. Many are not satisfied with an explanation about disbalance of supply and demand reflected in skyrocketing prices on mercantile exchanges as demand grows faster than supply. The latter fact supports arguments about imminent peak oil. At the same time, Europe’s high dependence on oil and gas imports, controversies between the EU and Russia on some principles of energy cooperation, starting from the Energy Charter Treaty which has never been ratified in duma, lead to a lack of trust instead of energy cooperation. These issues motivated the author to present, in a 3-part study, the potentials of Russia and the Caspian region for the supply of oil and gas, primarily from the perspective of european infrastructure requirements necessary for the transit of oil and gas to Europe. As for Russian potentials, some authors, being from Russia themselves, warn about stagnating production, particularly oil, but also natural gas. Consequently, these warnings should be taken into account