The reintroduction of military conscription has frequently been proposed as a way to instil national values in younger citizens. These arguments have gained added significance in Europe following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Drawing on new research, Vincenzo Bove, Riccardo Di Leo and Marco Giani argue that many of the proposed benefits of conscription are difficult to identify empirically. Indeed, far from fostering cohesion among citizens, conscription appears to be linked to a decline in institutional trust

Bove, Vincenzo

Di Leo, Riccardo

Giani, Marco

English

LSE Research Online

Sweden’s	general	election:	Winners,	losers,	and	whathappens	nextThe	Swedish	general	election	held	on	11	September	produced	a	small	majority	for	the	opposition	right	bloc.Jonathan	Polk	assesses	what	the	results	mean	for	Swedish	politics.The	Social	Democratic	Party	received	the	most	votes	in	the	Swedish	parliamentary	election	held	on	11	September2022.	The	party,	in	government	since	2014,	even	increased	its	vote	share	to	30.3%,	up	two	percentage	points	fromthe	previous	election	in	2018.Yet	the	focus	of	attention	in	Sweden	has	been	on	the	continued	rise	of	the	anti-immigration	Sweden	Democrats,	afar-right	party	that	has	expanded	its	vote	share	from	5.7%	in	2010,	the	year	of	its	electoral	breakthrough	at	thenational	level,	to	20.5%	in	2022.	In	just	over	a	decade	and	only	four	electoral	cycles	since	first	entering	parliament,the	Sweden	Democrats	have	gone	from	a	marginal,	ostracised	party	to	the	second	largest	party	in	Sweden	and	thelargest	party	of	the	right	bloc.	But	it	is	the	centre-right	Moderates,	now	the	third	largest	party,	that	will	in	alllikelihood	get	the	first	chance	to	form	a	government.Winners	and	losersDespite	her	party	receiving	the	most	votes,	Magdalena	Andersson,	the	leader	of	the	Social	Democrats,	announcedon	Wednesday	night	that	she	will	step	down	as	prime	minister	today.	There	are	eight	political	parties	currently	inSweden’s	legislature,	the	Riksdag,	and	the	same	eight	parties	crossed	the	electoral	threshold	for	representation	inthe	next	legislative	term.Of	these	eight	parties,	four	supported	Andersson	for	prime	minister:	the	Social	Democrats	(S),	the	Centre	Party	(C),the	Left	Party	(V),	and	the	Greens	(MP).	The	349	seats	in	the	Riksdag,	require	175	for	a	majority,	and	although	theinitial	exit	poll	indicated	a	slim	majority	for	this	red-green	bloc,	as	vote	counting	continued	the	results	swung	to	abare	majority	for	the	opposition	right	bloc.While	the	vote	shares	of	the	Social	Democrats	and	the	Greens	increased,	both	the	Centre	Party	and	the	Left	Partylost	sufficient	support	compared	to	2018	to	deprive	the	left	bloc	of	a	majority.	There	is	a	large	gap	between	theCentre	Party	and	the	Left	Party	on	economic	policies,	producing	ideological	strain	for	both	parties.	The	SocialDemocrats’	location	between	the	Centre	Party	and	the	Left	Party	on	the	economic	left-right	dimension	likelycomplicated	campaign	message	clarity	for	all	three	parties	on	these	topics.The	largest	party	of	the	right	bloc	up	until	this	year	was	the	Moderates	(M),	led	by	Ulf	Kristersson.	Alongside	theModerates,	the	right	bloc	also	contains	the	Sweden	Democrats	(SD),	Christian	Democrats	(KD),	and	Liberals	(L).With	99%	of	the	votes	counted,	this	four-party	opposition	bloc	has	176	seats,	just	one	more	than	the	amountnecessary	to	support	a	change	in	government.A	gap	of	just	50,000	votes	separated	the	two	blocs	on	election	night.	This	was	fewer	than	the	97,724	votes	going	toparties	that	did	not	reach	the	electoral	threshold,	and	fewer	also	than	the	92,000	people	currently	waiting	fordecisions	on	citizenship	applications	from	the	migration	agency.Campaign	issuesThe	campaign	was	contested	on	ground	favourable	to	the	Sweden	Democrats,	with	a	focus	on	violent	crime,	issuesof	law	and	order,	and	the	challenges	of	social	segregation.	Given	a	campaign	surrounding	topics	emphasised	bythe	political	right,	high	levels	of	inflation	and	electricity	prices,	and	two	terms	in	government,	it	is	all	the	moreremarkable	that	the	Social	Democrats	received	more	votes	in	2022	than	they	had	in	2018.LSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog: Sweden’s general election: Winners, losers, and what happens next Page 1 of 3		Date originally posted: 2022-09-15Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2022/09/15/swedens-general-election-winners-losers-and-what-happens-next/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/Both	the	Moderates	and	even	the	Social	Democrats	stressed	the	need	to	“get	tough”	on	crime	and	generallyembraced	more	conservative	positions	on	questions	related	to	law	and	order	and	immigrant	integration.	This	didlittle	to	stem	the	rise	of	the	Sweden	Democrats.	The	exit	polls	indicate	that	both	the	Social	Democrats	and	theModerates	lost	voters	to	the	Sweden	Democrats,	with	the	Sweden	Democrats	passing	the	Moderates	to	becomethe	second	largest	party	in	the	country.	This	latter	fact	increases	the	complexity	of	negotiations	to	form	a	right-winggovernment.Government	formationKristersson	and	the	Moderates	are	set	to	receive	the	first	opportunity	to	form	a	government	even	though	the	partyreceived	fewer	votes	than	the	Sweden	Democrats.	This	is	because	of	the	lingering	ambivalence	of	the	otherSwedish	parliamentary	parties	towards	the	extremist	roots	of	the	Sweden	Democrats,	a	party	with	a	fascist	andwhite	nationalist	history.Prior	to	the	election,	the	Moderates,	Christian	Democrats,	and	Liberals	all	indicated	that	while	they	were	now	readyto	rely	on	support	from	the	Sweden	Democrats	to	form	a	minority	government,	they	were	unwilling	to	formally	bringthe	party	into	government	and	allocate	it	ministerial	portfolios.	It	remains	to	be	seen	if	the	parties	will	continue	tohold	this	line	after	the	Sweden	Democrats’	strong	showing	at	the	ballot	box,	but	it	highlights	the	reluctance	of	theother	parties	to	support	the	party’s	leader,	Jimmie	Åkesson,	as	prime	minister.If,	however,	the	Sweden	Democrats	are	relegated	to	the	role	of	a	support	party	for	a	minority	right-wing	governmentheaded	by	Kristersson,	the	policy	concessions	demanded	by	Åkesson	will	be	considerable,	given	the	SwedenDemocrats’	electoral	strength.	But	such	concessions	would	in	turn	generate	strain	within	the	right	bloc,	particularlyfor	Liberals,	the	smallest	parliamentary	party,	which	just	cleared	the	4%	threshold	for	representation	in	the	Riksdag.When	the	former	four-party	right	bloc	of	Swedish	parties,	called	the	Alliance,	broke	apart	in	early	2019,disagreements	about	collaboration	with	the	Sweden	Democrats	were	at	the	root	of	the	split.	While	the	ChristianDemocrats	and	Moderates	rather	quickly	endorsed	working	with	the	Sweden	Democrats	to	form	a	right-winggovernment	ahead	of	2022,	the	Liberals	and	Centre	Party	did	not.The	Liberals	spent	much	of	the	last	three	years	in	existential	deliberation	about	the	direction	of	the	party,	frequentlyfalling	below	4%	in	the	opinion	polls,	before	finally	deciding	to	join	the	Moderates	and	Christian	Democrats	incampaigning	for	a	right-wing	government	with	the	support	of	the	Sweden	Democrats.	This	decision	split	the	partyand	with	only	a	one	or	two	seat	margin,	Kristersson	would	have	little	if	any	room	for	dissent	in	such	a	governingcoalition.	While	the	government	formation	process	may	not	take	the	134	days	it	did	following	the	2018	election,	anunusually	long	time	in	Sweden,	it	will	likely	still	be	complex	and	difficult	this	time	around.What	next?Important	actors	to	watch	in	the	next	legislative	term	include	politicians	from	the	Liberals,	Centre	Party,	and	SwedenDemocrats.	As	mentioned,	the	Liberals	remain	internally	divided	on	collaboration	with	the	Sweden	Democrats	andone	or	two	Liberal	members	of	parliament	could	make	the	difference	between	legislative	success	or	failure	for	aright-wing	government.	That	said,	the	party	barely	crossed	the	4%	threshold	and	it	is	unlikely	to	be	eager	for	earlyelections	to	be	called,	which	could	hold	back	any	voices	of	dissent	within	the	party	for	the	time	being.Unlike	the	Liberals,	who	broke	to	the	right,	the	Centre	Party,	also	a	former	member	of	the	Alliance,	chose	theopposite	direction,	categorically	refusing	to	work	with	the	Sweden	Democrats	and	instead	supporting	anAndersson-led	Social	Democrat	government.	The	Centre	Party’s	6.7%	of	the	vote	in	2022	represents	a	decline	ofnearly	two	percentage	points	and	the	association	with	the	red-green	bloc	generated	tension	within	the	party’s	right-wing.It	remains	to	be	seen	if	the	underwhelming	showing	at	the	polls	in	2022	will	empower	voices	calling	for	a	differentdirection	for	the	Centre	Party.	One	complicating	factor	is	the	party’s	long	journey	to	becoming	a	solidly	socio-culturally	liberal	party	over	the	past	twenty	years,	making	any	collaboration	with	the	Sweden	Democrats	quite	achallenge	(though	a	challenge	the	Liberals	appear	to	have	embraced).LSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog: Sweden’s general election: Winners, losers, and what happens next Page 2 of 3		Date originally posted: 2022-09-15Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2022/09/15/swedens-general-election-winners-losers-and-what-happens-next/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/Finally,	the	behaviour	of	individual	Sweden	Democrat	members	of	parliament	could	have	considerableconsequences.	In	an	attempt	to	detoxify	the	party,	Åkesson	and	the	Sweden	Democrats	have	expelled	partymembers	for	overt	extremism	and	racism	in	the	past.	With	its	largest	parliamentary	delegation	yet,	it	will	beimportant	to	see	if	the	party	and	its	individual	members	of	parliament	are	able	to	avoid	scandals	or	other	actionsthat	could	jeopardise	its	capacity	to	implement	preferred	policies.The	Social	Democratic	minority	governments	that	followed	the	2018	election	were	weak,	strained	by	largeideological	differences	between	support	parties.	With	what	is	currently	a	two-seat	margin	for	error	and	a	stridentlyanti-establishment,	nativist	party	as	the	largest	parliamentary	force	in	any	right-wing	bloc,	the	new	governmentcould	face	an	equally	tenuous	arrangement.Alternatively,	we	may	see	a	further	consolidation	of	the	right-nationalist	tone	of	the	2022	campaign	in	the	ideologyand	policymaking	of	the	incoming	government.	These	developments	will	have	additional	consequences	for	Europegiven	Sweden	takes	over	the	presidency	of	the	Council	of	the	European	Union	in	January	2023.A	version	of	this	article	originally	appeared	at	whogoverns.euNote:	This	article	gives	the	views	of	the	author,	not	the	position	of	EUROPP	–	European	Politics	and	Policy	or	theLondon	School	of	Economics.	Featured	image	credit:	European	CouncilLSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog: Sweden’s general election: Winners, losers, and what happens next Page 3 of 3		Date originally posted: 2022-09-15Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2022/09/15/swedens-general-election-winners-losers-and-what-happens-next/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/

Why reintroducing military conscription in Europe would be counterproductive

http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/117027/1/europpblog_2022_09_15_swedens_general_election_winners_losers_and_1_.pdf

Why reintroducing military conscription in Europe would be counterproductive

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