Weather extremes and high population growth are challenging the achievement of SDG 2 Zero Hunger in West Africa. It is essential to understand how crop production decisions by farmers affect the reliability of food production and the stability of their livelihoods.
• Future food security scenarios are often based on models that ignore annual weather variability and weather extremes. As a result, this approach also disregards the risk of having lower than expected yields, with adverse consequences for food security and
farmer livelihoods.
• We propose a stochastic modelling framework that allows to study the reliability of food production under crop yield uncertainty, and explore different strategies to increase this reliability at a minimum cost
