Hargreaves, Doug

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 QUT Digital Repository:  http://eprints.qut.edu.au/39313Hargreaves, Doug (2010) Population Growth and Infrastructure in Australia - 2050. In: 5th Civil Engineering Conference in the Asian Region (CECAR), 8-12 August 2010, Sydney, NSW, Australia.  © Copyright 2010 (please consult the author)  POPULATION GROWTH AND INFRASTRUCTURE IN AUSTRALIA - 2050  Author: Professor Doug Hargreaves National President  Engineers Australia 11 National Circuit Barton ACT 2600 dhargreaves@engineersaustralia.org.au  Introduction  As a nation, Australia  must overcome a number of challenges if we are to be prosperous in terms of having a sustainable social, economic and physical environment, equitably shared by all Australians.   These challenges are complex at a global and local level, and range from climate change, economic issues, health, and population growth and the consequent equitable and sustainable access to resources.   Population growth has come to the fore as an issue of public debate in Australia.   Today, I would like to discuss this and outline what we see are the issues that will arise in the future with regard to our infrastructure needs. It is our view that careful planning around Australia’s future population is needed to ensure the health, wealth and well being of all Australians.   Population Growth  In January this year, the Australian Government released the 2010 Inter-Generational Report, titled “Australia to 2050: Future Challenges”. The report has motivated much discussion about the pressures that will come with an increased population in Australia.   The report is an analytical tool that is based on assumptions and projections. Some projections include the following:  Australia’s population is expected to grow over the next 40 years. It is also expected to age.  We currently have a population of around 22 million, with just under 3 million aged 65 and older.  Projections to 2050 are for a population of around 36 million, with more than 8 million aged 65 and over.  The location of this growth is likely to be very uneven across Australia.  Sydney and Melbourne are projected to be cities of 6.5 million or more.  D Hargreaves Page 2  Brisbane is projected to be approaching Sydney’s present size and Perth will rapidly increase to over 3.15 million people.   Adelaide is projected to experience modest growth, but will likely be about the present size of Perth.   Hobart, Darwin and Canberra will grow more slowly and will remain comparatively small cities.  The population outside of capital cities also is expected to increase.   Almost 60% of this expansion is projected to be in Queensland, with major implications for centres like Townsville, Cairns, Ipswich and Rockhampton.   In contrast, outside of Hobart, the Tasmanian population is expected to increase by only 3.4%.  In May this year, Australia’s first Minister for Population was appointed. The new Minister’s first task was to develop Australia’s first comprehensive “Population Strategy”. Depending on the results of the upcoming Federal election, the work will include consideration of:  The social and economic infrastructure necessary to support a growing population.   The opportunities that a growing population will create for economic growth and the development of regional cities and communities.   The challenges associated with population growth, including the impacts on the environment, water and urban congestion.  A whole of government perspective to these issues.  This year, I announced that Engineers Australia would engage in this discussion on the basis that we, meaning the engineering profession, will be responsible for conceiving, designing, implementing and operating much, if not all, of the required infrastructure to support the future population of this country. We are therefore ideally placed to ensure that all of this happens in an appropriate and sustainable matter.   I believe this issue is probably the most important issue facing this country in the longer term.  Population models focus on demographic assumptions and not the employment, housing, education, water, land and physical infrastructure necessary to sustain additional people. Many practical problems arise when these issues are considered.  We must also remember that given the rapid, even accelerating, pace of change, the world of tomorrow will be a vastly different world from the world of today. We must not only take into account technological, economic and scoail changes, but must also factor in climate change. While projections about the impacts of climate change are uncertain, we will need to develop adaptation responses, which includes appropriate long-term planning for infrastructure and services, particularly for energy, water and agriculture.  D Hargreaves Page 3   In developing a new environment, engineers must think in terms of:  the sustainable use of resources   creating a clean and low carbon emission environment  measures to cope with the impacts of climate change,   security and safety issues, as well as   providing opportunities of all Australians to participate in society and have continuing access to the basic infrastructure and services that many of us take for granted   Focussing solutions in these areas can make a significant difference to our future.   The concept of sustainability will influence almost all engineering developments and the potential effects on the environment, long term and short term, proximate and remote, will be integrated routinely into engineering design and planning.   While infrastructure may be a topic that is dear to the hearts of engineers, sustainable infrastructure is essential to us all.   It has become common-place to adopt the word “sustainable” as an adjective liberally sprinkled throughout the presentations on all manner of issues relating to development and to the exploitation of natural resources. It is equally common-place to find little connection between the use of the term sustainability and what is proposed.   However, there is increasing recognition in many communities that sustainable development is too important for our future to be dealt with in this way. Slowly but surely more robust approaches to sustainability are being discussed and considered to guide the development policies. Included in the sustainability debate are issues such as water shortages and management, transport congestion and demand placed on energy and other services.   In terms of our urban areas, about 80% of the population live in cities, with most in the capital cities. Most matters relating to the development and management of urban areas are the responsibility of the State, Territory and local governments and leadership from these levels of government is imperative.   Engineers Australia has been a proponent of sustainable development policies for over 20 years, particularly in terms of infrastructure. Throughout this period Engineers Australia had accepted the Brundtland definition of sustainable development; that is - development that meets the needs of the present generation without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. We have a sustainability charter that states that sustainability D Hargreaves Page 4 should be at the heart of mainstream policy and administration in all aspects of human endeavour.    We believe that governments need to set policies and frameworks, but these need to be influenced by underlying sustainability concepts and principles.   Engineers have the opportunity to influence the character of the thousands of everyday decisions that flow from these sustainability concepts and principles. They do this through their involvement in the design and construction of all aspects of infrastructure, from roads, bridges, buildings to communications networks, as well as in the service delivery of utilities (public or otherwise) such as power, water, waste management, and the like.  The engineering profession is central to providing solutions across the board, but particularly the transport, energy, water, and telecommunications infrastructure that will be central to ensuring that Australia’s future is sustainable and competitive in the global economy.   Transport  Population growth will see increased congestion due to the movement of people and freight particularly in urban areas. It is also likely to see the development of new urban centres and cities. New and better transport corridors will need to be developed, particularly linking coastal and inland towns and cities of the future, and solutions such as high speed trains between major urban areas will be required.    We must improve mass transport mechanisms, which will require a large shift from road to rail for people and freight.   Engineers are involved in improving the transport task by developing integrated transport networks of road, rail, sea and air to provide a seamless transport task, whether for people or for freight.   Energy   Sustainable energy solutions are not just about ensuring the provision of energy for our future population. Australia also faces difficult decisions to balance the attractions of cheap and plentiful coal supplies with the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.   With the exception of oil, Australia has a plentiful supply of primary energy resources, but reducing greenhouse gas emissions will require a growing reliance on non-carbon based resources.    We will need a diversified portfolio solutions to make our energy use sustainable. We will need to look at local generation, and consider options such D Hargreaves Page 5 as wind generation, geothermal, solar and wave energy. For the moment, nuclear power is not on the table for debate by Australian governments.   We will also need to have a greater focus on energy efficiency measures and the community and industry will need to change their expectations as the costs of electricity rise from a very low cost base to accommodate efficiencies and adaptation to climate change. Our energy mix must move from its current state and this will require innovative regulatory regimes and long-term planning.  Engineers Australia’s role has been, and will continue to be, in leading capacity building to innovate for more sustainable, eco-efficient and less polluting outcomes in engineering practice. The role of engineers will be in developing energy efficient power plants, developing and improving renewable energy options, and ensuring that energy efficient products and processes are introduced.    Water  In terms of water, Australia has experienced many drought situations in the past, and these have posed serious challenges for water resources.   Reservoirs in cities have experienced water levels sufficiently low to convince authorities to impose strict water restrictions, in many cases for prolonged periods. At the same time, our past approach to managing irrigation has resulted in environmental degradation that has threatened the livelihood of rural producers and country towns.   Many of Australia’s water problems are the result of past practices dating from times when water was in abundant supply. Reservoirs created an impression of plentiful water, and cheap water prices reflected long gone development objectives. Once used, waste water was seen as a problem to be disposed as quickly and inexpensively as possible. Storm water run-off flows into drains, creeks, and rivers, and ultimately the ocean, unable to be captured and stored.   Thankfully, we have seen substantial moves in water reform in recent times, with a shift in emphasis to the effectiveness of water use and significantly changed water management practices. Water prices are being set so they reflect the costs of collection and distribution infrastructure, and in time, will reflect the scarcity value of water. We also have long-term water saving rules. Engineers are involved in upgrading water infrastructure and the design, construction and maintenance of new water supply sources such as desalination plants.   According to a 2007 report by the Australian Academy of Technological Sciences and Engineering (ATSE), about the technological implications of an Australian population of 30 million by 2050, Australia will need to draw on a diversity of sources that are independent of rainfall and run-off. This conclusion D Hargreaves Page 6 has been confirmed in Engineers Australia’s 2010 State and Territory Infrastructure Report Cards.   Telecommunications   Australia’s telecommunications infrastructure is a vital component of effective economic activity and growth, and has a fundamental impact on the Australian community’s standard of living. Telecommunications infrastructure provides the means for business to communicate with suppliers, customers and employees and allows local business to access Australia’s and the world’s marketplace. Individuals are able to broaden their communications networks and their access to information.   Inadequate communications facilities are a major disadvantage to Australia’s future competitiveness in a global environment.     The size of our country, population growth, the expansion of existing urban areas and growth of new areas, as well as a rapidly changing technological environment will produce many challenges for the engineering profession over the coming decades.   Social infrastructure  Population growth and the challenge of an aging population will mean that we will need more social infrastructure, such as health, aged care and welfare facilities. Technological change will mean changes to our educational facilities, particularly where rapid change requires constant upgrading of workers skills.     Conclusion  Charting our future course is not someone else’s problem – we all have a role to play. It requires leadership, from people in government, business, industry and the wider community.   We in the engineering profession have a contribution – and an obligation – to provide leadership on a range of issues: • To understand and explain the impacts of technology on our modern lives  • To advocate and influence governments at all levels  • To create infrastructure that is sustainable by design • To solve problems associated with technology, especially in regard to climate change, energy, water and infrastructure  • To invent, innovate and turn dreams into reality  It will be engineers at a local level who will be at the forefront of making Australia prosperous in terms of having a sustainable social, economic and physical environment, equitably shared by all Australians. D Hargreaves Page 7  BRIEF BIOGRAPHY  Professor Doug Hargreaves is Head of School of Engineering Systems within the Faculty of Built Environment and Engineering at Queensland University of Technology.  He is currently the National President of Engineers Australia.  His qualifications include: BEng(Mech)(QIT) 1972-75; MSc (with Distinction) Tribology (University of Leeds) 1977-78; PhD (University of Leeds) 1978-81 (Fluid Film Lubrication).  Membership of professional bodies include: Fellow, The Institution of Engineers, Australia (FIEAust); EngExec, CPEng; Registered Professional Engineer of Queensland (RPEQ); Member, The Institution of Mechanical Engineers (MIMechE); Member, Australian Society of Sugar Cane Technologists (MASSCT); Member, Society of Tribologists and Lubrication Engineers (M STLE); Member, Australasian Association for Engineering Education; Member of Australian Institute of Company Directors (MAICD).  He has contributed to education in the wider community through publication of a textbook on elastohydrodynamic lubrication and continuing education programs such as the "Bearings: Selection, Design and Lubrication" course. His research interests fall within the discipline of tribology (friction, lubrication and wear) and the education of engineering undergraduates. The particular areas of tribological research include the use of environmentally friendly lubricants in all machinery including water as a lubricant.  He has published over 30 papers in engineering education and more than 80 in tribology and/or tribological applications.  

Population Growth and Infrastructure in Australia - 2050

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