Rapid economic development in China’s Lake Taihu basin during the past four decades has accelerated nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) loadings to the lake. This has caused a shift from mesotrophic to hypertrophic conditions, symptomized by harmful cyanobacterial blooms (CyanoHABs). The relationships between phytoplankton biomass as chlorophyll a (Chla) and nutrients as total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) were analyzed using historical data from 1992 to 2012 to link the response of CyanoHAB potential to long-term nutrient changes. Over the twenty year study period, annual mean Chla showed significantly positive correlations with both annual mean TN and TP (P 20 μg L−1) was compared to TN and TP to determine nutrient-bloom thresholds. A decline in bloom risk is expected if TN remains below 1.0 mg L−1 and TP below 0.08 mg L−1
