Integrating artificial neural networks, simulation and optimisation techniques in improving public emergency ambulance preparedness for heterogeneous regions under stochastic environments.

Abstract

Doctoral Degree. University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg.The Bulawayo Emergency Medical Services (BEMS) department continues to rely on judgemental methods with limited use of historical data for future predictions, strategic, tactical and operational level decision making. The rural to urban migration trend has seen the sprouting of new residential areas, and this has put pressure to the limited health, housing and education resources. It is expected that as population increases, there is subsequent increase in demand for public emergency services. However, public emergency ambulance demand trends has been decreasing in Bulawayo over the years. This trend is a sign of limited capacity of the service rather than demand itself. The situation demanded for consolidated efforts across all sectors including research, to restore confidence among residents, reduce health risk and loss of lives. The key objective was to develop a framework that would assist in integrating forecasting, simulation and optimisation techniques for ambulance deployment to predefined locations with heterogeneous demand patterns under stochastic environments, using multiple performance indicators. Secondary data from the Bulawayo Municipality archives from 2010 to 2018 was used for model building and validation. A combination of methods based on mathematics, statistics, operations research and computer science were used for data analysis, model building, sensitivity analysis and numerical experiments. Results indicate that feed forward neural network (FFNN) models are superior to traditional SARIMA models in predicting ambulance demand, over a short-term forecasting horizon. The FFNN model is more inclined to value estimation as compared to SARIMA model, which is directional as depicted by the linear pattern over time. An ANN model with a 7-(4)-1 architecture was selected to forecast 2019 public emergency ambulance demand (PEAD). Peak PEAD is expected in January, March, September and December whilst lower demand is expected for April, June and July 2019. Simulation models developed mimicked the prevailing levels of service for BEMS with six(6) operational ambulances. However. the average response times were well above 15 minutes, with significantly high average queuing times and number of ambulances queuing for service. These performance outcomes were highly undesirable as they pose a great threat to human based outcomes of safety and satisfaction with regards to service delivery. Optimisation for simulation was conducted by simultaneously minimising the average response time and average queuing time, while maximising throughput ratios. Increasing the number of ambulances influenced the average response time below a certain threshold, beyond this threshold, the average response time remained constant rather than decreasing gradually. Ambulance utilisation inversely varied to increase in the feet size. Numerical experiments revealed that reducing the response time results in the reduction in number of ambulances required for optimal ambulance deployment. It is imperative to simultaneously consider multiple performance indicators in ambulance deployment as it balances resource allocation and capacity utilisation, while avoiding idleness of essential equipment and human resources. Management should lobby for de-congestion and resurfacing of old and dilapidated roads to increase access and speed when responding to emergency calls. Future research should investigate the influence of varying service time on optimum deployment plans and consider operational costs, wages and other budgetary constraints that influence the allocation of critical but scarce resources such as personnel, equipment and emergency ambulance response vehicles