Padilla, Dustin

English

ISU ReD: Research and eData

Presentation for the Symposium on BEER November 2022Modeling the Role of Land Conversion on the Spreadof an Epizootic DiseaseDustin Padilla1,*, Xiaoqian Gong2,Charles Perrings31Simon A. Levin Mathematical, Computational, and Modeling Sciences Center, Arizona State University, 1031Palm Walk, Tempe, AZ 85287, USA2School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, Arizona State University, 900 Palm Walk, Tempe, AZ 85281, US3School of Life Sciences and ecoSERVICES Group, Arizona State University, 427 E Tyler Mall,Tempe, AZ 85287,USADustin.Padilla@asu.eduLand conversion and the resulting contact between domesticated and wild species has arguably been thesingle largest contributor to the emergence of novel epizootic and zoonotic diseases in the past century. Anunintended consequence of these interactions is zoonotic or epizootic disease spillovers from wild species tohumans and their domesticates. Disease spillovers are edge effects of land conversion and are sensitive tothe size and shape of converted areas. We combine spatial metrics from landscape ecology with theoreticalepidemiological models to understand how the size and shape of land conversion affect epizootic and zoonoticdisease transmission of single and two species populations. We show that the less compact the convertedarea, and the the greater the depth of the contact zone, the more rapidly will an introduced disease spreadthrough the domesticated population.

Modeling the Role of Land Conversion on the Spread of an Epizootic Disease

https://ir.library.illinoisstate.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1613&context=beer

Modeling the Role of Land Conversion on the Spread of an Epizootic Disease

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ISU ReD: Research and eData