Background: Over two-thirds of the five million annual deaths in
children under five occur in infants, mostly in developing countries
and many after hospital discharge. However, there is a lack of
understanding of which children are at higher risk based on early
clinical predictors. Early identification of vulnerable infants at
high-risk for death post-discharge is important in order to craft
interventional programs. Objectives: To determine potential predictor
variables for post-discharge mortality in infants less than one year of
age who are likely to die after discharge from health facilities in the
developing world. Methods: A two-round modified Delphi process was
conducted, wherein a panel of experts evaluated variables selected from
a systematic literature review. Variables were evaluated based on (1)
predictive value, (2) measurement reliability, (3) availability, and
(4) applicability in low-resource settings. Results: In the first
round, 18 experts evaluated 37 candidate variables and suggested 26
additional variables. Twenty-seven variables derived from those
suggested in the first round were evaluated by 17 experts during the
second round. A final total of 55 candidate variables were retained.
Conclusion: A systematic approach yielded 55 candidate predictor
variables to use in devising predictive models for post-discharge
mortality in infants in a low-resource setting