Trabajo presentado en la EGU General Assemby 2013, celebrada del 7 al 12 de abril de 2013 en Viena (Austria)Peer Reviewe

Gomis, Damià

Jordá, Gabriel

Llasses, Josep

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Geophysical Research AbstractsVol. 15, EGU2013-463, 2013EGU General Assembly 2013© Author(s) 2012. CC Attribution 3.0 License.UNCERTAINTY BUDGET OF MEDITERRANEAN STORM SURGEPROJECTIONS FOR THE 21st CENTURY.Josep Llasses (1), Gabriel Jordà (2), and Damià Gomis (3)(1) IMEDEA, Palma de Mallorca, Spain (josep.llasses@uib.es), (2) IMEDEA, Palma de Mallorca, Spain(gabriel.jorda@uib.es), (3) IMEDEA, Palma de Mallorca, Spain (damia.gomis@uib.es)Quantifying the impact of climate change not only consists of estimating the expected changes of differentparameters from climate model results; it also involves assessing the uncertainties associated with these changes.In this presentation we estimate the uncertainty budget of Mediterranean storm surge projections for the 21stcentury. In particular we evaluate the uncertainty associated with the source of atmospheric forcing, the oceanmodel configuration and the chosen scenario. To do that we examine the output of a barotropic ocean model forcedby high-frequency atmospheric pressure and wind fields from different regional climate models (RCMs) which inturn are nested into different global climate models (GCMs).Three different combinations of simulations have been analyzed in order to study the uncertainty sources.First we evaluate the impact of the chosen scenario. To do this we examine a set of simulations run under threeclimate change scenarios but using the same RCM and GCM. Secondly we determine the uncertainty associatedwith the variability reproduced by different climate models. Finally, we examine simulations forced, on one hand,by a OGCM, and on the other hand, by 12 different RCM, all them for the same climate change scenario. Thisallows evaluating the impact of the RCM physics and resolution.

Uncertainty budget of Mediterranean storm surge projections for the XXIst Century

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