A novel methodology of risk assessment for railway freight wagons

Abstract

This study proposes a new methodology for the accurate risk assessment of railway freight wagons that has real-world applications in the operation and maintenance of freight vehicles. The paper specifically focuses on the analysis of posterior reliability calculation methods using Weibull’s reliability model to calculate reliability indicators by which the probability of occurrence of individual failures can be estimated. The consequences of failure are calculated through an existing system from the General contract used for freight wagons (AVV). The formula for calculating the risk value is based on a classical risk theory, where the risk is defined as a combination of the occurrence of a negative phenomenon and the severity of its consequence. The reasoning for this approach was in an effort to maintain simplicity and clarity for potential users in practice. This is based on the information gathered in examining the current state of risk management in the sector of railway vehicles in Slovakia. The data used for risk calculations were taken from a maintenance workshop in Slovakia to provide a realistic picture of the failure rates of freight wagons. The proposed methodology uses historical data for prediction of reliability for the next years. Based on the reliability being a function of time, the risk associated with it is variable, increasing with time. These findings have broader implications for the maintenance systems taken appropriate maintenance actions necessary with respect to increased risk