Bazbauers, Gatis

Blumberga, Andra

Blumberga, Dagnija

Bolwig, Simon

Gravelsins, Armands

Klitkou, Antje

Lund, Peter D.

Online Research Database In Technology

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Downloaded from orbit.dtu.dk on: Aug 03, 2018Modelling energy transitions pathways using insights from the sustanable transitionsliteratureBolwig, Simon; Bazbauers, Gatis; Klitkou, Antje; Lund, Peter D.; Blumberga, Andra; Gravelsins,Armands; Blumberga, DagnijaPublication date:2018Document VersionPeer reviewed versionLink back to DTU OrbitCitation (APA):Bolwig, S., Bazbauers, G., Klitkou, A., Lund, P. D., Blumberga, A., Gravelsins, A., & Blumberga, D. (2018).Modelling energy transitions pathways using insights from the sustanable transitions literature [Sound/Visualproduction (digital)]. 9th International Sustainability Transitions Conference (IST 2018), Manchester, UnitedKingdom, 11/06/2018Modelling energy transitions pathwaysUsing insights from the literature on sustainability transitionsIST2018 Conference, Manchester 11-14 June 2018Simon Bolwig, Gatis Bazbauers, Antje Klitkou, Peter D. Lund, Andra Blumberga, Armands Gravelsins, Dagnija Blumberga. Background - energy modelling• Must enable quantitative description of energy transition, not only in the technology domain, but also in the institutional, market, and social domains• Must account for endogenous factors that drive transition processes, not just external impacts on the systemStrengths and limitations of 'traditional' energy models: • Focus on technological and economic factors - high technological detail (performance, costs); models interactions between energy sub-systems; geographical coverage • Neglect market failures and adjustment delays; • Ignore social, political and behavioural factors or at best treat them as exogenous to the systemBackground - flexibility analysis• Flexibility a precondition for achieving low-carbon energy systems with high shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) sources• It is a transition issue in the medium to long term• Demand side - e.g. peak shaving, flexible heating & cooling, … • Energy conversion and storage - e.g. power-to-gas, power-to-heat, battery storage, reserve generation capacity• There are technological, economic, behavioural, institutional (including regulatory) barriers to increasing flexibility in energy systems• Flex4res project on Nordic energy system - costs and potentials, technological and regulatory barriers, coupled energy markets, market design, energy system model, transitions pathways, …• Modelling of energy transitions pathways should consider flexibility measures as enabling factors for integration of high shares of VREAims of the paper• Discuss how modelling of energy scenarios as sustainable energy transition pathways can be improved by integrating insights (factors, mechanisms, linkages, etc.) drawn from the sustainable transitions (ST) literature• Discuss alternative energy modelling approaches in view of their ability to consider ST factors. Focus is on system dynamics modelling (SDM) vs. 'traditional' optimisation models. • Propose how SDMs can be applied to the case of flexibility in an energy system with high shares of variable renewable energy• Assess the ST concepts in terms of their use in SDM and relevance for analysis of flexibility in energy systemsThree co-evolving systems influence energy transitions Techno-economic systemsEnergy flows (production, conversion, consumption) coordinated by the energy marketSystems of political actionsInfluencing energy policy making and implementationSocio-technical systemsEnergy technologies embedded in socio-technical context Theoretical perspectives for analysing the systemsTechno-economic systemsEconomics EngineeringEarth sciencesSystems of political actionsPolitical sciencePolitical economySocio-technical systemsEvolutionary economicsEconomic geographySociologyHistory of technologyST concept Description SourcesTransitionspathwaysPatterns of changes in socio-technical systems … that lead to new ways of achieving specific societal functions. TPs involve … reconfigurations across technologies, supporting infrastructures, business models and production systems, as well as the preferences and behavior of consumers. Turnheim et alTypology of transitions pathways • Transformation pathway• Reconfiguration pathway • Technological substitution pathway • De-alignment and re-alignment pathway Geels & SchotStrategic niche managementThe creation, development and phase-out of protected spaces for the development and use of promising technologies by means of experimentation, with the aim of learning about the new technology and enhancing its further development and use Kemp et alExpectationsand visionsThe role of promises and expectations in technological development – how promises about technologies are converted into design specifications. Expectations only contribute to new technology niches if they become a part of agenda building processes Hetland; Lente and Rip; Geels and SchotPath dependencePath dependence is the tendency of institutions or technologies to become committed to develop in certain ways because of their structural properties or their beliefs and valuesBr EncyclPath dependence .. suggests the existence of 'lock in' mechanisms that can cause some technologies, behaviors or policies to persist or dominate even if "superior" alternatives  Klitkou et al ST concepts for improved modelling of energy transition pathwaysST concept Description SourcesLock in mechanismsPositive feedbacks or increasing returns to the adoption of a selected technology. As a result, incumbent technologies have a distinct advantage over new entrants. Mechanisms that reinforce a certain pathway of economic, technological, industrial and institutional developmentArthur 1994Klitkou et al 2015• Learning effects and learning processes - e.g. decreasing costs of renewables, learning-by-using, learning in niches, etc.• Institutional learning effects  - formal institutions favour certain policies• Increasing returns to scale  - fixed costs • Increasing returns to scope - advantages through product variety• Informational increasing returns  - tech diffusion• Network externalities - standard setting in technological domains• Technological interrelatedness and infrastructureKlitkou et al 2015;various sourcesInstitutions and actors• Political processes at local, national and international levels• Strategic actions of core industry actors, regarding technology, markets and regulation• Consumer behaviour and perceptionsHoltz et alGeels et alNygaard &BolwigSystem dynamics models of energy systems • SDMs capture co-evolution of systems - techno-economic, socio-technical and political - and so give a more realistic representation of energy system dynamics:• Information feedback loops affecting demand and investment decisions, regulations and policy implications, environmental awareness of society;• Delays in material (e.g. power generation capacity) and informational (e.g. knowledge about new technologies) factors;• Co-development and mutual interaction of material (e.g. capacities of technologies) and non-material (e.g. level of expertise) stocks;• Non-linear causal relations governed by reinforcing and balancing forces (e.g. diffusion of new technologies, limits to growth) which are characteristic for technology disruptions in socio-technical systems.Elements of systems dynamics model representing 'socio-technical' energy transition Conceptual model of nonlinear energy transition RRFig 2. Dynamics of share of variable renewable energy sources as portrayed by interaction of reinforcing and balancing processes and disruptionShare of VREtimeInteraction between flexibility solutions and adoption rate of RESB1B2Adoption rate ofRES technologiesCarbon-intensity ofenergy services -Environmentalpressures+Public awareness ofenvironmentalproblems+Policy supportfor RES+ Investment inR&D+Technologicaldevelopment rate offlexibility solutions+Technicalconstraints offlexibility--New businesspossibilities+Economicrationale-investmentdecisions++Stability of the existingregime, e.g. power system -Motivation todevelop newsolutions-+B3Causal loop diagram illustrating balancing effects caused by changes in the adoption rate of renewable energy source (RES) technologiesIntegration of ST concepts in SDM and relevance for analysis of flexibilityST concept (examples)Approach in system dynamics modelsRelevance for analysis of flexibilityReconfigur-ation pathwayDevelopment of novel technologies and their incorporation into existing system represented by co-evolving S&F. The novel technological solutions gradually overtake existing solutions when a certain maturity is reached.Digitalization, development of demand-side response technologies and solutions, incl. new linkages between established utilities and ICT companies in smart grid development, smart meter apps etc.Strategic niche managementDriver of technological and institutional disruption (e.g. balancing loop B3, Fi. 5). Development of complementary technologies and infrastructures, supporting technology diffusion portrayed as co-flows.Industrial development that provides flexibility solutions.Development of efficient electric heating in residential and service sector and in district heating systems (power-to-heat flexibility)ST concept (examples)Approach in system dynamics models Relevance for analysis of flexibility Strategic actions of core industry actorsActivities of core industry actors which hamper development of new technologies create “inconvenience costs” for new technologies. Activities which lead to faster development and diffusion of new technologies may be modelled similarly to learning effects.Investments in flexibility enabling technologies, such as electric vehicles, battery storage. Decisions of large utilities to engage in flexibility services. Industry lobbying of energy policies. Political entities and processesPolitical processes can be considered by creating feedbacks from stocks which measure important societal factors, e.g. annual CO2 emissions to certain political leverage points, e.g. support for RES (e.g. balancing loop B1 in Fig. 5).New market mechanisms and national regulation.Political support to tax reforms to promote a flexible energy system, e.g. electrification of heating and transport. Capacity of state agencies to implement policies.Concluding observations• Concepts from the ST literature can help identify important factors to consider in energy models of energy transitions pathways• Many of ST concepts are relevant to analysis of energy flexibility• SDMs can capture the co-evolution of techno-economic, socio-technical and political factors - they can be integrated in SDMs as reinforcing and balancing loops …• Energy optimisation models are superior to SDMs regarding technological detail, coverage of connected sub-systems (heat, electricity, …), geographical scope…• A way forward - combine SDMs with energy optimisation models -possibly through soft coupling• … possibly achieving more realistic representations of energy scenarios as transition pathways including issues related to flexibilitywww.Flex4RES.orgThank you for listening

Modelling energy transitions pathways using insights from the sustanable transitions literature

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Modelling energy transitions pathways using insights from the sustanable transitions literature

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