A probabilistic model of vessel traffic at the intersection of a ferry crossing with a fairway

Abstract

The article presents a model of vessel traffic at the intersection based on an idea of a ship domain at the intersection. To determine the domain of a fairway unit some kinds of errors and accuracy were used: accuracy of distance, accuracy of ship's length and error of her speed. To determine the ferry domain a deviation of the time of the ferry reaching a centre of intersection was applied. Danger zones for the ferry crossing have been determined. In area of a danger zone a collision sub-zone and a sub-zone of excessive approach have been distinguished. For description of the stream of entries of fairway units the Poisson stream with variable intensity was applied. The probability of avoiding collision during the ferries' crossing the intersection has been determined