Tourism is one of the fastest-growing industries in the world economy particularly in developing countries. It is an important tool for the development of destinations’ economies and provides various socio-cultural and economic benefits such as employment generation, foreign capital exchange, infrastructure development, investment of capital, preservation of heritage sites, etc. Rajasthan is one of the most popular tourist destinations on the world’s map due to its diverse socio-cultural landscape. The desert tourist circuit has immense potential for attracting a large number of domestic as well as foreign tourists. The main aim of this study is to examine the trend and pattern of tourist arrival in the desert tourist circuit. This study is based on the secondary data collected from the Rajasthan tourism development Corporation (RTDC), Jaipur. The annual growth rate and regression analysis have been calculated to achieve the study\u27s objective

Kaushik, Prof. S.P.

Khayalia, Manoj

Manglaw, Sunil

English

Scholarworks@GVSU

Journal of Tourism Insights Volume 12 Issue 1 Article 1 Analysis of Trend and Pattern of Tourists’ Arrival: A Case Study of Desert Tourist Circuit, Rajasthan Sunil Manglaw Kurukshetra University, Kurukshetra, Haryana, sunilmanglaw12@gmail.com Prof. S.P. Kaushik Kurukshetra University, Kurukshetra Haryana, spk34@rediffmail.com Manoj Khayalia Chaudhary Devi Lal University, Sirsa Haryana, manojkhayalia8282@gmail.com Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarworks.gvsu.edu/jti  Part of the Tourism and Travel Commons Recommended Citation Manglaw, Sunil; Kaushik, Prof. S.P.; and Khayalia, Manoj () "Analysis of Trend and Pattern of Tourists’ Arrival: A Case Study of Desert Tourist Circuit, Rajasthan," Journal of Tourism Insights: Vol. 12: Iss. 1, Article 1. Available at: https://doi.org/10.9707/2328-0824.1273 Available at: https://scholarworks.gvsu.edu/jti/vol12/iss1/1 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by ScholarWorks@GVSU. It has been accepted for inclusion in Journal of Tourism Insights by an authorized editor of ScholarWorks@GVSU. For more information, please contact scholarworks@gvsu.edu. Analysis of Trend and Pattern of Tourists’ Arrival: A Case Study of Desert Tourist Circuit, Rajasthan Cover Page Footnote This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit-sectors. This article is available in Journal of Tourism Insights: https://scholarworks.gvsu.edu/jti/vol12/iss1/1 Analysis of Trend and Pattern of Tourists’ Arrival: A Case Study of Desert Tourist Circuit, Rajasthan Mr. Sunil1  Dr. S.P. Kaushik2 Mr. Manoj3 1. Research Scholar, Department of Geography,  Kurukshetra University Kurukshetra -136119 Haryana, India E-mail: sunilmanglaw1@gmail.com 2. Professor, Department of Geography, Kurukshetra University Kurukshetra -136119 Haryana, India  E-mail: spk34@rediffmail.com 3. Post-graduate in Geography, Chaudhary Devi Lal University, Sirsa – 125055 Haryana, India E-mail: manojkhayalia8282@gmail.com Abstract Tourism is one of the fastest-growing industries in the world economy particularly in developing countries. It is an important tool for the development of destinations’ economies and provides various socio-cultural and economic benefits such as employment generation, foreign capital exchange, infrastructure development, investment of capital, preservation of heritage sites, etc. Rajasthan is one of the most popular tourist destinations on the world’s map due to its diverse socio-cultural landscape. The desert tourist circuit has immense potential for attracting a large number of domestic as well as foreign tourists. The main aim of this study is to examine the trend and pattern of tourist arrival in the desert tourist circuit. This study is based on the secondary data collected from the Rajasthan Tourism Development Corporation (RTDC), Jaipur. The annual growth rate and regression analysis have been calculated to achieve the study's objective. Keywords: Tourist arrival, Trend, Annual growth rate, Desert circuit Introduction Tourism is one of the ways through which our perception of ‘world-view’ is shaped. It is a type of travel in which individuals go to a specific location for several purposes, such as leisure, commerce, education, and religious activities. The travel and tourism industry has now been among the fastest-growing economies on the globe (World Travel and Tourism Council, 2006). It's a crucial instrument for boosting tourism destinations' economies and improving the nexus of international, national, and interregional ties. (Gill and Singh, 2013). This sector contributes significantly to the economy of any country, giving several socio-economic benefits such as job creation, foreign capital exchange, and the expansion and development of other industries like agriculture, construction, and handicrafts, among others. (Jaiswal et al., 2017). Ethnic 1Manglaw et al.: Tourists' Arrival in Desert Tourist Circuit of RajasthanPublished by ScholarWorks@GVSU,tourism, cultural tourism, environmental tourism, recreational tourism, rural tourism, pilgrim tourism, medical tourism, spiritual tourism, business tourism, adventure tourism, and so on are examples of many types of tourism that exist based on forms, nature, preferences, and purposes (Singh & Sah, 2017). The tourist business is a major source of gross revenue and foreign exchange profits, and it is critical to any country's economic development. In 2019, Travel and tourism activities contributed US $ 9.2 trillion to the global economy, accounting for 10.4 percent of the global GDP. In 2019, this sector supported 374 million employments globally (10.6 percent of all jobs) and organized $ 1.7 trillion in exports (6.8% of overall exports, 27.4% of global services exports) (WTTC, 2019). The tourism industry in India has long been seen as a major source of economic development due to its strong forward and backward links with the country's other major sectors (Rana and Kumar, 2016). According to the WTTC (2019) report, India is anticipated to become the world's third-largest travel and tourism economy by 2028, in terms of both direct and total GDP. In 2019, India's tourism industry earned $194 billion (6.8% of GDP), and it is predicted to generate $460 billion (9.9% of GDP) by 2028, with an annual growth rate of 6.9%. In India, this business supported 39.80 million jobs in 2019, and it is predicted that by 2028, this industry will have generated over 10 million jobs (WTTC, 2019). Rajasthan is one of India's most enticing tourist sites for domestic and foreign travelers. Rajasthan is known for its diversity and has a distinct place on the world tourism map in terms of natural resources, culture, heritage, and historical hotels, and the lure of touring the state on wheels has been the state's unique selling offer for visitors. Tourists also appreciate colorful fairs and festivals. The state's western region's distinctive desert landscape is also a big draw for travelers. It is known as the world's most opulent art and craft center.   Objectives: The following are the objective of the study: • To analyze the trends of tourists’ arrival in the Desert circuit from 2001-to 2020. • To examine the growth and pattern of tourists’ arrival in the Desert circuit from 2001 to 2020. • To analyze the tourist accommodation in the study area. Study Area: Due to its wonderful and scenic landscape, the desert tourism circuit is one of the most attractive tourist destinations. The study is located between 26°20' N to 28°01 N and 69°20' E to 73°18' E. It is situated near the Indo-Pak border. The study area consists of 88,495 km2 which is 25.85% of the state’s total area. This circuit has a population density of 76 persons per square kilometer with a total population of 6721021 persons. 229 meters is the average elevation of the study area. The climate of the area is hot and dry throughout the year except for a short period of Monsoon. 2Journal of Tourism Insights, Vol. 12 [], Iss. 1, Art. 1https://scholarworks.gvsu.edu/jti/vol12/iss1/1DOI: 10.9707/2328-0824.1273 Database and Methodology: The systematic process of identifying an issue, collecting facts or data, interpreting the evidence, and reaching a conclusion is known as research. The following is a list of research methods: Data Collection: The present study is based on secondary data published by various government or non-government agencies and organizations. The data has been collected from the official website of the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC), the United Nations World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO), the Ministry of Tourism, Govt. of India, and the Rajasthan Tourism Development Corporation (RTDC). The study also used the data and information provided by various reports, articles, literature, and internet sources. Data Analysis: The annual growth rate (AGR) was calculated to examine the percentage change in each year: - • Annual Growth Rate (AGR) = Present year – Base year / Base year × 100 To analyze the annual trend in tourist arrivals in the study area, a linear regression model has been used: -  • Y = mx + c Where m is the rate of change and c is the Y-intercept of the line Various cartographic tools were used to characterize the trends and patterns of tourist arrivals and the availability of tourism accommodation in the state. 3Manglaw et al.: Tourists' Arrival in Desert Tourist Circuit of RajasthanPublished by ScholarWorks@GVSU,Result and Discussion: Figure 1. Domestic Tourist Arrival in Desert Circuit  Source: Rajasthan Tourism Development Corporation, Jaipur Figure 1 shows the year-wise domestic tourists’ arrival in the desert circuit of Rajasthan from 2001 to 2020. The number of domestic tourists arriving in this circuit was 6.72 Lakhs in 2001 and gradually increased to 9.96 Lakhs in 2011. The number of tourist arrival suddenly decreased in 2012 to 8.34 Lakhs. There are various reasons for this, including malpractice in shopping, poor tourist safety at destinations, lack of instructions, and lack of public awareness of the destinations. All these factors have adversely affected the tourist’s arrival. In 2013, the number of tourists increased to 8.84 Lakhs and continuously grew to 17.83 Lakhs in 2019. Again in 2020, the number of tourist arrival drastically decreased to 4.30 Lakhs due to the Covid-19 pandemic.   Figure 2. Foreign Tourist Arrival in Desert Circuit  Source: Rajasthan Tourism Development Corporation, Jaipur y = 46371x + 557122R² = 0.3984030000060000090000012000001500000180000021000002400000Number of TouristsYeary = 5653.3x + 197016R² = 0.1688050000100000150000200000250000300000350000400000Number of TouristsYear4Journal of Tourism Insights, Vol. 12 [], Iss. 1, Art. 1https://scholarworks.gvsu.edu/jti/vol12/iss1/1DOI: 10.9707/2328-0824.1273Figure 2 shows the year-wise foreign tourist arrival in the desert circuit of Rajasthan from 2001 to 2020. The number of foreign tourists arriving in this circuit was 1.48 Lakhs in 2001 and continuously increased to 3.36 Lakhs in 2008. But in 2009, the number of foreign tourists arriving suddenly declined due to 9 serial bombs explosion in Jaipur city. After that, the number of foreign tourists continuously increased from 2.96 Lakhs in 2010 to 3.07 Lakhs in 2019. In 2020, the number of tourist arrival declined to 0.89 Lakhs due to the Covid-19 pandemic.   Figure 3. The annual growth rate of tourist arrival in Desert Circuit  Source: Rajasthan Tourism Development Corporation, Jaipur Figure 3 shows the annual growth rate of domestic, foreign, and total tourist arrival in the study area from 2001 to 2020. Data examines a continuously increasing trend in tourists' arrival in the study area. In 2002, the AGR of domestic, foreign, and total tourist arrivals were negative at -11.10 percent, -45 percent, and -17.22% respectively. The AGR of domestic, foreign, and total tourist arrivals increased by 11.76%, 10.43%, and 11.43% in 2006 respectively. The highest AGR of domestic tourist arrival has been observed in 2016 is 36.50 percent, while in foreign tourist arrival, it has been observed in 2003 that is 76.44 percent, and in total tourist arrival, it has been observed in 2016 that is 31.01 percent. Due to the Covid-19 pandemic, a negative AGR of domestic, foreign, and total tourist arrival has been reported in 2020 with -75.89 percent, -70.85 percent, and -75.14 percent respectively.         -80-60-40-20020406080Annual growth rate in percentageYearDomestic Foreigner Total5Manglaw et al.: Tourists' Arrival in Desert Tourist Circuit of RajasthanPublished by ScholarWorks@GVSU,Figure 4. Month Wise Domestic Tourists' Arrival, 2019  Source: Rajasthan Tourism Development Corporation, Jaipur Figure 4 shows the month-wise domestic tourists’ arrival at the desert tourist circuit of Rajasthan in 2019. According to this graph, the peak month for domestic tourist arrivals in this circuit was December and January month with 2.53 Lakhs and 2.08 Lakhs followed by November and August month with 1.94 Lakhs and 1.91 Lakhs respectively. This circuit lies in a hot and dry climate; therefore, visitors have preferred these months. The monsoon is arriving in August month; therefore, the number of tourists is high. On the other hand, the lean month for domestic tourist arrival was June and July with 0.81 Lakhs and 0.80 Lakhs respectively. The following months of the lean month are April (0.82 Lakhs), May (0.96 Lakhs), and September (1.19 Lakhs) respectively.   Figure 5. Month Wise Foreign Tourists' Arrival, 2019  Source: Rajasthan Tourism Development Corporation, Jaipur 050000100000150000200000250000300000Number of touristsMonths05000100001500020000250003000035000400004500050000Number of TouristsMonths6Journal of Tourism Insights, Vol. 12 [], Iss. 1, Art. 1https://scholarworks.gvsu.edu/jti/vol12/iss1/1DOI: 10.9707/2328-0824.1273Figure 5 shows the month-wise foreign tourists’ arrival in the desert circuit of Rajasthan in 2019. This graph shows that the two peak months observed from FTAs were February and November, with 43.41 thousand and 43.33 thousand tourist arrival followed by March and January, with 40.16 thousand and 35.05 thousand tourist arrival respectively. Because the top 6 source countries of FTAs belong to the temperate region, they have preferred to visit in these months. On the other hand, the lean month for FTAs was June and July month with 3408 and 9947 tourists followed by September and May month with 16.51 thousand and 18.59 thousand respectively. Table 1. Tourism Accommodation Unit in Desert Tourist Circuit  Hotels & Dharmshalas Paying Guest House Total Years Hotels Rooms Beds PG Rooms Beds Hotels & PG Rooms Beds 2015 385 8609 18906 112 511 965 497 9120 19258 2016 408 8393 18293 111 501 985 519 8894 19891 2017 412 8495 19106 111 503 965 523 8998 20071 2018 415 9121 21120 113 509 977 528 9630 22097 2019 415 9023 19634 113 509 977 528 9532 20611 2020 430 10374 20781 163 750 1475 593 11124 22256 Source: Rajasthan Tourism Development Corporation, Jaipur Table 1 shows the availability of tourism accommodation units in the desert tourist circuit from 2015 to 2020. In 2015, there were 385 hotels unit and 8609 rooms with a bed capacity of 18906 and 112 paying guest houses, and 511 rooms with a bed capacity of 965. The number of these units increased as the number of tourists arriving in the study area increased. The number of hotel units increased from 408 hotel units and 8393 rooms with a bed capacity of 18293 in 2016 to 430 hotel units, and 10374 rooms with a bed capacity of 20781 in 2020. On the other hand, the number of paying guests' houses increased from 111 paying guests’ houses, 501 rooms with a bed capacity of 985 to 163 paying guest houses, and 750 rooms with a bed capacity of 1475. Conclusion: The tourism industry has become one of the keys to the development of any nation. It is a vital tool for developing countries like India to build their economies. It provides a variety of socio-economic benefits to the countries such as job creation, foreign capital exchange, etc. The study shows that there is an increasing trend of domestic as well as foreign tourist arrival. The number of domestic tourist arrival in 2001 was 6.72 Lakhs which increased by 17.83 Lakhs in 2019. While the number of FTAs in 2001 was 1.48 Lakhs which increased by 3.07 Lakhs in 2019. The study also reveals that there is a fluctuation in AGR of domestic, foreign, and total tourists’ arrival in the study area. Three peaks and three dips have been observed in domestic tourist 7Manglaw et al.: Tourists' Arrival in Desert Tourist Circuit of RajasthanPublished by ScholarWorks@GVSU,arrival. The peaks have been observed in 2003,2014, and 2016 and the dips have been observed in 2005, 2008, and 2019. On the other hand, there were two peaks and three dips have been observed in FTAs. The peaks were shown in 2003 and 2010, while the dips have been observed in 2002, 2009, and 2019. The study also reveals that there is a seasonal fluctuation in tourists’ arrival in the study area. The highest number of domestic tourists arrived in January, February and November, and December months, while the lowest number of tourists arrived in April, May, June, and July months. On the other hand, the highest number of FTAs observed in November, February, and March months while the trend of the lowest number of tourists follows the trend of domestic tourists’ arrival.  The government's ongoing marketing and promotional operations strategy has increased with visitor arrivals. The state govt. has taken many steps, including a new tourism policy, to make the state one of India's most popular tourist destinations. Reference: Chakrabarty, N. (2020). A Regression Approach to Distribution and Trend Analysis of Quarterly Foreign Tourist Arrivals in India. Journal of Soft Computing Paradigm, 2(1), 57–82. https://doi.org/10.36548/jscp.2020.1.006. Choudhary, S., & Yadav, S. B. (2018). Role of Tourism in Economic Development of Rajasthan. 7(543), 543–550 Gill, N., & Singh, R. P. (2011). Tourism Dynamic Assessment Using Geospatial Approach in Bageshwar District, Uttarakhand. Recent Research in Science and Technology, 3(5), 109– 113. Jaiswal, B. (2017). 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Journal of Environmental Management and Tourism, 7(4), 762–768. https://doi.org/10.14505/jemt.v7.4(16).22 Yadav, M. (2021). Covid-19 And Tourist Arrival : A Case Study of Alwar District, Rajasthan. 03(02), 208–212. https://wttc.org/Research/Economic-Impact              9Manglaw et al.: Tourists' Arrival in Desert Tourist Circuit of RajasthanPublished by ScholarWorks@GVSU,

Analysis of Trend and Pattern of Tourists’ Arrival: A Case Study of Desert Tourist Circuit, Rajasthan

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Analysis of Trend and Pattern of Tourists’ Arrival: A Case Study of Desert Tourist Circuit, Rajasthan

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