In order to provide probabilistic projections of
the future evolution of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning
Circulation (AMOC), we calibrated a simple Stommeltype
box model to emulate the output of fully coupled threedimensional
atmosphere-ocean general circulation models
(AOGCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
(CMIP). Based on this calibration to idealised global warming
scenarios with and without interactive atmosphere-ocean
fluxes and freshwater perturbation simulations, we project
the future evolution of the AMOC mean strength within the
covered calibration range for the lower two Representative
Concentration Pathways (RCPs) until 2100 obtained from
the reduced complexity carbon cycle-climate model MAGICC
6. For RCP3-PD with a global mean temperature median
below 1.0 C warming relative to the year 2000, we
project an ensemble median weakening of up to 11% compared
to 22% under RCP4.5 with a warming median up to
1.9 C over the 21st century. Additional Greenland meltwater
of 10 and 20 cm of global sea-level rise equivalent further
weakens the AMOC by about 4.5 and 10 %, respectively.
By combining our outcome with a multi-model sea-level rise
study we project a dynamic sea-level rise along the New York
City coastline of 4 cm for the RCP3-PD and of 8 cm for the
RCP4.5 scenario over the 21st century. We estimate the total
steric and dynamic sea-level rise for New York City to be
about 24 cm until 2100 for the RCP3-PD scenario, which can
hold as a lower bound for sea-level rise projections in this region,
as it does not include ice sheet and mountain glacier
contributions