Landscape matters: Insights from the impact of mega-droughts on Colombia's energy transition

Abstract

Mega-droughts can cause disruption to the affected society sparking a transition. We explore the causes and effects of the 2015−2016 mega-drought in Colombia. Using the multi-level perspective as a framework, we found that the mega-drought sparked an energy transition in Colombia whose dynamics were impacted both by the institutionalization of niches as well as the ability to predict the next drought. We were able to trace, using the current understanding of anthropogenic forces, the cause of the mega-drought to socio-technical landscape development influenced by human-induced warming and land use change. We found that the regimes in Bolivia and Brazil were able to influence the landscape through deforestation, and hence contribute to the intensity of a mega-drought in Colombia. The knowledge that a regime can cause disruption in regimes in other geographies and sectors has implications for transition research as well as decision-making for coping with droughts and other disasters. © 202