Market-value of Renewables in the Young Mexican Power Market

Abstract

Valor de las energías renovables en el joven mercado mexicanoEsta investigación pretende encontrar el efecto que las renovables tienen para reducir el precio de la electricidad en México (“merit-order effect” o “MOE”). Usando datos del 01/enero/2017 al 31/diciembre/2019, se usó un modelo de regresión linear para examinar empíricamente el “MOE”. Los datos muestran un “MOE” de MXN$0.10/MWh por MWh de renovables. Escalando al promedio de generación renovable, el “MOE” promedio es 13.5$0.10/MWh per MWh of renewable generation. Scaling to the average renewable generation, the average “MOE” is 13.5% of the average electricity price. There’s evidence that the “MOE” is non-linear and that is different across wind and solar energy. The market value of renewables was only 93% of the market value of the system. Stakeholders should differentiate the average electricity price from the price received by each power plant. As the “MOE” becomes an integral part of investment assessments, investment behaviour will change, impacting the future of the energy mix. To my knowledge, this is the first “MOE” research regarding a young and growing power market with warm weather (fundamental differences from previous research)