Author Institution: Chairman, Department of Bacteriology, The Ohio State Universit

Birkeland, Jorgen M.

The Ohio Journal of Science

KnowledgeBank at OSU

PROBLEMS RESULTING FROM POPULATION GROWTHA symposium presented at The Ohio Academy of Science at Capital UniversityApril 18, 19591. Problems Resulting from Population GrowthJORGEN M. BIRKELAND, Chairman, Department of Bacteriology,The Ohio Stale University, Moderator2. The Expected Growth of Population in the United StatesARTHUR A. CAMPBELL, Scripps Foundation for Research inPopulation Problems, Miami University3. The Loss of Land to Urban Growth and Industrial Development(a slide talk summarized in Birkeland's paper)HAYDEN W. OLDS, Chief, Division of Wildlife, Ohio Departmentof Natural Resources4. Will We Have Enough Food and Fiber?CHARLES J. WILLARD, Department of Agronomy, The Ohio StateUniversity5. Can Technology Solve the Materials-Needs Problems of the World ~J.ALFRED B. GARRETT, Chairman, Department of Chemistry, TheOhio State University6. What Effects Has Population Growth on People?DAVID F. MILLER, Chairman, Department of Zoology and Ento-mology, The Ohio State UniversityThese several papers, with the exception of J. M. Birkeland's, were presentedbefore the Conservation Section of The Ohio Academy of Science at the 1959annual meeting of the Academy. Dr. Birkeland was moderator of the discussionand subsequently prepared the introductory paper published herein which alsosummarizes the ideas and conflicts which emerged from the discussions. Carl S.Johnson of The Ohio State University, program chairman for the ConservationSection, served as the symposium editor.THE OHIO JOURNAL OF SCIENCE 60(4): 207, July, 1960.208 JORGEN M. BIRKELAND Vol. 60PROBLEMS RESULTING FROM POPULATION GROWTHJORGEN M. BIRKELANDChairman, Department of Bacteriology, The Ohio State UniversityIn the year or so since the papers in this series were presented at the annualmeeting of The Ohio Academy of Science, the world population has increased byover 40 million; death rates from all the important infectious diseases have declined;food surpluses have continued to pile up in the United States; and in the rest ofthe world millions on millions have gone from day to day with barely enoughcalories to keep alive and reproduce, but not enough to walk upright in decencyand with human dignity.Ever since Malthus, in 1798, published his famous essay on population in whichhe "proved" that man's capacity to reproduce exceeded the earth's capacity toproduce food, there have been countless writers who have "disproved" the Mal-thusian doctrine. But in spite of the discovery of new food producing areas, inspite of man's increasing mastery over nature through science and technology, bywhich he has been able to produce more food, in spite of the industrial revolution,all of which had the effect of postponing the evil day of reckoning, until manyfelt that the dire prophesy of Malthus had been thoroughly disproved, the problem,the nasty problem of over population, somehow still haunts us.It haunts us chiefly because the rate of population increase has increased sorapidly in the immediate past that if the present rate continues for another fortyyears, the world population will more than double in the period from 1960 to2000. It took over a million years to reach a population of 2.8 billion; it willtake only forty years to reach a population of 6 or more billion. By 2050 thepopulation might be 9 to 10 billion, and nobody cares or dares to predict muchfarther ahead.There are those who see nothing but good in numbers, "The more the merrier";there are others who see little merriment in half-starved billions of humans.There are those who say that they need not starve, that the world can feedeven 10 times our present population, and that therefore there is no populationproblem as such.There are those who point to the limitation of other natural resources, such asenergy and minerals. These and other questions are considered in the papersthat follow.In the past, most predictions as to the rate of population increase have beenrather consistently inaccurate. Dr. Campbell's paper deals effectively with theproblems of forecasting population growths and, on the basis of his analysis andhis most conservative projections, we must look forward to such a rapid increasein the United States in the next twenty years that the fundamental aspects of ourdaily lives will be profoundly changed.When we think of Malthus, we think of food and starvation. ProfessorWillard emphasizes several points which are either overlooked or forgotten inmany of the discussions of the food and population problem. Although he doesnot see any immediate threat of starvation in the United States and feels thatthe world, by mobilizing all its resources, can certainly support many more peoplethat we now have, he still feels that eventually the population growth will out-strip the earth's capacity to feed the people and that, consequently, populationcontrol is inevitable. What he does realize, but does not emphasize, is the factthat to mobilize all the resources, to desalt sea water, to farm the deserts andoceans, will require a fantastic amount of investment capital far beyond theresources of the over-populated countries.Any statement of the food producing capacity of a nation must take intoNo. 4 POPULATION PROBLEMS 209account the competition for land for other purposes. Hay den Olds (whose paperis not included)1 presented figures showing the acreage taken out of agriculturalproduction and used for airports, golf courses, cemeteries, farm ponds, new in-dustrial plants, roads, and recreation. From his, and other data, the situationmay be summarized as follows. About 4 percent, or 17 million acres, of the bestfarmland in the nation has been taken out of food production and used for otherpurposes during the period 1940-1954. The rate of loss of agricultural land israpidly increasing and land covered with concrete or urban development isn'tlikely to come back into agricultural production. The need for land for ourexpanding industry may be illustrated by the fact that in Ohio since 1953 newindustrial plants have been established at the rate of slightly more than one eachweek, or 57 per year. Every highway, every mile of highway with a right-of-wayof 200 feet, takes 26 acres, not counting cloverleaves or intersections and peripheraldevelopments.Another point might be emphasized. The need for recreational facilities willincrease even more rapidly than the rate of population growth because the morecrowded we become, and the more our daily life resembles the "poultry broilerfactories," the greater the need for parks, playgrounds, and other recreationalfacilities.One wonders whether those who have calculated our capacity to produceenough food for ten or twenty billion or a hundred billion ever consider the otherdemands for space.Professor Garrett, in dealing with the question "Can technology supply ourmaterial needs?" cites theoretical levels which are so high that no one believesthey can be reached. Calculations based on theoretical capacity to produce donot take into consideration economic, political, or social problems and, moreover,do not take into account what might be called "test years." Certainly a drought,or floods, can upset all calculations for short periods and man must eat threetimes a day, every day, and he can't eat averages. The ecologist knows that it isthe extremes, not the means, that limit organisms and this applies to humanecology as well.Professor Miller, in discussing the effect of population growth on people, raisesmany important ecological questions and wonders whether Homo sapiens cansurvive unless he uses his intelligence to deal with the population problem. Thiswould appear to mean unless he decides to limit the numbers and to limit therate of increase now and by methods which will work. It is by the use of intel-ligence that man introduced death control and unless he introduces birth control,the problem of survival will eventually defeat him.One could ask how large a world population can be supported when thereare about a hundred separate and independent governments. How close to thetheoretical maximum capacity to produce food and energy and material can wecome unless we have one world government with a dictator powerful enough toshift people so as to get the most efficient use of land, water, mineral resourcesand capital, without regard for human rights, wants or traditions?We might also ask how we can expect people, who because of ignorance, tra-ditions, and lack of capital have not been able to deal intelligently and effectivelywith their present population problem, to display suddenly the scientific knowledgeand technical skills necessary to wring the maximum productivity from our presentcrop lands, to provide the water for irrigating the deserts, to farm the oceans, andto organize the economy so it will operate at maximum efficiency when con-fronted with their problem magnified four to tenfold.A great many articles, many television and radio programs have dealt withthe population problems since these papers were presented but, because of their'Haydon Olds, Chief of the Division of Wildlife, OhioDept. of National Resources, presentedaerial views by color slides giving evidence of the pressure of urban developments uponspace for agriculture and recreation.210 JORGEN M. BIRKELAND Vol. GOfundamental nature, these are in a sense timeless and will repay careful reading.One last comment may be permitted. In one sense the most importantstatement to appear during the last year is the one issued by the Roman Catholichierarchy and called "Explosion and Backfire."This statement, although hardly convincing to the Malthusians, has broughtthe issue of population control into the open. While the problem has been dis-cussed freely and frankly in many other countries and by some in this country,the very mention of "birth control" in any audience has usually caused an uneasystirring and a tendency to change the subject. Convictions or actions based onreligious dogma are considered in a sense "untouchable" and not proper topicsfor discussion. While the statement does not admit of a population explosion,it certainly caused an explosion in the press, on radio and television. Whetherit will backfire only time will tell. At any rate, it did clear the air and it is nowmuch easier to discuss freely this highly emotionally-charged problem.

Problems Resulting from Population Growth

https://kb.osu.edu/bitstream/1811/4698/1/V60N04_207.pdf

Problems Resulting from Population Growth

Abstract

Similar works

Full text

Available Versions

KnowledgeBank at OSU