Forster, Caroline

Köhler, Martin

Meininger, Martin

Stich, Dennis

Tafferner, Arnold

Institute of Transport Research:Publications

An IDL-based weather forecast system for aviation using  real-time data from remote sensing instruments, nowcasting tools and numerical models  D. Stich*, C. Forster*, M. Meininger**, A. Tafferner* and M. Köhler*  * DLR Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany ** Exelis Visual Information Solutions GmbH, Gilching, Germany   The 36th International Symposium on Remote Sensing of Environment, 11 – 15 May 2015, Berlin, Germany • Adverse weather is responsible for 40-50% of all delays in Europe  • Thunderstorm activity is the reason for up to 90 % of all delays in the airspace over the USA during the summer months. • Thunderstorms are the most dangerous weather phenomenon for aviation (survey with pilots)    icing hail lightning Innovative weather forecast system for aviation – why? Example thunderstorms Thunderstrom information for aviation is still rudimentary these days! Goal: Help to increase safety and efficiency for air traffic during adverse weather situations 3 hour forecast of a NWP model with 2.8 km resolution for 15:00 UTC ... NWP model forecasts can only give a rough estimate of place and time of future thunderstorm occurence Munich 3 hour forecast of a NWP model with 2.8 km resolution for 15:00 UTC ... ... superimpo ed with lightning information from 15:00 UTC NWP model forecasts can only give a rough estimate of place and time of future thunderstorm occurence Munich   Vortrag > Autor > Dokumentname > Datum Picture by Martin Köhler, DLR  Thunderstorms as weatherobjects with multiple object attributes  Cb top:  conv. turbulence, lightning activity, etc. detected by satellite (Cb-TRAM) Cb bottom:  hail, icing, lightning, heavy rain, turbulence, etc. detected by radar (Rad-TRAM) Cb-TRAM - Cumulonimbus TRacking And Monitoring  satellite data analysis en-route  Used MSG (rapidscan) data:  WV 6.2   IR 10.8  IR 12.0  HRV Detection stages: 1: Convection Initiation (CI)    development in HRV    IR 10.8 cooling 2: Rapid development    WV 6.2 rapid cooling     (> 1K/15min) 3: Mature storms    T 6.2 - T 10.8     HRV texture    Extrapolation up to 60 min (here 30 minute nowcast plotted)  Description: Zinner et al., 2008,09 & 13 Lightning (LINET) Cb-TRAM - Cumulonimbus TRacking And Monitoring  satellite data analysis en-route  Used MSG (rapidscan) data:  WV 6.2   IR 10.8  IR 12.0  HRV Detection stages: 1: Convection Initiation (CI)    development in HRV    IR 10.8 cooling 2: Rapid development    WV 6.2 rapid cooling     (> 1K/15min) 3: Mature storms    T 6.2 - T 10.8     HRV texture    Extrapolation up to 60 min (here 30 minute nowcast plotted)  Description: Zinner et al., 2008,09 & 13 Lightning (LINET) Rad-TRAM - Radar Tracking and Monitoring weather radar data analysis take-off and landing   Reflectivity threshold: 37 dBZ Tracking and nowcasting based on pyramidal image matching like in Cb-TRAM Available every 5th minute Based on DWD radar data: RX and EURADCOM 60 min nowcast Rad-TRAM object Forecast skill for convective precipitation after Lin et al. , 2005,  Golding, 1998 POLDIRAD Surface Analysis Cloud tracker Radar tracker Lightning Local  forecasting COSMO-DE  & Ensemble SYNRAD SYNSAT Object  Comparison    Weather Forecast User-oriented System Including Object Nowcasting Object  Comparison weather object  specification oriented at user requirements Initiation Track Nowcast Forecast COSMOairport  POLDIRAD Surface Analysis Cloud tracker Radar tracker Lightning Local  forecasting COSMO-DE  & Ensemble SYNRAD SYNSAT Object  Comparison    Weather Forecast User-oriented System Including Object Nowcasting Object  Comparison weather object  specification oriented at user requirements Initiation Track Nowcast Forecast COSMOairport  Predicting the future state of a weather object through:   Nowcast based on extrapolation methods  Forecast based on NWP models  (ensemble model and high resolution forecasts)  Selection of the forecast that agrees best with the observation  Combination of nowcast and forecast by applying  fuzzy logic  IDL: the platform to realize the WxFUSION concept  IDL … • is a platform for data analysis and visualization • provides a means to easily describe weather objects as well as their attributes • provides an effective platform to integrate and overlay different data sources • enables a quick analysis of the changes made in a WxFUSION algorithm   • is highly specialized for the processing and display of geospatial imagery   EXELIS exhibition stand Nr.8 WxFUSION GUI with selection of best member red: observed Cb-TRAM objects on 22. July 2010 17:00 UTC. blue: synthetic objects of COSMO-DE member 4 (analysis 22. July 2010 06 UTC)  Shown is a list of COSMO-DE Members that have an overlap with the current observation The member having the best overlap with the observation is listed on top (here No.4)  Best member selection example case  flooding in the city of Genoa on 9 October 2014  Cb-TRAM detects a storm cell which persists in that location for about 6 hours observed rainfall as given by the 12 hour precipitations sums from 00 to 12 UTC (top) and from 12 to 24 UTC (bottom) AROME EPS forecast provided by O. Nuissier, MeteoFrance Best member selection example case  flooding in the city of Genoa on 9 October 2014  AROME EPS forecast provided by O. Nuissier, MeteoFrance High potential for timely detection of flood hazard:  • Cb-TRAM detects thunderstorms in both, synthetic (member P008) and real satellite data near Genoa • The thunderstorm near Genoa is not a transient feature in P008, but persists for about 5 hours  • The precipitation forecast of P008 shows large amounts of rainfall exceeding 200 mm over 24 hours Best member selection example case  flooding in the city of Genoa on 9 October 2014  Cb indicator forecasts up to 6 hrs (Cblike)  Fuzzy logic combination of CAPE, 500 hPa vertical velocity, synthetic satellite and radar data from the DWD COSMO-DE model  Cblike 6 hrs forecast for 21 June 2012  18:00 UTC White contours: Cblike indicator exceeding  a certain threshold  Pink contours: Rad-TRAM cells  Blue crosses: Lightning data (LINET) Cb indicator forecasts up to 6 hrs (Cblike)  Fuzzy logic combination of CAPE, 500 hPa vertical velocity, synthetic satellite and radar data from the DWD COSMO-DE model  Cb observation 21 June 2012  18:00 UTC                                                  Pink contours: Rad-TRAM cells  Blue crosses: Lightning data (LINET)    Summary • WxFUSION − integrates and overlays data from different sources (observations, nowcasts, forecasts) − is based on IDL and uses an object-oriented approach − selects the best forecast out of an ensemble − combines data by using fuzzy logic and enables Cb likelihood forecasts up to 6 hrs • modules of WxFUSION have successfully been tested in real time at Munich Airport Thank you for your attention! contact: dennis.stich@dlr.de 

An IDL-based weather forecast system for aviation using real-time data from remote sensing instruments, nowcasting tools and numerical models

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