A Partial Equilibrium (PE) model is developed to model fertiliser use in the grain crop and oilseed sectors to assess the impact of changes in the physical and economic environment on production and fertiliser use.
Since the adoption of a policy of trade liberalisation and the shift towards a free market for agricultural products, the actual cropping patterns of grain crops have moved closer to the expected optimum production pattern. It is shown that the total area cultivated will decrease by 2,4 percent. Results show that except for the area under sunflower (that remains unchanged) and yellow maize that increases, the area utilised by other crops will decrease.
Fertiliser use is directly correlated with production patterns in the provinces. A comparison of the base-case scenario and optimum solution revealed that the movement from a base to an optimum solution results in a drop in total area cultivated, production and exports. Fertiliser use correspondingly decreases.'n Parsiële Ewewigsmodel is ontwikkel om kunsmisverbruik in die graan en oliesade sektore te modelleer en om die impak van veranderinge in die fisiese en ekonomiese omgewings op produksie en kunsmisverbruik te bepaal.
Sedert die aanvarding en implementering van 'n beleid van handelsliberalisering en 'n vryemark vir landbouprodukte het die werklike produksiepatrone nader beweeg na die verwagte optimum produksiepatroon. Resultate toon dat die totale area onder bewerking met 2.4 persent sal daal, en dat behalwe vir sonneblomproduksie waar die area benut word onveranderd sal bly, dat dié van geelmielies sal toeneem en dat die area benut deur ander gewasse sal afneem.
Kunsmisverbruik is direk gekorreleerd met produksiepatrone in die provinsies. 'n Vergelyking van die basisgeval scenario en die optimale oplossing toon aan dat 'n beweging vanaf die basis na 'n optimale oplossing 'n daling in die totale area onder bewerking, produksie en uitvoere sal veroorsaak. Kunsmisverbruik sal dienooreenkomstig afneem.Article was written before M.C. Breitenbach joined the University of Pretoria.http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/ragr20hj2020Economic
