Modoni, Giuseppe

Paolella, Luca

Spacagna, Rose Line

UC Research Repository

Proposal #700748VALIDITY OF INDICATORS FOR LIQUEFACTION HAZARD AND DAMAGE ASSESSED WITH REAL CASE STUDIESASSESSMENT AND MITIGATION OF LIQUEFACTION POTENTIAL ACROSS EUROPEA holistic approach to protect structures / infrastructuresfor improved resilience to earthquake-inducedliquefaction disastersGiuseppe Modoni, Luca Paolella, Rose Line SpacagnaUniversity of Cassino and Southern LazioNELSON, 2 September 2019Liquefact(EU) – QuakeCoRE (NZ) International Workshop on“Assessment and Mitigation of Liquefaction Risk”G. Modoni - Validity of indicators for liquefaction hazard and damage assessed with real case studiesENGINEERING SEISMOLOGY is not a subject taught in Universities and it is one that requires both scientific and engineering knowledge. To acquire this it is not sufficient merely to attend short courses or read papers on the subject, it is necessary in addition to develop an intimate knowledge of all aspects of the subject; much of this can be achieved by studying the effects of earthquakes in the field. Through the field study of earthquake effects on engineering structures and on the ground itself, a unique opportunity exists to develop an understanding of the behaviour of full-scale structures, when tested by nature. It is only through properly run field studies that ground and structural failures, liquefaction and slope stability can be properly back-analysed. Existing building codes and regulations, as well as the efficacy of their enforcement and implementation, can be tested only after an earthquake. Furthermore, field study allows the interaction of ideas and the testing of theories in situ between members of a mission who are drawn from different disciplines and helps the young engineer to choose his line of research on realistic grounds and with enthusiasm. NICHOLAS NEOCLES AMBRASEYS (1929-2012)NELSON, 2 September 2019Liquefact(EU) – QuakeCoRE (NZ) International Workshop on“Assessment and Mitigation of Liquefaction Risk”G. Modoni - Validity of indicators for liquefaction hazard and damage assessed with real case studiesPEER - Cornell & Krawinkler 2000LIQUEFACTION RISK ASSESSMENTNELSON, 2 September 2019Liquefact(EU) – QuakeCoRE (NZ) International Workshop on“Assessment and Mitigation of Liquefaction Risk”G. Modoni - Validity of indicators for liquefaction hazard and damage assessed with real case studiesLocalizationDefinitionQuantificationLIQUEFACTION RISK ASSESSMENT¯Legend!> BOREHOLES#* CPT_22FEB1Placemark MultipatchPlacemark Polygonriver_clriver_poly! OREHOLES#* PT_ 2FEB1lacemark MultipatchPlacemark Polygonriver_clriver_poly0 5 102.5Km±FACTORS EVIDENCESValidationNELSON, 2 September 2019Liquefact(EU) – QuakeCoRE (NZ) International Workshop on“Assessment and Mitigation of Liquefaction Risk”G. Modoni - Validity of indicators for liquefaction hazard and damage assessed with real case studiesACCURACY COMPREHENSIVENESSSYNTHESISNELSON, 2 September 2019Liquefact(EU) – QuakeCoRE (NZ) International Workshop on“Assessment and Mitigation of Liquefaction Risk”G. Modoni - Validity of indicators for liquefaction hazard and damage assessed with real case studiesCross-validationStandard deviation of the errorCrust thickness from CPT profiles (m)DATA FILTERING AND MANAGEMENT OF UNCERTAINTYNELSON, 2 September 2019Liquefact(EU) – QuakeCoRE (NZ) International Workshop on“Assessment and Mitigation of Liquefaction Risk”G. Modoni - Validity of indicators for liquefaction hazard and damage assessed with real case studiesFALSE NEGATIVETRUE NEGATIVETRUE POSITIVEFALSE POSITIVEVALIDATION CRITERION: Prediction vs ObservationMETRICS (Luco & Cornell, 2007; Jalayer & Cornell, 2009)NELSON, 2 September 2019Liquefact(EU) – QuakeCoRE (NZ) International Workshop on“Assessment and Mitigation of Liquefaction Risk”G. Modoni - Validity of indicators for liquefaction hazard and damage assessed with real case studiesAUC=1AUC=0.5Receiver Operating Curve (Kongar et al., 2015)Area Under Curve (Kongar et al., 2015)VALIDATION CRITERIA: Prediction vs ObservationOPTIMAL TRESHOLD: Mathews Correlation Coefficient!"" = $$ % && − &$ % $&$$ + &$ $$ + $& && + &$ && + $& (Powers, 2011)NELSON, 2 September 2019Liquefact(EU) – QuakeCoRE (NZ) International Workshop on“Assessment and Mitigation of Liquefaction Risk”G. Modoni - Validity of indicators for liquefaction hazard and damage assessed with real case studiesMw 6.112 000 damaged buildings>1000 in situ tests (boreholes, CPT) Terre del Reno - Italy(2012)Mw 6.260 000 buildings and 1/3 of city infrastructures damaged 5.000 boreholes 15.000 CPT profilesChristchurch – New Zealand  (2010-2011)Mw 9.027.000 damaged buildings 2 000 collapsed levees, bridges230 SPT Urayasu - Japan (2011)Special thanks to:HAZARDVULNERABILITY OF BUILDINGSVULNERABILITY OF PIPELINESNELSON, 2 September 2019Liquefact(EU) – QuakeCoRE (NZ) International Workshop on“Assessment and Mitigation of Liquefaction Risk”G. Modoni - Validity of indicators for liquefaction hazard and damage assessed with real case studiesCHRISTCHURCH (NEW ZEALAND)¯0 5 102.5KmNELSON, 2 September 2019Liquefact(EU) – QuakeCoRE (NZ) International Workshop on“Assessment and Mitigation of Liquefaction Risk”G. Modoni - Validity of indicators for liquefaction hazard and damage assessed with real case studiesTERRE DEL RENO (ITALY)NELSON, 2 September 2019Liquefact(EU) – QuakeCoRE (NZ) International Workshop on“Assessment and Mitigation of Liquefaction Risk”G. Modoni - Validity of indicators for liquefaction hazard and damage assessed with real case studiesLIQUEFACTION HAZARD: Indicators!"#$% = '()*+(),- .1 012 ∗ 4 5 65Liquefaction for FSL < 1 Linear weight with depthCrust thickness (H1)Power-law depth weightεv (Dr, FSL) also for FSL>1 Hyperbolic depth weight(Boulanger & Idriss, 2014 -2015)NELSON, 2 September 2019Liquefact(EU) – QuakeCoRE (NZ) International Workshop on“Assessment and Mitigation of Liquefaction Risk”G. Modoni - Validity of indicators for liquefaction hazard and damage assessed with real case studiesLIQUEFACTION HAZARD: Validation criteriaTerre del Reno (San Carlo) – May 2012 15 mNELSON, 2 September 2019Liquefact(EU) – QuakeCoRE (NZ) International Workshop on“Assessment and Mitigation of Liquefaction Risk”G. Modoni - Validity of indicators for liquefaction hazard and damage assessed with real case studiesTerre del Reno – May 2012 (Mw=6.1) LIQUEFACTION HAZARD: Validation criteriaNELSON, 2 September 2019Liquefact(EU) – QuakeCoRE (NZ) International Workshop on“Assessment and Mitigation of Liquefaction Risk”G. Modoni - Validity of indicators for liquefaction hazard and damage assessed with real case studiesLIQUEFACTION HAZARD: Validation criteriaChristchurch – Feb 2011 – (Mw=6.2) NELSON, 2 September 2019Liquefact(EU) – QuakeCoRE (NZ) International Workshop on“Assessment and Mitigation of Liquefaction Risk”G. Modoni - Validity of indicators for liquefaction hazard and damage assessed with real case studiesLIQUEFACTION HAZARD: Validation criteria00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.910 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1TPRFNRROC curvesLSNLPILPIishw_cmChristchurch – Feb 2011 – (Mw=6.2) NELSON, 2 September 2019Liquefact(EU) – QuakeCoRE (NZ) International Workshop on“Assessment and Mitigation of Liquefaction Risk”G. Modoni - Validity of indicators for liquefaction hazard and damage assessed with real case studiesPREN1997 (Appendix H)! 1500 ÷13001150SLS ULSBoscardin & Cording (1989) VULNERABILITY OF BUILDINGS1. BUILDING TYPOLOGY (e.g. GEM taxonomy)2. DAMAGE SCALE (e.g. FEMA, 1999)3. ENGINEERING DEMAND  PARAMETERNELSON, 2 September 2019Liquefact(EU) – QuakeCoRE (NZ) International Workshop on“Assessment and Mitigation of Liquefaction Risk”G. Modoni - Validity of indicators for liquefaction hazard and damage assessed with real case studiesDamage probabilityEngineering Demand ParameterSlightModerateExtensiveCompleteVULNERABILITY OF BUILDINGS: EDPBird et al.(2006)Fotopoulou S., Karafagka S., Pitilakis K., (2018)NELSON, 2 September 2019Liquefact(EU) – QuakeCoRE (NZ) International Workshop on“Assessment and Mitigation of Liquefaction Risk”G. Modoni - Validity of indicators for liquefaction hazard and damage assessed with real case studiesVULNERABILITY OF BUILDINGS: EDPFACTORS GOVERNING DIFFERENTIAL SETTLEMENTS PREN1997 (2008)PREN1997 (2008)NELSON, 2 September 2019Liquefact(EU) – QuakeCoRE (NZ) International Workshop on“Assessment and Mitigation of Liquefaction Risk”G. Modoni - Validity of indicators for liquefaction hazard and damage assessed with real case studiesPM4-Sand (Sabbia)Hysteretic + MCDynamic  ---> PM4-Sand(Ziotopoulou & Boulanger, 2014)Hysteretic + MCMohr Coulomb (Argille)Tonni et al. (2012)FLAC 2DTerre del Reno – May 2012 (Mw=6.1) VULNERABILITY OF BUILDINGS: Numerical modellingNELSON, 2 September 2019Liquefact(EU) – QuakeCoRE (NZ) International Workshop on“Assessment and Mitigation of Liquefaction Risk”G. Modoni - Validity of indicators for liquefaction hazard and damage assessed with real case studiesVULNERABILITY OF BUILDINGS: Influence of building stiffnessHliq = 6 mHcrust= 4 mwmaxbB= 10 mLiquefiable layerVariable seismic inputGrant, Christian & Vanmarcke(1974)q= 50 kPa                   .CrustBase layer0.71.0 *May20th 20121.6NELSON, 2 September 2019Liquefact(EU) – QuakeCoRE (NZ) International Workshop on“Assessment and Mitigation of Liquefaction Risk”G. Modoni - Validity of indicators for liquefaction hazard and damage assessed with real case studiesRFEM (Fenton and Griffiths, 2000).VULNERABILITY OF BUILDINGS: Influence of subsoil variabilityNELSON, 2 September 2019Liquefact(EU) – QuakeCoRE (NZ) International Workshop on“Assessment and Mitigation of Liquefaction Risk”G. Modoni - Validity of indicators for liquefaction hazard and damage assessed with real case studiesVULNERABILITY OF BUILDINGS: Influence of subsoil variabilityHliq = 6 mHcrust = 1-4 mwmaxdB= 0.8  mSpatially variable relative densityVariable seismic inputq= 100 kPaHliq = 6 mHcrust = 1-4 mwmax dB= 10 mSpatially variable relative densityVariable seismic inputq= 50 kPa0.71.0 May20th 20121.60.71.0 May20th 20121.6NELSON, 2 September 2019Liquefact(EU) – QuakeCoRE (NZ) International Workshop on“Assessment and Mitigation of Liquefaction Risk”G. Modoni - Validity of indicators for liquefaction hazard and damage assessed with real case studiesKaramitros et al. (2013) Bullock et al. (2018)Bray & Macedo (2017)NELSON, 2 September 2019Liquefact(EU) – QuakeCoRE (NZ) International Workshop on“Assessment and Mitigation of Liquefaction Risk”G. Modoni - Validity of indicators for liquefaction hazard and damage assessed with real case studiesVULNERABILITY OF BUILDINGS: ValidationChristchurch (2010-2011)Terre Del Reno (2012)ri t r  ( - )rr  l  ( )ristc rc  ( - )rr  l  ( )Christchurch (2010-2011)Terre Del Reno (2012)Christchurch (2010-2011)Te re Del Reno (2012)Van Ballegooy et al. (2014)NELSON, 2 September 2019Liquefact(EU) – QuakeCoRE (NZ) International Workshop on“Assessment and Mitigation of Liquefaction Risk”G. Modoni - Validity of indicators for liquefaction hazard and damage assessed with real case studiesVULNERABILITY OF BUILDINGS: ValidationSant’AgostinoSan CarloMirabello38%62%9%91%74%26% shakingliquefactionNELSON, 2 September 2019Liquefact(EU) – QuakeCoRE (NZ) International Workshop on“Assessment and Mitigation of Liquefaction Risk”G. Modoni - Validity of indicators for liquefaction hazard and damage assessed with real case studiesVULNERABILITY OF BUILDINGS: Absolute settlementsINDICATOR AUC OPT THRESHSadj 0.71 ≈12 (mm)Ds 0.68 5-7 (mm)ρ 0.56 ≈3 (mm)LSN 0.58 ≈24TERRE DEL RENO (Italy)  May 20th 2012  MW=5.9NELSON, 2 September 2019Liquefact(EU) – QuakeCoRE (NZ) International Workshop on“Assessment and Mitigation of Liquefaction Risk”G. Modoni - Validity of indicators for liquefaction hazard and damage assessed with real case studiesVULNERABILITY OF BUILDINGS: Absolute settlementsChristchurch February 22nd 2011 - MW=6.2INDICATOR AUCSadj (Bullock et al., 2018) 0.63Dt (Bray  Macedo, 2017) 0.63Ρ (Karamitros et al., 2013) 0.63LSN (van Ballegooy et al., 2014)0.57NELSON, 2 September 2019Liquefact(EU) – QuakeCoRE (NZ) International Workshop on“Assessment and Mitigation of Liquefaction Risk”G. Modoni - Validity of indicators for liquefaction hazard and damage assessed with real case studiesVULNERABILITY OF BUILDINGS: Absolute settlementsChristchurch February 22nd 2011 - MW=6.2Taylor et al. (2015)- Number of building levels >2- Three layer subsoil (ESPerr<10%)- Moderate damageNELSON, 2 September 2019Liquefact(EU) – QuakeCoRE (NZ) International Workshop on“Assessment and Mitigation of Liquefaction Risk”G. Modoni - Validity of indicators for liquefaction hazard and damage assessed with real case studiesVULNERABILITY OF BUILDINGS: Absolute settlementsChristchurch February 22nd 2011 - MW=6.2Taylor et al. (2015)- Number of building levels >2- Three layer subsoil (err<10%)- Major damageNELSON, 2 September 2019Liquefact(EU) – QuakeCoRE (NZ) International Workshop on“Assessment and Mitigation of Liquefaction Risk”G. Modoni - Validity of indicators for liquefaction hazard and damage assessed with real case studies>400 km 200 km E-W time-series data at K-NET CHB008N-S time-series data at K-NET CHB008MW=9.0NELSON, 2 September 2019Liquefact(EU) – QuakeCoRE (NZ) International Workshop on“Assessment and Mitigation of Liquefaction Risk”G. Modoni - Validity of indicators for liquefaction hazard and damage assessed with real case studies1969 1974-1978 1979-1983History of reclamation in Tokyo Bay area (Slightly modified from Endoh (2004)).NELSON, 2 September 2019Liquefact(EU) – QuakeCoRE (NZ) International Workshop on“Assessment and Mitigation of Liquefaction Risk”G. Modoni - Validity of indicators for liquefaction hazard and damage assessed with real case studiesAA’A A’URAYASU (CHIBA PREFECTURE)LiquefactionNELSON, 2 September 2019Liquefact(EU) – QuakeCoRE (NZ) International Workshop on“Assessment and Mitigation of Liquefaction Risk”G. Modoni - Validity of indicators for liquefaction hazard and damage assessed with real case studiesNELSON, 2 September 2019Liquefact(EU) – QuakeCoRE (NZ) International Workshop on“Assessment and Mitigation of Liquefaction Risk”G. Modoni - Validity of indicators for liquefaction hazard and damage assessed with real case studiesGeotechnicalDatabaseDamageSurveyNELSON, 2 September 2019Liquefact(EU) – QuakeCoRE (NZ) International Workshop on“Assessment and Mitigation of Liquefaction Risk”G. Modoni - Validity of indicators for liquefaction hazard and damage assessed with real case studiesFACTORS vs EFFECTS DemandGround settlementsDamage0 1 kmNELSON, 2 September 2019Liquefact(EU) – QuakeCoRE (NZ) International Workshop on“Assessment and Mitigation of Liquefaction Risk”G. Modoni - Validity of indicators for liquefaction hazard and damage assessed with real case studiesDemandGround settlementsDAMAGE ON PIPELINESDamage0 1 kmNELSON, 2 September 2019Liquefact(EU) – QuakeCoRE (NZ) International Workshop on“Assessment and Mitigation of Liquefaction Risk”G. Modoni - Validity of indicators for liquefaction hazard and damage assessed with real case studiesDemandGround settlementsDamage00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.910 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1TPRFPRROC curvewAUC=0.78DAMAGE ON PIPELINESNELSON, 2 September 2019Liquefact(EU) – QuakeCoRE (NZ) International Workshop on“Assessment and Mitigation of Liquefaction Risk”G. Modoni - Validity of indicators for liquefaction hazard and damage assessed with real case studiesDemandGround settlementsDamage00.050.10.150.20.250.30.350.40.450 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70P(D|w)w (cm)DAMAGE ON PIPELINESNELSON, 2 September 2019Liquefact(EU) – QuakeCoRE (NZ) International Workshop on“Assessment and Mitigation of Liquefaction Risk”G. Modoni - Validity of indicators for liquefaction hazard and damage assessed with real case studiesDemandGround settlementsDamage00.050.10.150.20.250.30.350 20 40 60 80 100P(D|W)W (cm)DAMAGE ON PIPELINESNELSON, 2 September 2019Liquefact(EU) – QuakeCoRE (NZ) International Workshop on“Assessment and Mitigation of Liquefaction Risk”G. Modoni - Validity of indicators for liquefaction hazard and damage assessed with real case studiesDemandGround settlementsDamage010203040506070LPI - w_measured (cm)LPI<2 2<LPI<5 5<LPI<15 LPI>15010203040506070LSN - w_measured (cm)LSN<10 10<LSN<20 20<LSN<3030<LSN<40 LSN>40010203040506070w_pred (cm) - w_measured (cm)w<10 cm 10 cm<w<20 cm20 cm<w<30 cm w>30 cmNELSON, 2 September 2019Liquefact(EU) – QuakeCoRE (NZ) International Workshop on“Assessment and Mitigation of Liquefaction Risk”G. Modoni - Validity of indicators for liquefaction hazard and damage assessed with real case studiesDemandGround settlementsDamage00.10.20.30.40.50 10 20 30 40 50P(D|x)w predicted 00.10.20.30.40.50 5 10 15 20 25P(D|x)LPI00.10.20.30.40.50 10 20 30 40 50P(D|x)LSNDAMAGE ON PIPELINESNELSON, 2 September 2019Liquefact(EU) – QuakeCoRE (NZ) International Workshop on“Assessment and Mitigation of Liquefaction Risk”G. Modoni - Validity of indicators for liquefaction hazard and damage assessed with real case studiesLOCALIZATIONDEFINITIONQUANTIFICATIONLIQUEFACTION RISK ASSESSMENTExploit all informationQuantify errors of estimates Reduce uncertainty GEOSTATISTICSNELSON, 2 September 2019Liquefact(EU) – QuakeCoRE (NZ) International Workshop on“Assessment and Mitigation of Liquefaction Risk”G. Modoni - Validity of indicators for liquefaction hazard and damage assessed with real case studiesLOCALIZATIONDEFINITIONQUANTIFICATIONLIQUEFACTION RISK ASSESSMENTEngineering Demand ParametersSTATISTICS-LPI/LPI_Ish/LSN - single/multiple liquefiable layerEDP for buildings: settlementNELSON, 2 September 2019Liquefact(EU) – QuakeCoRE (NZ) International Workshop on“Assessment and Mitigation of Liquefaction Risk”G. Modoni - Validity of indicators for liquefaction hazard and damage assessed with real case studiesLOCALIZATIONDEFINITIONQUANTIFICATIONLIQUEFACTION RISK ASSESSMENTSan Carlo (Terre del Reno)Proposal #700748University of Cassino and Southern LazioRose Line Spacagna Luca PaolellaErminio Salvatore Roberta Proia

Liquefact: Validity of Indicators for Liquefaction Hazard and Damage Assessed with Real Case Studies

https://ir.canterbury.ac.nz/bitstream/10092/17382/1/Modoni_LFQC_WS.pdf

Liquefact: Validity of Indicators for Liquefaction Hazard and Damage Assessed with Real Case Studies

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