For Ukraine’s citizens to return to a normal way of life, it will be necessary to establish a sustainable peace between the country and Russia. Daniela Irrera argues a coherent debate on the future settlement in Ukraine should not wait for the end of hostilities – it should start now and involve the commitment of western powers

Irrera, Daniela

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LSE Research Online

How	a	lasting	settlement	to	the	Russia-Ukraine	warcan	be	achievedFor	Ukraine’s	citizens	to	return	to	a	normal	way	of	life,	it	will	be	necessary	to	establish	a	sustainable	peace	betweenthe	country	and	Russia.	Daniela	Irrera	argues	a	coherent	debate	on	the	future	settlement	in	Ukraine	should	notwait	for	the	end	of	hostilities	–	it	should	start	now	and	involve	the	commitment	of	western	powers.The	most	recent	images	of	civilian	massacres	in	various	parts	of	Ukraine	are	horrifying.	Reminiscent	of	the	warcrimes	and	genocide	that	took	place	during	the	Bosnian	War	in	the	1990s,	these	events	have	provoked	animmediate	reaction	from	people	across	Europe.	They	come	at	a	time	when	Russia	is	redeploying	its	forces	to	carryout	a	new	offensive	in	the	Donbas	region	in	eastern	Ukraine.Yet	while	western	powers	are	now	focusing	on	the	immediate	military	escalation	in	Donbas	–	and	debating	whethermore	weapons	and	equipment	should	be	provided	to	the	Ukrainian	army	–	a	deep	reflection	on	what	will	happen	inthe	country	in	the	medium	and	long	term	should	already	be	underway.	Three	major	aspects	should	be	consideredof	particular	relevance	to	any	lasting	settlement	in	the	country,	though	other	factors	will	undoubtedly	emerge	in	thecoming	months	and	years.The	political	dimensionFirst,	the	future	political	regime	in	Ukraine	will	be	crucial.	The	country	is	part	of	the	Russian	area	of	influence,	whichincludes	a	variety	of	hybrid	and	illiberal	regimes,	but	also	loyal	allies	(Belarus	and	Kazakhstan),	hectic	‘rebels’(Georgia),	and	ambiguous	entities	(Kyrgyzstan	and	Tajikistan)	that	are	neither	aligned	with	the	Kremlin	nor	directlyopposed	to	it.Russia	has	long	been	accustomed	to	dominating	political	elites	within	this	area	of	influence,	including	by	authorisingexternal	military	interventions	and	promoting	regime	change.	Among	the	states	counted	as	‘rebels’,	Ukraine	hasbeen	the	most	independent	and	western-oriented,	underlined	by	the	Orange	Revolution	in	2004-5	and	the	events	ofthe	Euromaidan	that	ultimately	brought	an	end	to	the	regime	of	Viktor	Yanukovych.	Russia’s	current	invasion	ofUkraine	is	aimed	at	overthrowing	the	country’s	political	leadership	and	bringing	what	it	views	as	a	rebel	regime	intoline.It	is	now	obvious	that	Vladimir	Putin	badly	miscalculated	not	only	the	capacity	of	the	Ukrainian	army	to	resistRussian	forces	on	the	battlefield,	but	also	President	Zelenskyy’s	ability	to	build	consensus	internally	and	externally.In	addition	to	boosting	the	morale	of	his	nation	and	acquiring	almost	unanimous	popular	support,	Zelenskyy	hasgained	external	legitimacy	through	video	appearances	in	foreign	parliaments	and	by	receiving	the	leaders	ofseveral	states	in	Kyiv.Zelenskyy	has	effectively	become	the	reference	point	for	all	diplomatic	negotiations.	Regardless	of	his	realobjectives	–	notably	his	views	on	entry	into	NATO	or	the	EU	–	it	is	now	difficult	to	imagine	a	future	Ukraine	withouthis	leadership.	The	first	element	in	establishing	a	settlement	for	Ukraine	will	thus	be	how	Zelenskyy	seeks	to	chartUkraine’s	future,	and	whether	he	can	use	his	growing	influence	to	help	secure	a	sustainable	peace.DemilitarisationSecond,	the	demilitarisation	of	Ukraine	following	the	conflict	will	be	a	long	and	troubled	process.	Since	2014,	theDonbas	region	has	been	at	the	heart	of	a	progressive	mobilisation	of	battalions	and	private	armies,	alongside	theofficial	armed	forces	of	both	sides.	Some	of	these,	such	as	the	Azov	battalion	and	other	neo-Nazi	groups,	havebeen	widely	discussed	due	to	Russia’s	claim	that	it	is	in	the	process	of	‘denazifying’	Ukraine.	However,	these	arenot	the	only	military	units	whose	nature	or	identity	remains	unclear.LSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog: How a lasting settlement to the Russia-Ukraine war can be achieved Page 1 of 2		Date originally posted: 2022-04-26Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2022/04/26/how-a-lasting-settlement-to-the-russia-ukraine-war-can-be-achieved/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/The	escalation	of	the	conflict	has	seen	an	increase	in	the	presence	of	mercenaries	and	paramilitaries,	includingWagner	group	contractors,	many	of	whom	have	previously	fought	in	Syria,	the	Chechen	wars,	and	in	other	parts	ofthe	world	such	as	the	Central	African	Republic.	There	is	already	substantial	evidence	of	serious	violations	of	humanrights,	torture,	ethnic	cleansing,	and	the	use	of	unconventional	weapons.	Like	most	contemporary	intrastateconflicts	since	the	end	of	the	Cold	War,	the	fighting	has	become	characterised	by	the	privatisation	of	violence	anddeliberate	attacks	on	civilians.	However,	in	Ukraine	these	features	have	been	particularly	prominent.The	second	challenge	in	reaching	a	lasting	settlement	for	Ukraine	will	therefore	be	to	demilitarise	this	situation	andestablish	peace.	History	suggests	that	it	will	be	exceptionally	difficult	to	achieve	this	given	the	pattern	of	violencethat	has	now	been	present	in	the	region	for	several	years.Resolving	the	humanitarian	crisisThe	third	and	final	problem	is	addressing	the	humanitarian	dimension	of	the	conflict.	This	will	entail	not	onlyproviding	support	to	the	huge	numbers	of	refugees	who	have	left	the	country	since	the	conflict	began,	but	alsohelping	internally	displaced	people	who	remain	in	Ukraine	and	have	had	to	flee	their	homes.This	is	not	a	new	problem	for	Ukraine.	It	began	in	2014	when	thousands	of	people	were	forced	to	leave	the	Donetskand	Luhansk	regions	and	travel	to	safer	parts	of	the	country.	However,	the	problem	has	greatly	expanded	sinceRussia’s	invasion	in	February.	Although	the	United	Nations	Protection	Cluster	has	advanced	estimates,	it	is	difficultfor	the	authorities	and	those	who	are	seeking	to	deliver	aid	to	fully	understand	how	many	internally	displacedpeople	require	assistance,	particularly	those	in	the	most	vulnerable	categories,	like	children,	women,	and	theelderly.	Regardless	of	the	final	number	of	refugees	and	internally	displaced	people,	managing	the	post-conflictsituation	will	be	incredibly	difficult.With	all	of	these	factors	considered,	a	lasting	settlement	for	Ukraine	will	have	to	balance	the	political	situation	in	thecountry,	establish	demilitarisation	in	areas	where	violence	is	now	the	norm,	and	provide	the	necessary	support	tothose	in	need	of	humanitarian	assistance	–	all	while	rebuilding	the	political	balance	in	Russia’s	area	of	influenceand	addressing	major	structural	issues	such	as	Europe’s	dependence	on	Russian	energy.	Any	viable	solution	willimply	economic,	political,	and	social	costs	for	those	in	the	West.	And	for	this	reason,	it	is	vital	that	western	powersbegin	the	process	of	reaching	a	settlement	for	Ukraine	now	rather	than	waiting	for	the	end	of	hostilities.Note:	This	article	gives	the	views	of	the	author,	not	the	position	of	EUROPP	–	European	Politics	and	Policy	or	theLondon	School	of	Economics.	Featured	image	credit:	Tetiana	SHYSHKINA	on	UnsplashLSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog: How a lasting settlement to the Russia-Ukraine war can be achieved Page 2 of 2		Date originally posted: 2022-04-26Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2022/04/26/how-a-lasting-settlement-to-the-russia-ukraine-war-can-be-achieved/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/

How a lasting settlement to the Russia-Ukraine war can be achieved

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How a lasting settlement to the Russia-Ukraine war can be achieved

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