Ben Worthy and Mark Bennister argue that Boris Johnson as Prime Minister was overvalued and oversold

Bennister, Mark

Worthy, Ben

English

LSE Research Online

Johnson	is	neither	a	charismatic	failure	nor	a	tragicfigure.	He	hasn’t	made	the	political	weather	simplybecause	he	has	been	oversoldBen	Worthy	and	Mark	Bennister	argue	that	Boris	Johnson	as	Prime	Minister	wasovervalued	and	oversold.Boris	Johnson’s	leadership	has	again	come	under	scrutiny	in	the	wake	of	the	localelections,	which	proved	to	be	at	the	far	end	of	pollsters’	worst	case	scenarios.Initially,	the	reaction	from	Conservatives	in	England	was	relatively	subdued,	thoughby	Saturday	one	unnamed	MP	was	muttering	that	the	Prime	Minister	was	‘killing	ourtraditional	vote’	and	others	that	‘partygate’	was	coming	up	on	the	proverbial	doorstep.	Significantly	for	a	PrimeMinister	who	made	himself	Minister	for	the	Union,	the	Scottish	and	Welsh	Conservatives	squarely	blamed	Johnsonand	his	scandals.	Ministers	are	now	having	to	publicly	insist	their	leader	is	‘still	an	asset’.How,	in	the	space	of	three	years,	are	we	here?	Johnson’s	story	as	Prime	Minister	can	be	told	through	one	of	twonarratives.	One	approach,	let’s	call	it	the	Shakespearean	tale,	is	of	hubris	and	nemesis.	This	is	a	very	human	storyof	a	populist	and	popular	politician	with	a	common	touch,	brought	down	by	their	personal	failings,	all	very	apt	for	aleader	throwing	out	threats	from	King	Lear.	It	is	the	rogue	who	finally	got	caught,	or	the	gambler	who	bet	the	houseand	lost.	A	second	way	of	understanding	Johnson,	we	can	call	the	‘tides	of	fortune’	tale,	is	about	context,	and	tellsof	a	Prime	Minister	whose	sunny	optimism	and	sloganeering	strengths	on	Brexit	became	weaknesses	in	the	face	ofa	deadly	pandemic.These	two	stories	strike	at	the	heart	of	how	we	think	about	leaders,	and	straddle	the	age-old	question	asked	byMachiavelli,	as	to	whether	it	is	personality	or	context	that	matters	in	leadership.	Do	leaders	manage	to	change	thepolitical	weather	or	–	whatever	their	perceived	power	and	authority	–	are	they	stymied	by	forces	beyond	theircontrol?Depleted	Leadership	CapitalEach	of	these	stories	implies	that	Johnson	was	once	strong	and	is	now	weak.	However,	using	the	idea	of‘leadership	capital’,	a	rather	different	picture	emerges.	Leadership	capital	is	the	idea	of	a	leader	having	a	‘stock’	ofcapital	or	authority	that	they	can	spend	or	lose	over	time.	It	is	based	on	three	core	elements:	skills,	relations,	andreputation.	Much	was	made	of	Johnson	appearing	to	have	deep	stocks	of	leadership	capital,	and	having	the‘weather-making’	power	to	remake	British	politics	however	he	wished.	After	months	in	power	in	2019,	one	journalistclaimed	that	Johnson’s	‘short	period	of	time	has	been	revolutionary,	and	his	resounding	victory	means	he	canremake	the	country’.However,	there	is	a	different	story	of	fragility	and	oversell,	rather	than	fallen	‘greatness’	or	changing	tides.	To	pickout	a	few	strands,	on	close	investigation	his	communication,	popularity,	and	party	relations	are	all	more	brittle	thanthey	had	appeared.Fragile	SkillsJohnson’s	communication	skills	were	always	seen	as	his	major	source	of	power,	though	his	skills	were	very	far	fromthe	oratory	traditionally	expected.	His	set-piece	speeches	have	been	bizarre	failures,	whether	a	‘frantic	diatribedelivered	at	such	a	pace	that	the	audience	looked	bemused’	at	a	party	conference	or	a	key	a	speech	to	the	CBI,which	many	hoped	would	set	out	a	vision	for	levelling	up,	that	instead	focused	on	Peppa	Pig	World.British Politics and Policy at LSE: Johnson is neither a charismatic failure nor a tragic figure. He hasn’t made the political weather simply because he hasbeen oversoldPage 1 of 3		Date originally posted: 2022-05-11Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/boris-johnson-oversold-pm/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/His	influence,	and	supposed	reach,	lay	in	this	informal	style,	coupled	with	an	ability	for	self-mockery.	His	approachattracted	attention,	distracted	opponents,	and	helped	avoid	difficult	questions,	often	simultaneously.	They	alsohelped	seal	his	‘outsider-ness’	while	also	sending	messages	to	certain	voters.	Yet	somewhere	between	2019	and2022,	Johnson’s	style	became	subject	to	diminishing	returns	–	an	inverse	Midas	touch.	His	informal	style	provedparticularly	unsuited	to	the	pandemic	response,	from	his	continued	hand-shaking	to	allegations	of	much	worse	off-hand	comments.	His	false	accusations	over	Keir	Starmer	around	Jimmy	Saville	exposed	his	darker	side,	provokingdissent	in	his	own	party.	At	the	same	time,	voters	became	increasingly	unhappy	with	the	lies,	distortion,	anduntruths	that	seemed	part	and	parcel	of	his	approach.Fragile	relationsThere’s	a	similar	fragility	to	his	popularity.	Johnson’s	claim	to	‘Heineken’	status	and	electoral	appeal	rests	on	histime	as	Mayor	when	he	twice	won	in	a	Labour-controlled	city.Yet	data	tell	an	interesting	story	of	over-sell	in	Downing	Street.	As	this	YouGov	analysis	explains,	‘since	the	2019General	Election,	there	has	been	something	of	a	myth	surrounding	Boris	Johnson	–	that	he	is	(or	was)a	popular	Prime	Minister	on	which	very	little	would	“stick”.’		Theresa	May	was	more	popular	than	Johnson	ever	was,and	his	unpopularity	has	now	plumbed	depths	May’s	never	reached.	His	popularity	has	always	been	relative,	notabsolute:	it	was	dislike	of	Red	Ken	and	Jezza	that	lost	it,	not	love	for	‘Boris’	that	won	it.	The	myth	of	Johnson	as	a‘different’	and	‘popular’	politician	was	pushed	along	by	media	portrayals	of	a	man	who	supposedly	did	quadraticequations	to	relax,	and	Conservative	MPs	hoping	it	was	true.This	is	not	to	say	Johnson’s	presence	didn’t	count	at	certain	points.	There	was	clearly	a	‘Boris	effect’	in	2016	andone	study	of	Brexit	concluded	that	he	‘had	a	particularly	important	effect	–if	you	liked	Boris	then	even	aftercontrolling	for	a	host	of	other	factors	you	were	significantly	more	likely	to	vote	for	Brexit’.	Again	in	2019,	Johnson’simpact	was	important	but	in	a	rather	more	narrow	way	of	attracting	parts	of	the	leave	vote,	and	was	less	about	hispopularity	and	more	Jeremy	Corbyn’s	unpopularity.British Politics and Policy at LSE: Johnson is neither a charismatic failure nor a tragic figure. He hasn’t made the political weather simply because he hasbeen oversoldPage 2 of 3		Date originally posted: 2022-05-11Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/boris-johnson-oversold-pm/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/But	by	2022,	Johnson’s	electoral	coalition	of	Red	and	Blue	Walls,	supposed	to	be	the	basis	of	new	settlement	inEnglish	politics,	looks	now	increasingly	fragile	and	unstable.	After	the	2022	local	elections,	it	appears	the	Blue	Wallis	crumbling	under	the	pressure	of	the	Lib-Dems.	In	the	famous	‘Red	Wall’,	as	this	Sky	News	analysis	explains,	‘…the	average	voter	didn’t	like	Boris	Johnson	any	more	than	in	other	parts	of	the	country.	It	was	just	that	there	wereLeave	voters	there	in	higher	numbers’.Fragile	ReputationA	final	area	of	brittleness	is	his	own	party,	which	is	as	divided	as	the	voting	coalition	which	created	it.	Johnsonshould	have	presided	over	a	group	of	MPs	grateful	for	his	election	victory	and	getting	Brexit	done.	His	MPs	haveproved	to	be	appreciative	of	nothing,	making	his	current	73-seat	majority	extraordinarily	shaky.	He	has	facedrebellions	on	a	whole	range	of	issues,	from	NHS	parking	charges	to	lockdown	laws.	Instead	of	a	Prime	Ministerpassing	laws	and	making	changes	to	embed	a	reputation,	there	were	continual	U-turns	and	shifts.	Since	October2021	and	the	Owen	Paterson	vote,	relations	have	soured	with	the	Conservative	Parliamentary	Party,	with	only‘events’	putting	off	a	leadership	challenge	over	the	rumbling	partygate	saga.Johnson	is	neither	a	charismatic	failure	nor	a	tragic	figure.	He	hasn’t	made	the	weather	simply	because	he	hasbeen	oversold.	As	others	have	pointed	out,	Johnson’s	time	in	office	increasingly	resembles	Berlusconi’s:	asupposed	outsider	promising	change,	coming	to	power	amid	a	politics	in	deep	flux,	and	sitting	atop	an	unwieldlycoalition	and	polarised	country.	Both	were	masters	of	over-promising	and	saying	much	(often	controversially)	butdoing	little.	They	even	share	a	love	of	(unbuilt)	bridges.	But	like	Berlusconi,	will	it	be	scandal	that	finally	removeshim?___________________About	the	AuthorsBen	Worthy	is	a	Senior	Lecturer	in	Politics	at	Birkbeck,	University	of	London.		Mark	Bennister	is	Associate	Professor	in	Politics	at	the	University	of	Lincoln.				Featured	image	credit:	by	Andrew	Parsons	/	No	10	Downing	Street	on	Flickr	under	CC	BY-NC-ND	2.0	licence.British Politics and Policy at LSE: Johnson is neither a charismatic failure nor a tragic figure. He hasn’t made the political weather simply because he hasbeen oversoldPage 3 of 3		Date originally posted: 2022-05-11Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/boris-johnson-oversold-pm/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/

Johnson is neither a charismatic failure nor a tragic figure. He hasn’t made the political weather simply because he has been oversold

http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/116328/1/politicsandpolicy_boris_johnson_oversold.pdf

Johnson is neither a charismatic failure nor a tragic figure. He hasn’t made the political weather simply because he has been oversold

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