Gerstengarbe, F.-W.

Gräfe, P.

Hattermann, F.

English

Repositorium für Naturwissenschaften und Technik

BMeteorologische Zeitschrift, Vol. 24, No. 2, 121–122 Editorial© 2015 The authorsGerman climate change impact studyFriedrich-Wilhelm Gerstengarbe, Fred Hattermann and Peggy Gräfe∗Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, GermanyThe scientific as well as the public discussion on the topic of climate change frequently oscillates betweencatastrophism and playing down its threat. As often, the truth probably lies in between since the impacts of climatechange are very different in different regions of the world. This will continue to be the case in the future: 2 °C moreat global average could, for example, mean 4 degrees more in the Arctic, and less than 2 degrees in the Sahara.This special issue breaks new ground: for the papers presented here, natural and social scientists coordinatedthe results of their research. During this interaction it became obvious to all authors that it is more difficult to graspinteractions between climate and social systems than to describe the systems individually. Complex interactionsbetween climatic changes and human society have to be considered. This is because not only the type and force ofan event are relevant but also the extent to which prevention and management capacities are present in a society.An extreme weather event only becomes a natural disaster if it meets vulnerable social conditions.A comprehensive consideration of all social climate impacts was not possible and was not the aim of this specialissue. For this reason, the scenario period was confined to the next 30–40 years, and a temperature increase of 2 °Cfor the period 1901 to 2040 was assumed, along with changes of other important meteorological values, such asprecipitation, climatic water balance, or sunshine duration (Gerstengarbe et al., 2015). The meteorological dataare used as an input to specific models describing climatic impacts on particular areas of the environment andsociety. It is important to note here that, with respect to the climatic development, only one possible future will bediscussed. Different assumptions could result in an infinite series of other “futures” for Germany.The results show that under climate change conditions as considered in this study, climate change impacts willbe moderate until 2040, and new opportunities may also appear.In conclusion, the aim of the research presented here is to enhance our understanding of this complex problemand to solicit more interdisciplinary research. For the first time, a plausible scenario integrating environmental andsocial aspects of the situation in Germany in 2040 is presented. It is a novelty that climatologists, hydrologists,viticultural and forest scientists developed such a climate impact scenario together with social scientists. This hasbeen long overdue. Such an interdisciplinary approach is essential to realistically assess what impacts society willface in future, what worries are unfounded, and how society can today prepare for tomorrow.The climate scenario consistently used in all impact studies of this volume is presented in Gerstengarbe et al.(2015). The specific impact models and simulation results for Germany are discussed in Lasch-Born et al. (2015)for the forest sector, in Hattermann et al. (2015) for water resources and by Kartschall et al. (2015) for theviticultural sector. Koch et al. (2015) investigated the sensitivity of the electricity sector in Germany to climatechange, and Gutsch et al. (2015) analysed the vulnerability and possible contribution of biomass production in thefuture. These results are taken up and complemented by a sociological analysis of what the complex interactionsbetween climatic changes and human society could look like under such climate scenario conditions. Sommerand Schad (2015) investigated potential societal consequences of climatic changes as modelled for Germany andprospective developments, while the specific values and dynamics of adaptation to climate change are described inWessels (2015). It is shown that the question of what will change and what will be preserved is not prescribed bythe facts of climate change and technology, but is contingent on choices to be made by society (Wessels, 2015).ReferencesGerstengarbe, F.-W., P. Hoffmann, H. Österle, P.C. Werner, 2015: Ensemble simulations for the RCP8.5-Scenario. –Meteorol. Z., 24, 147–156 DOI: 10.1127/metz/2014/0523Gutsch, M., P. Lasch-Born, A.B. Lüttger, F. Suckow, A. Murawski, T. Pilz, 2015: Uncertainty of biomass contributions fromagriculture and forestry to renewable energy resources under climate change. – Meteorol. Z., 24, DOI: 10.1127/metz/2015/0532Hattermann, F.F., S. Huang, H. Koch, 2015: Climate change impacts on hydrology and water resources. – Meteorol. Z., 24,201–211 DOI: 10.1127/metz/2014/0575Kartschall, T., M. Wodinski, W. von Bloh, H. Österle, C. Rachimow, D. Hoppmann, 2015: Changes in phenology and frostrisks of Vitis vinifera (cv Riesling). – Meteorol. Z., 24, 189–200 DOI: 10.1127/metz/2014/0534Koch, H., S. Vögele, F.F. Hattermann, S. Huang, 2015: The impact of climate change and variability on the generation ofelectrical power. – Meteorol. Z., 24, 173–188 DOI: 10.1127/metz/2015/0530∗Corresponding author: Peggy Gräfe, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg P.O. Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam, Germany, e-mail:graefe@pik-potsdam.de© 2015 The authorsDOI 10.1127/metz/2015/0666 Gebrüder Borntraeger Science Publishers, Stuttgart, www.borntraeger-cramer.com122 F.W. Gerstengarbe et al.: Editorial Meteorol. Z., 24, 2015Lasch-Born, P., F. Suckow, M. Gutsch, C. Reyer, Y. Hauf, A. Murawski, T. Pilz, 2015: Forests under climate change: potentialrisks and opportunities. – Meteorol. Z., 24, 157–172 DOI: 10.1127/metz/2014/0526Sommer, B., M. Schad, 2015: Climate change and society: possible impacts and prospective developments. – Meteorol. Z., 24,137–145 DOI: 10.1127/metz/2014/0522Wessels, S., 2015: What to change and what to keep? Values and dynamics of adaptation to climate change. – Meteorol. Z., 24,123–135 DOI: 10.1127/metz/2014/0521

German climate change impact study

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German climate change impact study

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