A new approximation of mean-time trends for the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic evolving in key six countries

Abstract

We have presented in the current analytic research the generating formulae and results of direct mathematical modelling of non-classical trends for COVID-19’s evolution in world which, nevertheless, can be divided into two types: (1) the general trends for European countries such as Germany presented by the curve of modified sigmoid-type with up-inclination of the upper limit of saturation (at the end of first wave of pandemic) as well as for other cases of key countries that suffered from pandemic such as USA, India, Brazil, Russia (we conclude that the same type of coronavirus pandemic is valid for most of the countries in world with similar scenarios of the same type for general trends); (2) non-classical general trends for Middle East countries (such as Iran), with the appropriate bulge on graphical plots at the beginning of first wave of pandemic. We expect that the second wave of pandemic will pass its peak at the end of December 2020 for various countries. Moreover, the second wave of pandemic will have come to end at first decade of January 2021 in Germany and Iran (but at the end of January 2021 in India as well), so we should restrict ourselves in modelling the first and second waves of pandemic within this time period for these countries. Thus, the model of first approximation is considered here which allows to understand the mean-time trends of COVID-19 evolution for the first + second waves of pandemic for USA, Brazil and Russia, or predict the approximated time period of the upcoming third wave of pandemic in cases of India, Germany and Iran. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. part of Springer Nature