Source: ICHE Conference Archive - https://mdi-de.baw.de/icheArchiv

Hausmann, Bernd

Homann, Christof

Kufeld, Matthias

Schüttrumpf, Holger

English

Hydraulic Engineering Repository

Conference Paper, Published VersionKufeld, Matthias; Schüttrumpf, Holger; Hausmann, Bernd; Homann,ChristofCombining Reliability, Resilience, Vulnerability Criteria andDownstream Flood Risk to derive robust AdaptationStrategies of Multi-Reservoir, multiobjective WaterResources System Operation under Climate ChangeZur Verfügung gestellt in Kooperation mit/Provided in Cooperation with:Kuratorium für Forschung im Küsteningenieurwesen (KFKI)Verfügbar unter/Available at: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11970/109784Vorgeschlagene Zitierweise/Suggested citation:Kufeld, Matthias; Schüttrumpf, Holger; Hausmann, Bernd; Homann, Christof (2012):Combining Reliability, Resilience, Vulnerability Criteria and Downstream Flood Risk to deriverobust Adaptation Strategies of Multi-Reservoir, multiobjective Water Resources SystemOperation under Climate Change. In: Hagen, S.; Chopra, M.; Madani, K.; Medeiros, S.;Wang, D. (Hg.): ICHE 2012. Proceedings of the 10th International Conference onHydroscience & Engineering, November 4-8, 2012, Orlando, USA.Standardnutzungsbedingungen/Terms of Use:Die Dokumente in HENRY stehen unter der Creative Commons Lizenz CC BY 4.0, sofern keine abweichendenNutzungsbedingungen getroffen wurden. Damit ist sowohl die kommerzielle Nutzung als auch das Teilen, dieWeiterbearbeitung und Speicherung erlaubt. Das Verwenden und das Bearbeiten stehen unter der Bedingung derNamensnennung. Im Einzelfall kann eine restriktivere Lizenz gelten; dann gelten abweichend von den obigenNutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte.Documents in HENRY are made available under the Creative Commons License CC BY 4.0, if no other license isapplicable. Under CC BY 4.0 commercial use and sharing, remixing, transforming, and building upon the materialof the work is permitted. In some cases a different, more restrictive license may apply; if applicable the terms ofthe restrictive license will be binding.The 10th Int.  Conf. on Hydroscience and Engineering (ICHE-2012), Nov. 4 – Nov. 8, Orlando, FL, USA  15       COMBINING RELIABILITY, RESILIENCE, VULNERABILITY CRITERIA AND DOWNSTREAM FLOOD RISK TO DERIVE ROBUST ADAPTATION STRATEGIES OF MULTI-RESERVOIR, MULTIOBJECTIVE WATER RESOURCES SYSTEM OPERATION UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE   Matthias Kufeld1, Holger Schüttrumpf2, Bernd Hausmann3, and Christof Homann4   In water resources system operation a trade-off between different objectives, such as municipal, industrial and irrigation water supply, hydropower production, flood control, navigation, recreation and ecology, must be thought. Optimization techniques have been used to derive operation rules that fulfill these different objectives through Pareto-optimal solutions. During optimization unknown future reservoir inflows are statistically described based on historic hydrological conditions. Optimization of system operation based on hydrological conditions derived from downscaled climate model results is often not feasible due to the very large uncertainties associated with this data. Also optimization techniques need simple goal functions to evaluate operation rules during computation. To thoroughly assess operation performance a more detailed analysis of the competing objectives is needed based on system simulation.  The aim of this paper is to present a framework to adapt the operation of multi-reservoir systems to the impact of climate change, based on an integrated assessment of system performance.  For a range of climate scenarios river discharge is derived using a delta-change approach and distributed hydrological modeling (Drogue et al., 2010). Five climate scenarios for two future time periods (2020 to 2050 and 2070 to 2100) and the reference period (1970 – 2000) are considered. For each of these eleven 30-year periods the reservoir operation is simulated using a deterministic model with daily time step and detailed representation of current operation rules. It considers time of year, actual combined storage level, evolution of storage, snow cover, water quality constrains as well as actual and projected future reservoir inflow to derive reservoir release (Lohr, 2001; Lange et al., 2010). The current operation has been optimized such that no failure of water supply occurs and all floods are retained for the recorded history of more than 100 years. The resulting time series of reservoir releases for the scenarios are analyzed separately in regard to floods and low-flows. The general approach for evaluating drought and flood risk under climate change is shown in Figure 1. Reservoir performance regarding water supply during droughts is measured using reliability, resilience and vulnerability (Hashimoto et al., 1982). While the reliability criterion gives information on how often the system fails and the resilience criterion on how quickly it recovers after a failure, the vulnerability criterion provides information on how severe failures are. Each criterion can reach values between zero and one. Better performance is reflected in higher values of reliability and resilience and smaller values of vulnerability. A combined figure of merit for drought risk is obtained through multiplication of criteria. This has the advantage of giving higher weight to criteria with lower values (Loucks, 1997).                                                   1 Research Associate, Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management (IWW), RWTH Aachen University, Germany (kufeld@iww.rwth-aachen.de) 2 Professor, IWW, RWTH (schuettrumpf@iww.rwth-aachen.de) 3 Research Associate, Institute of Engineering Hydrology, RWTH (hausmann@lfi.rwth-aachen.de) 4 Water Manager, Water Board Eifel-Rur, Düren, Germany (christof.homann@wver.de) The 10th Int.  Conf. on Hydroscience and Engineering (ICHE-2012), Nov. 4 – Nov. 8, Orlando, FL, USA  16    Figure 1 Approach for evaluating drought and flood risk under climate change  Downstream flood risk is computed as expected annual flood damage for floods of different magnitude and return period, where the flood magnitude downstream of the reservoirs depends on reservoir operation. Flood hydrographs are statistically generated based on each 30-year time series of river flow resulting from simulated releases and hydrological modeling of the downstream area.  The approach allows to assess the trade-offs between the competing objectives of flood retention and water storage. Based on this analysis robust adaption measures can be found that perform well under current conditions as well as for a range of climate change scenarios.  REFERENCES  Drogue, G., et al. (2010) “Analysis of Climate Change, High‐flows and Low-flows Scenarios on the Meuse Basin”, AMICE http://amiceprocet.edu/docs/pa1_pr4_1286209557_WP1_1Report.pd Hashimoto, T., Stedinger, J. R. and Loucks, D. P. (1982) “Reliability, Resiliency and Vulnerability Criteria for Water Resource System Performance Evaluation” Water Resources Research, Vol. 18, No. 1, pp. 14–20. Lange, J., Lohr, H. and Polczyk, H. (2010) “Integrating Operation of Water Quantity and Quality at the Olef Reservoir” (in German). WasserWirtschaft, Vol. 2010, No. 04, pp. 47–49. Lohr, H. (2001) “Simulation, Assessment and Optimization of Operation Rules for Water Storage Systems” (in German). Mitteilungen des Instituts für Wasserbau und Wasserwirtschaft, Vol. 118 Loucks, D. P. (1997) “Quantifying Trends in System Sustainability”. Hydrological Sciences Journal, Vol. 42, No. 4, pp. 513-530. 

Combining Reliability, Resilience, Vulnerability Criteria and Downstream Flood Risk to derive robust Adaptation Strategies of Multi-Reservoir, multiobjective Water Resources System Operation under Climate Change

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Combining Reliability, Resilience, Vulnerability Criteria and Downstream Flood Risk to derive robust Adaptation Strategies of Multi-Reservoir, multiobjective Water Resources System Operation under Climate Change

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