Heckl, A.

Kunstmann, H.

Rimmer, A.

Suppan, P.

English

KITopen

1 Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research IMK-IFUKIT – die Kooperation vonForschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHund Universität Karlsruhe (TH)Regional Climate Change Projections forthe Eastern Mediterranean/Middle East: Expected Changes in Water Availability and DroughtsHarald Kunstmann, Andreas Heckl, Peter SuppanKarlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research IMK-IFU, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, GermanyAlon RimmerKinneret Limnological Laboratory, Israel2 Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research IMK-IFUKIT – die Kooperation vonForschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHund Universität Karlsruhe (TH)Regional Climate Change Eastern Mediterranean/Middle EastMotivation • Water availability per capita in the Middle East one of the lowest worldwide (150 m³/a)• Distribution of resource freshwater has high conflict potential• Future availability may be further restricted by population pressure and climate change • Specific hydrological focus: Upper Jordan catchment(⇒ provides 1/3rd of drinking water resources in Israel)3 Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research IMK-IFUKIT – die Kooperation vonForschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHund Universität Karlsruhe (TH)IPCC 4AR, 2007Eastern Mediterranean/Near East: is in between increasing and decreasing dominant large scale patterns of DJF precipitation change Increasing PDecreasing PRegional Climate Change Eastern Mediterranean/Middle East4 Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research IMK-IFUKIT – die Kooperation vonForschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHund Universität Karlsruhe (TH)Emission scenarios: based on different assumptions on future GHG emissionsRegional Climate Change Eastern Mediterranean/Middle EastGlobal Emission ScenariosA2B25 Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research IMK-IFUKIT – die Kooperation vonForschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHund Universität Karlsruhe (TH)Population Growth     Economic Development Technological ProgressEmission Scenarios Greenhouse Gas ConcentrationsGlobal Climate ModelsGlobal Climate ScenariosDownscaling MethodsRegional Climate ScenariosRegional Climate Change Eastern Mediterranean/Middle East6 Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research IMK-IFUKIT – die Kooperation vonForschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHund Universität Karlsruhe (TH)Momentum conservationEnergy conservationGas lawConservation water mass Energy conservation at land surfacePrecipitation physicsSoil water infiltrationSoil temperature diffusionAir mass conservationRegional Climate Change Eastern Mediterranean/Middle East7 Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research IMK-IFUKIT – die Kooperation vonForschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHund Universität Karlsruhe (TH)• Non-hydrostatic (⇒ allows high resolutions!)• Dynamic Downscaling of ECHAM4 with MM5• 3 nests: 54x54 km2, 18x18 km2, 6x6 km2 • 26 Vertical Layers, Model Top: 100 mbar (ca.17 km) • Coupled OSU-Land-Surface ModelExample: The Mesoscale Meteorological Model MM5Soil DiscretizationLand Use Discretization8 Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research IMK-IFUKIT – die Kooperation vonForschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHund Universität Karlsruhe (TH)What do we expect from the High Resolution Simulations?54km… the finer the spatial resolution, the better the agreement with observationControl Runs: mean 1961-1975 Domain 2Domain 1 Domain 333.0 34.0 35.0 36.0 37.0Longitude (°E)30.031.032.033.034.0Latitude (°N)MaanDorot AmmanRabahDamascusEilonKsaraBeirutKefar-GiladiBeer-ShevaSabastyahBethlehemTripoliErRabbahBenGurionDuraIrbidSalfeet33.0 34.0 35.0 36.0 37.0Longitude (°E)MaanDorot AmmanRabahDamascusEilonKsaraBeirutKefar-GiladiBeer-ShevaSabastyahBethlehemTripoliErRabbahBenGurionDuraIrbidSalfeet33.0 34.0 35.0 36.0 37.0Longitude (°E)30.031.032.033.034.0Latitude (°N)MaanDorot AmmanRabahDamascusEilonKsaraBeirutKefar-GiladiBeer-ShevaSabastyahBethlehemTripoliErRabbahBenGurionDuraIrbidSalfeet0400800120016002000Yearly Mean Precipitation 1961-197518km 6kmRegional Climate Change Eastern Mediterranean/Middle East9 Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research IMK-IFUKIT – die Kooperation vonForschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHund Universität Karlsruhe (TH)First example: LONG TERM PROJECTIONSECHAM4, B2, 18km, 2070-99 vs. 1961-9010 Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research IMK-IFUKIT – die Kooperation vonForschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHund Universität Karlsruhe (TH)What are the expected changes in temperature? 5101520253035Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecTemperature [°C]1960-89 2070-210033.0 34.0 35.0 36.0 37.0 38.0Longitude (°E)27.028.029.030.031.032.033.034.035.0Latitude (°N)Absolute Change of Yearly Mean TemperatureFuture - Past2.52.62.72.82.93.03.13.23.33.43.53.63.73.83.94.0Regional Climate Change Eastern Mediterranean/Middle East11 Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research IMK-IFUKIT – die Kooperation vonForschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHund Universität Karlsruhe (TH)What are the expected changes in precipitation? 33.0 34.0 35.0 36.0 37.0 38.0Longitude (°E)27.028.029.030.031.032.033.034.035.0Latitude (°N)-280-240-200-160-120-80-4004080120Change in mmECHAM4 & MM5, 18 km, B2, 2070-2099 vs 1961-1990 33.0 34.0 35.0 36.0 37.0 38.0Longitude (°E)27.028.029.030.031.032.033.034.035.0Latitude (°N)-50 %-40 %-30 %-20 %-10 %0 %10 %20 %Regional Climate Change Eastern Mediterranean/Middle East12 Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research IMK-IFUKIT – die Kooperation vonForschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHund Universität Karlsruhe (TH)How does seasonal precipitation change depend on the region? 33.0 34.0 35.0 36.0 37.0Longitude (°E)30.031.032.033.034.035.0Latitude(°N)ABCD-40-30-20-1001020Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecMonthChange [mm]Area A Area B Area C Area DFor all subregions: Decreased winter, increased spring precipitationRegional Climate Change Eastern Mediterranean/Middle East13 Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research IMK-IFUKIT – die Kooperation vonForschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHund Universität Karlsruhe (TH)How do precipitation intensities change?00,511,522,533,541 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96mm/dayDays/year1960-1989 2070-2099Tendency towards decrease of precipitation intensityECHAM4 & MM5, 18 km, B2, Jordan Area North of Dead SeaRegional Climate Change Eastern Mediterranean/Middle East14 Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research IMK-IFUKIT – die Kooperation vonForschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHund Universität Karlsruhe (TH)Are drought risks changing? Analysis of effective drought index EDI33.0 34.0 35.0 36.0 37.0Longitude (°E)30.031.032.033.034.035.0Latitude(°N)ABCDSubregion A: shift towards drier conditions & increased drought risks-4 -2 0 2 4 60500100015002000250030003500Future scenario 2070-99Control run       1960-99humiddryFrequency (days/30 years)EDI [.]Regional Climate Change Eastern Mediterranean/Middle East15 Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research IMK-IFUKIT – die Kooperation vonForschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHund Universität Karlsruhe (TH)Are drought risks changing? Analysis of effective drought index EDISubregion A: Increasing drought intensities, but “unchanging” max. drought durationsEDItime tDroughtdurationDroughtintensityDroughtinterarrivaltime 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 7000100200300400500600700Drought Intensity [cum. EDI]Drought Length [days]0 100 200 300 400 5000100200300400500Drought Intensity [cum. EDI]Drought Duration [days]Regional Climate Change Eastern Mediterranean/Middle East16 Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research IMK-IFUKIT – die Kooperation vonForschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHund Universität Karlsruhe (TH)30.0 31.0 32.0 33.0 34.0 35.0 36.0 37.0 38.0Longitude (°E)28.029.030.031.032.033.034.035.036.0Latitude (°N)0501001502002503001991-20002001-20102011-20202021-20302031-20402041-20502051-20602061-20702071-20802081-20902091-2100PRECIPITATION [mm/y]A2-N B2-NA2-M B2-MA2-S B2-S01002003004005006007008001991-20002001-20102011-2020- -2061-20702071-20802081-20902091-2100PRECIPITATION [mm/y]A2-N B2-NA2-M B2-MA2-S B2-S50100150200253003504004505- - -2021-2030- - - - -PRECIPITATION [mm/y]A2-N B2-NA2-M B2-MA2-S B2-S⇒ medium term ⇒ long term recent climate… ⇐Small changes, slight increases Clear decreasesLong term vs. medium term: indications from GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELSRegional Climate Change Eastern Mediterranean/Middle East17 Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research IMK-IFUKIT – die Kooperation vonForschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHund Universität Karlsruhe (TH)Second example: MEDIUM TERM PROJECTIONSECHAM4, A2 & B2, 54km, 1961-2050 transient18 Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research IMK-IFUKIT – die Kooperation vonForschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHund Universität Karlsruhe (TH)Regional Climate Change Eastern Mediterranean/Middle EastChange (°K)33.0 34.0 35.0 36.0 37.0Longitude (°E)30.031.032.033.034.0Latitude (°N)00.511.522.5A2 (2021-2050)1014182233.0 34.0 35.0 36.0 37.0Longitude (°E)Change (°K)33.0 34.0 35.0 36.0 37.0Longitude (°E)30.031.032.033.034.0Latitude (°N)00.511.522.5B2 (2021-2050)1014182233.0 34.0 35.0 36.0 37.0Longitude (°E)CT (1961-1990)1014182233.0 34.0 35.0 36.0 37.0Longitude (°E)30.031.032.033.034.0Latitude (°N)Control Run 1961-902021-50 Ch nge [K]Szenario B2Szenario A219 Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research IMK-IFUKIT – die Kooperation vonForschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHund Universität Karlsruhe (TH)Change [mm]-30-20-10010203040506070809010033.0 34.0 35.0 36.0 37.0Longitude (°E)30.031.032.033.034.0Latitude (°N)Change [mm]-150-140-130-120-110-100-90-80-70-60-50-40-30-20-10010203033.0 34.0 35.0 36.0 37.0Longitude (°E)30.031.032.033.034.0Latitude (°N)CT (1961-1990)040080012001600200033.0 34.0 35.0 36.0 37.0Longitude (°E)30.031.032.033.034.0Latitude (°N)Change [mm]-30-20-10010203040506070809010033.0 34.0 35.0 36.0 37.0Longitude (°E)30.031.032.033.034.0Latitude (°N)Control Run 1961-902021-50 2070-99Scenario B2Scenario A2• Increase in precipitation • Little differences betweenA2 + B2 till 2050• But: significant decreasein 2070-99!PrecipitationRegional Climate Change Eastern Mediterranean/Middle East20 Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research IMK-IFUKIT – die Kooperation vonForschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHund Universität Karlsruhe (TH)33.0 34.0 35.0 36.0 37.0Longitude (°E)30.031.032.033.034.035.0Latitude (°N)ABCDChanges in temperature and  precipitation-30-20-1001020304050Jan Feb Mrz Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Decchange precipitation [mm]A2 2021-50 B2 2021-5005101520251961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051Yearly mean temperature [°C]A CT A A2 A B2Regional Climate Change Eastern Mediterranean/Middle East21 Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research IMK-IFUKIT – die Kooperation vonForschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHund Universität Karlsruhe (TH)33.0 34.0 35.0 36.0 37.0Longitude (°E)30.031.032.033.034.035.0Latitude (°N)ABCDChanges in temperature and precipitation-15-10-505101520253035Jan Feb Mrz Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Decchange precipitation [mm]A2 2021-50 B2 2021-5005101520251961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051Yearly mean temperature [°C]B CT B A2 B B2Regional Climate Change Eastern Mediterranean/Middle East22 Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research IMK-IFUKIT – die Kooperation vonForschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHund Universität Karlsruhe (TH)How does the expected atmospheric change translate into water availability in the  of Upper Jordan River Catchment?23 Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research IMK-IFUKIT – die Kooperation vonForschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHund Universität Karlsruhe (TH)Regional Climate Modeling & Hydrological Impact AnalysisExample of joint climate-hydrology simulation for hydrological impact analysisEastern Mediterranean/Near East (EM/NE) & Upper Jordan River CatchmentUpper Jordan CatchmentJordan CatchmentLEBANONSYRIAGOLANHEIGHTSISRAELYoseph BridgeBanyasSaarDanAyunSnir6x6 km²18x18 km²54x54 km²Distributed hydrological modelingof surface and subsurface water balance in 90 m resolutionHigh resolution dynamical downscaling of global climate scenariosMM5 WaSiM24 Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research IMK-IFUKIT – die Kooperation vonForschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHund Universität Karlsruhe (TH)Regional Climate Modeling & Hydrological Impact AnalysisJoint climate-hydrology simulation for hydrological impact analysisUpper Jordan River catchmentMean annual precipitation Precipitation change [%]25 Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research IMK-IFUKIT – die Kooperation vonForschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHund Universität Karlsruhe (TH)Regional Climate Modeling & Hydrological Impact AnalysisJoint climate-hydrology simulation for hydrological impact analysis010203040506070Total Runoff [mm]Jan Feb Mrz Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt Nov Dez1961 - 1990 2070 - 2099-34%-39%-32%-25%-18%-15%-33%-33%-35%-14%-8% -24%Runoff Groundwater RechargeUpper Jordan River Catchment-4-2024681012Groundwater Recharge [mm]Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec1961 - 1990 2070 - 2099-30%-33%-36%-41%-110%-127%-34%-22%-28%26 Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research IMK-IFUKIT – die Kooperation vonForschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHund Universität Karlsruhe (TH)Summary & Conclusions • Increase of temperatures in all scenarios (up to +4°C till 2100), Δt summer > Δt winter• Long term projections of precipitation differ from medium term projections:1) precipitation & intensity increase till 2050 for scenarios A2 & B2 (transient)2) precipitation & intensity decrease till 2100 for scenario B2 (time slice)• Little differences between A2 and B2 till 2050 in mean annual precipitation changebut significant differences in monthly changesUpper Jordan River Catchment (long term projection)• In spite increased spring precipitation, decreased spring runoff & recharge• Significant reduction of snow• Significantly increased drought risks in long term (EDI)Regional Climate Modeling & Hydrological Impact Analysis27 Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research IMK-IFUKIT – die Kooperation vonForschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHund Universität Karlsruhe (TH)Thank you for your attention28 Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research IMK-IFUKIT – die Kooperation vonForschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHund Universität Karlsruhe (TH)Discharge gaugesRegional Climate Modeling & Hydrological Impact AnalysisJoint climate-hydrology simulation for hydrological impact analysis0 10 20 kmCatchment boundaryVirtual climate station29 Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research IMK-IFUKIT – die Kooperation vonForschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHund Universität Karlsruhe (TH)Regional Climate Change Middle East and Upper Jordan RiverThe Upper Jordan CatchmentArea: 855 km² Max. height: 2814 m.a.s.l. (Mount Hermon) Min. height: 80 m.a.s.l. (Hula-Valley)Complex hydrogeology & groundwater/surface water interactionsPrecipitation: 750 mm/a: in the valleys 1200-1500 mm/a: top of Mt. HermonCross-bordering: Lebanon, Syria, Israel, Golan HeightsRestricted and limited data availability6 Gauges: Ayun, Snir, Banyas, Dan, Saar, Yoseph BridgeMT.HERMONARKUB-RIDGESNIR-VALLEYHULA-VALLEYBEKAA-VALLEYLEBANON-MOUNTAINSLITANI-VALLEYSION-RACHAYA  FAULTGOLAN-HEIGHTSGALILEE MOUNTAINS30 Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research IMK-IFUKIT – die Kooperation vonForschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHund Universität Karlsruhe (TH)LIBANONSYRIAGOLANHEIGHTSISRAEL Yoseph BridgeBanyasSaarDanAyunSnirHydrological Model WaSiM-ETH Physically based algorithms for vertical water fluxes & groundwater:• Evapotranspiration: soil and vegetation specific (Monteith) • Flow through unsaturated zone (Richards)• Suction head & hydraulic conductivity (van Genuchten) • 2-dim groundwater model dynamically coupled to unsaturated zoneConceptual approaches for lateral runoff aggregation• Traveltime approach folded with linear storage • Discharge routing: cinematic wave Setup Upper Jordan River catchment• spatial resolution: 90x90 m², temporal resolution: daily• subdivision into 6 sub-catchments31 Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research IMK-IFUKIT – die Kooperation vonForschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHund Universität Karlsruhe (TH)Regional Climate Change Middle East and Upper Jordan RiverBoundary Conditions for Groundwater Model Maximum depth of unsaturated zoneassumed:= 100 m32 Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research IMK-IFUKIT – die Kooperation vonForschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHund Universität Karlsruhe (TH)Regional Climate Change Middle East and Upper Jordan RiverHydrological Simulations Episode Gauge Banyas Saar Snir Ayun Yoseph BridgeValidation (1998)NSE-lin 0.8525 0.4066 0.3839 0.5527 0.7402NSE-log 0.7894 0.2997 0.6128 0.4098 0.5502Calibration (1997)NSE-lin 0.7187 0.5938 0.782 0.7311 0.8408NSE-log 0.4602 0.5377 0.69 0.3726 0.6472012345678910Nov-96Dec-96Jan-97Feb-97Mar-97Apr-97May-97Jun-97Jul-97Aug-97Sep-97Oct-97specific discharge [mm/d]020406080100120140precipitation [mm/d]precipitation observed simulated02468101214Nov-96Dec-96Jan-97Feb-97Mar-97Apr-97May-97Jun-97Jul-97Aug-97Sep-97Oct-97specific discharge [mm/d]020406080100120140160180precipitation[mm/d]precipitation observed simulatedGauge Ayun Gauge Saar33 Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research IMK-IFUKIT – die Kooperation vonForschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHund Universität Karlsruhe (TH)Regional Climate Change Middle East and Upper Jordan RiverJoint climate-hydrology simulation for hydrological impact analysisInterflow 110 mm/aDirect Runoff208 mm/aEvapotranspiration 362 mm/aBaseflow 57 mm/aInterflow 87 mm/aDirect Runoff158 mm/aEvapotranspiration 350 mm/aBaseflow 44 mm/aQtot +ET: 737mm   ⇒ 639 mm (-13%)Qtot : 375 mm ⇒ 289 mm (-23%)1961-90 2070-9934 Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research IMK-IFUKIT – die Kooperation vonForschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHund Universität Karlsruhe (TH)Regional Climate Modeling & Hydrological Impact AnalysisJoint climate-hydrology simulation for hydrological impact analysisUpper Jordan River catchmentAnnual mean temperature Temperature change [°C]

Regional climate change projections for the Eastern Mediterranean/Middle East: expected changes in water availabilty and droughts

https://publikationen.bibliothek.kit.edu/230073934/3815367

Regional climate change projections for the Eastern Mediterranean/Middle East: expected changes in water availabilty and droughts

Abstract

Similar works

Full text

Available Versions

KITopen