Is Vladimir Putin a bad strategist, perhaps irrational? Previous military activity by Russia, such as the annexation of Crimea of 2014, yielded limited international gains, at a significant economic and reputational cost. Yet as the 2022 invasion of Ukraine shows, Putin is willing to commit military power, despite the cost of sanctions and other possible retaliation. This three-player simultaneous game, originally created in June, 2021, demonstrates how domestic and international considerations of President Vladimir Putin might lead to otherwise unpredictable Russian military behavior. In this extended version of Robert Putnam’s “two-level game,” President Putin rationally uses the international venue as a field of manipulation towards his domestic audience. He is not a bad strategist; he is playing a different game – for his own benefit. This game foreshadowed the Russian invasion of Ukraine by nine months and describes what to expect next
