By disrupting investment, supply chains and technology diffusion, COVID-19 may harm renewables more than coal, but still weaken coal lock-in in developing countries. To enable new low-carbon energy choices, international flows of low-carbon technology and policy expertise must quickly re-emerge

Cherp, Aleh

Jewell, Jessica

English

Lund University Publications

LUND UNIVERSITYPO Box 117221 00 Lund+46 46-222 00 00COVID-19 weakens both sides in the battle between coal and renewablesCherp, Aleh; Jewell, Jessica2020Document Version:Publisher's PDF, also known as Version of recordLink to publicationCitation for published version (APA):Cherp, A., & Jewell, J. (2020, Apr 22). COVID-19 weakens both sides in the battle between coal andrenewables. Springer Nature.Total number of authors:2General rightsUnless other specific re-use rights are stated the following general rights apply:Copyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in the public portal are retained by the authorsand/or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by thelegal requirements associated with these rights. • Users may download and print one copy of any publication from the public portal for the purpose of private studyor research. • You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain • You may freely distribute the URL identifying the publication in the public portalRead more about Creative commons licenses: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/Take down policyIf you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will removeaccess to the work immediately and investigate your claim.MenuA community from Nature ResearchBehavioural and Social Sciences at NatureResearchSearch Search Behavioural and Social Sciences at Nature Research... SearchSign InContributorEarth Day 2020COVID-19 weakens both sides in the battle between coal and renewablesBy disrupting investment, supply chains and technology diffusion, COVID-19 may harm renewables morethan coal, but still weaken coal lock-in in developing countries. To enable new low-carbon energy choices,international flows of low-carbon technology and policy expertise must quickly re-emerge. +1Aleh Cherp and 1 other See allProfessor, Central European University and Lund UniversityFollow×ContributorsAuthorShare Facebook Twitter LinkedInCopy the linkhttps://go.nature.com/3eGojyDRead the paperAssessments of potential impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on climate change range from hopes that itwill trigger re-orientation of societies towards sustainability [1] to fears that it will decrease public andpolitical support for sweeping climate action [2]. Here we focus on the concrete question of how COVID-19 might affect the prospects of coal phase-out in different parts of the world and which post-pandemicpolicies could keep us on a more climate-friendly path. Phasing out unabated coal power requires both breaking the lock-in of the established coal regimes andrapidly expanding low-carbon alternatives. In many industrialised countries with stagnating electricitydemand, it is primarily coal lock-in that is slowing the needed transition. Such countries already haveeconomically viable renewable power sectors that can expand faster than electricity demand and replacecoal power. Several rich and well-governed countries which produce and use less coal and have olderpower plants have pledged to phase-out coal before 2030, but it’s proven more difficult for countries withlarger coal sectors [3].  For example, despite fast expansion of wind and solar power and slow demand growth, Germany hasdelayed coal phase-out until 2035 at the earliest and only under the promise of tens of billions of euros incompensation to affected companies, workers and communities [3]. Other major coal users such as theUS, Australia, and Japan have not pledged coal phase-out because of high political and economic costs ofclosing coal mines and power plants. It is unlikely that amidst the COVID-induced downturn, additionalcoal phase-out policies will be enacted due to concerns over employment and regional economies.The story in developing countries is quite different because of their rapidly growing electricity demandwhich requires adding a lot of new power capacity. Very few of such countries have committed to phasingout coal power [3] and many keep expanding coal power [4]. This concerns not only the two coal giantsChina and India, but also countries like Bangladesh that until recently have not used coal. New coal powerplants would rapidly solidify lock-in and increase ‘committed emissions’ [5]. Fortunately, COVID-19 may ease this boom in coal power plant construction because the economicdownturn would dampen electricity demand and make capital investment harder to come by. Furthermore,construction in countries like Vietnam relies on international finance and suppliers and may be hitespecially hard because cross-border trade and investment will be severely disrupted by COVID-19. Theslow-down in new constructions may destabilise the global coal complex, including equipmentmanufacturing in China and Japan, and thus weaken future lock-in. This would be similar to whathappened to nuclear power in Germany, when a decade of stagnation in the 1990s led to such a largedecrease in sectoral employment and political clout that it could not fight the nuclear phase-out law in2002 [6,7].The other side of the challenge, expanding low-carbon alternatives to coal, is also different for developingcountries. In principle, they could reduce the need for new coal power plants by massively expanding wind and solar electricity. In practice, their renewables still do not grow  fast enough to compensate evenfor electricity demand growth, to say nothing about replacing coal. Unfortunately, COVID-19 will slowthe growth of renewables due to the same factors that will slow the construction of coal power plants:lower demand growth, shortage of investment, and disruption of supply chains, international technologydiffusion and policy exchange. The last factors will be especially painful, because renewables depend oninternational technology and policy diffusion much more than coal power. On balance, the COVID-19 pandemic will have more profound impacts on electricity transitions indeveloping and emerging economies, where the bulk of electricity use in the 21st century is expected. Thepandemic is likely to disrupt both construction of new coal power plants and the uptake of renewables, butrenewables may be hit harder because they depend even more on international cooperation. The weakeneddemand growth may give developing countries a respite and a chance to reconsider their carbon-intensiveelectricity choices and minimise future coal lock-in. To support developing countries in choosing low-carbon electricity it will be essential to quickly re-establish international flows of low-carbon investment,technology, and policy expertise. Fossil energy exporters should be supported in using the opportunityprovided by low oil prices to reform their energy subsidies, which are currently largest in the world [8],and which make low-carbon electricity in these countries non-competitive. Research and writing leading to this post was supported by European Union's Horizon 2020 research andinnovation programme, Grant/Award Number: 821471 (ENGAGE)[1] World Economic Forum. 2020. How COVID-19 might help us win the fight against climate change.WEF. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/covid-19-climate-change/ [2] Trembath, Alex and Wang, Seaver. 2020. “Why the COVID-19 Response Is No Model for ClimateAction”. Breakthrough Institute. March 20. https://thebreakthrough.org/issues/energy/covid-19-climate[3] Jewell, Jessica, Vadim Vinichenko, Lola Nacke, and Aleh Cherp. 2019. “Prospects for Powering PastCoal.” Nature Climate Change. http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0509-6.[4] Edenhofer, Ottmar, Jan Christoph Steckel, Michael Jakob, and Christoph Bertram. 2018. “Reports ofCoal’s Terminal Decline May Be Exaggerated.” Environmental Research Letters 13(2): 24019.http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/13/i=2/a=024019.[5] Tong, Dan et al. 2019. “Committed Emissions from Existing Energy Infrastructure Jeopardize 1.5 °CClimate Target.” Nature 572(7769): 373–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1364-3.[6] Cherp, A., Vinichenko, V., Jewell, J., Suzuki, M., Antal, M. (2017). “Comparing electricity transitions:A historical analysis of nuclear, wind and solar power in Germany and Japan” Energy Policy 101(Asia-Pac. Rev. 14 2007), 612-628. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2016.10.044[7] Jacobsson, S., Lauber, V. (2006). The politics and policy of energy system transformation - Explainingthe German diffusion of renewable energy technology Energy Policy 34(3), 256-276.https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2004.08.029[8] Jewell, J., McCollum, D., Emmerling, J., Bertram, C., Gernaat, D., Krey, V., Paroussos, L., Berger, L.,Fragkiadakis, K., Keppo, I., Saadi, N., Tavoni, M., Vuuren, D., Vinichenko, V., Riahi, K. (2018). Limitedemission reductions from fuel subsidy removal except in energy-exporting regions Nature 554(7691),229-233. https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature25467

COVID-19 weakens both sides in the battle between coal and renewables

https://lup.lub.lu.se/search/files/100438449/COVID_19_weakens_both_sides_in_the_battle_between_coal_and_renewables_Behavioural_and_Social_Sciences_at_Nature_Research.pdf

COVID-19 weakens both sides in the battle between coal and renewables

Abstract

Similar works

Full text

Available Versions

Lund University Publications