Boeckel, Thomas P. van

Gilbert, Marius

Herrero, Mario T.

Pfeifer, Catherine

Robinson, Timothy P.

CGSpace

Sustainable animal production systems in Africa61st International Congress of Meat Science & TechnologyClermont-Ferrand, France, 23–28 August 2015Timothy RobinsonCatherine Pfeifer, Mario Herrero, Thomas van Boeckel & Marius GilbertOverview• What we mean by sustainability• Livestock sector trends and drivers• Mapping livestock distributions and production systems• Livestock and livelihoods• Livestock and the environment• Livestock, health and nutrition• ConclusionsWhat does sustainable mean?Health and nutritionEquity and growthClimate and natural resource useLivestock productionDrivers of changePolicies and institutional changeEconomic growthTrade & marketingChanging dietsEnergy pricesHealth and nutritionEquity and growthLivestock productionClimate and natural resource useSurface temperature projectionsSource: IPCC's Fifth Assessment ReportWorld population projection (UN 2012)Source: Gerland et al. 2014YearTotal population (billions)7 Billion9.5 Billion11 BillionContinental population projectionSource: Gerland et al. 2014YearTotal population (billions)Urbanisation in KenyaProjections - 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000Human population in thousands UrbanRuralPer capita GDP (US$ ppp2009)GDP growth in sub-Saharan AfricaSource: IMF WEO, Standard Chartered Research 2011YearGDP (US$ bn)GDP growth in sub-Saharan AfricaSource: Standard Chartered Research 2011Selected African countriesDrivers of change0204060801001201400 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000Per capita GDP (US$ PPP)Per capita meat consumpion (kg/year)USAJapanChinaIndiaUSAJapanChinaI diaPer capita GDP (US$ ppp)Per capita meat consumption (kg/year)2005Source: FAO 2009• Demographic and social drivers• Population: + 32% or 9.6 billion people by 2050• Income growth: + 2% per year by 2050• Urbanization: 70% will live in cities by 2050➜ Growth in demand for animal source foods• + 70% by 2050• + 200 million tonnes of meat➜ Structural changes in the livestock sector• Shift from ruminant to monogastric• Intensification of production➜ Impinges on global public goods• Equity and growth• Health and nutrition• Climate and natural resource useThe changing livestock sector• GLOBIUM: partial equilibrium model to determine consumption, production, prices and trade for different livestock commodities • Projections to 2050 were based on a spectrum of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)African livestock futuresSource: Herrero et al. 2014Socio-economic challenges for adaptationSocio-economic challenges for mitigation• 3 fold increase in milk consumption to 2050 – especially high growth in East Africa• 6-7 fold increase in consumption of pork and poultry meat– especially high growth in West Africa• Overall, poultry consumption exhibits the highest rates of growth throughout SSA• The consumption of meat from pigs and chickens will exceed red meat consumption by 2030 in most sub-regions of SSA• Smallholder mixed crop-livestock systems are, and will remain, the main producers of ruminant products to 2050, under all scenarios• Under SSP1 a low trade deficit (10%) can be maintained to 2050• Under SSP2 imports of milk and meat from monogastrics will double in relation to production• Any negative deviation (SSP3) would make African livestock production largely uncompetitive – negative outcomes for producers, consumers and continental food securityAfrican livestock futuresSource: Herrero et al. 2014Some key resultsAfrica’s food importation billTotal:US$ 44 billionMeat:US$ 5 billionMilk:US$ 4 billion Sustainable intensification• Sustainable intensification will be key to elicit a production response in most regions of Africa• Need to achieve rates of annual growth in productivity of around 6% per yearAnnual growth rates of livestock production:SSP1: Sustainability scenario > 5-6%SSP2: Business as usual 2-3%SSP3: Fragmentation scenario 1.5-2.5% ➜ Calls for an integrated, systems approach to sustainable livestock sector development➜ Need reliable data and information to guide policyDistribution of cattle in Africa (2006)Gridded Livestock of the WorldSource: Robinson et al. 2014Ruminant production systems (v5)Livestock only – arid & semi-aridLivestock only – humid & sub-humidLivestock only – tropical highlandsMixed rain-fed – arid & semi-aridMixed rain-fed – humid & sub-humidMixed rain-fed – tropical highlandsMixed irrigated – arid & semi-aridMixed irrigated – humid & sub-humidMixed irrigated – tropical highlandsUrban areasOther (forest)Source: Robinson et al. 2011Mapped based on rural populationDifference(total – extensive)% backyard% intensiveMonogastric production systemsLivestock distributionExtensive productionIntensive productionChicken systemsLog per-capita GDP (US$/person/year)From World Bank data Proportion of extensively raised  chickens Source: Gilbert et al. 2015Chicken systemsExtensive chickenproduction Intensive chickenproduction Source: Gilbert et al. 2015http://www.livestock.geo-wiki.orgInternational Livestock Research InstituteFood and AgricultureOrganisation of the UNInternational Institute forApplied Systems AnalysisUniversité Librede BruxellesWageningen UniversityUniversity of OxfordMapping poor livestock keepersSource: Robinson et al. 2011165 million poor people in Africa depend on livestock for their livelihoodsIncreases to 230 million PLK using the international $2.00 per day poverty rateLivestock system PLKLivestock only – arid & semi-arid 22,582,000Livestock only – humid & sub-humid 7,456,000Livestock only – tropical highlands 653,000Mixed rain-fed – arid & semi-arid 51,394,000Mixed rain-fed – humid & sub-humid 41,647,000Mixed rain-fed – tropical highlands 28,343,000Mixed irrigated – arid & semi-arid 432,000Mixed irrigated – humid & sub-humid 139,000Mixed irrigated – tropical highlands 179,000Other (forest) 11,701,000Source: Gerber et al. 2013Livestock emissionsper unit of landSource: Gerber et al. 2013per unit of edible proteinLivestock emissionsNutrition: the double-edged swordLivestock are key to both sides• Over one third of all adults across the world – 1.46 billion people – are obese or overweight• Between 1980 and 2008, the numbers of people affected in the developing world more than tripled, from 250 million to 904 million• We live in a world more than with 800 million hungry and 165 million stunted children• Animal-Source Foods provide 17% of calories and 26% of protein• Animal-Source Foods provide valuable micronutrients to the poor• More than 2 billion are sickened each year from the food they eat• Millions more die from zoonotic diseases that emerge from, or persist in, agricultural ecosystems• Diseases recently emerged from animals make up 25% of the infectious disease burden in least developed countries and kill one in ten people who live there➜ We have proven agricultural interventions which can tackle the diseases associated with agriculture➜ $25 billion invested in zoonotic disease control would bring benefits worth $125 billionDiseases related to livestock farmingSource: Grace 2012Emerging infectious diseasesSource: Jones et al. 2008Zoonoses from wildlife Zoonoses from non-wildlifeDrug-resistant pathogens Vector-borne pathogensGlobal distribution ofrelative risk of an EID eventSources of antimicrobial resistanceSource: P. Huey (Science)• Antimicrobial (ab)use in medicine• Intensive livestock and aquaculture• growth promotion• prophylaxis and metaphylaxis• Therapeutic use• Natural phenomenon in environmentAquaculture growth 1950-2010 Antimicrobial resistance• AMR infections currently claim at least 50,000 lives each year across Europe and the USA alone ….. with many hundreds of thousands more dying in other areas of the world• In 15 European countries more than 10% of bloodstream Staphylococcus aureus infections are caused by methicillin-resistant strains (MRSA) ….. closer to 50% in several of these Source: O’Neill 2014The O’Neill Report (2014)Intensification trajectories• Model described in Gilbert et al.  (2015) to estimate current proportions extensively raised chickens (globally)© ILRI, Mozambique, Stevie Mann• GDP PPP values and projections until 2020 from the IMF• Projections beyond 2020 are based on regional growth rates and convergence scenarios (Leimbach et al. 2015)• Poultry intensification trajectories, highlighting the changes in Nigeria, South Africa and Ethiopia as examplesIntensification trajectoriesIntensification trajectoriesIntensification trajectoriesIntensification trajectoriesIntensification trajectoriesAntimicrobial use in livestock• Total consumption in the livestock sector in 2010 estimated at 63,151 tons• Global antimicrobial consumption will rise by 67% by 2030• It will nearly double in BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa)countriesAntimicrobial resistanceSource: Van Boeckel et al. 2015Global antimicrobial consumption in livestock  (mg per 10km pixel)Antimicrobial resistance• The European Union banned the use of antibiotics to boost animals' growth in 2006• There is a ‘voluntary’ ban in the USA…… Chick-fil-A, McDonalds and Costco• Very difficult to regulate in the developing and emerging economies➜ Concerted action – multi-stakeholder platforms➜ Strengthen the evidence base linking agricultural use to AMR in the medical sector➜ Appropriate approaches in different settings – poor countries may not have the ‘resilience’ or ‘capacity’ of Europe in withstanding a blanket ban, for example➜ This is a global issue and calls for a coordinated, global responseIn conclusion• Rapid demand growth for Animal Source Foods in Africa – especially milk, pork and poultry• African production can only meet this demand, avoiding a growing trade deficit, under a sustainable growth scenario (SSP1)• The required annual growth in productivity is around 6% per year• Sustainable intensification will be needed to achieve this: equity – environment – health • This calls for integrated, systems-based solutions to guide sector development along a sustainable pathway• The need for action is urgent if African livestock production is to meet its growing demandThank you!

Sustainable animal production systems in Africa

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Sustainable animal production systems in Africa

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