王燕武，厦门大学宏观经济研究中心副教授；吴华坤，中国人民银行厦门中心支行经济师，经济学博士 ；龚敏,厦门大学宏观经济研 究中心教授；林致远，厦门大学宏观经济研究中心教授。【中文摘要】2021年,随着全球范围内新冠肺炎疫情冲击效应的逐步减弱,中国经济修复进程有望提速。基于中国季度宏观经济模型，对2021—2022年八个季度中国宏观经济主要指标进行预测。结果显示，中国经济预计将呈现“反弹-趋稳”的态势。在双循环新发展格局下，如何激发居民消费无疑是中心课题。针对增加公共消费能否引致居民消费的政策模拟显示,在财政支出总量不变的情况下，尽管政府公共消费的增加可以提高最终消费在GDP中的比重，但对居民消费产生挤出效应。其次，提高居民收人的方式要优于增加政府公共消费。因此，激发居民消费的根本途径在于提高居民收入，而不是将工作重点放在改善消费环境或增加政府公共消费上。
【Abstract】 In 2021，with the gradual weakening of the impact of COVID-19 worldwide， China's economic repair
process is expected to accelerate.Based on the quarterly macroeconomic model of China，the main indicators of China's macroeconomy in the eight quarters of 2021 -2022 are forecast. The results show that China's economy is expected to show a trend of “rebounding and stabilizing”，during which periodic inflow and outflow of overseas orders will cause certain seasonal fluctuations. Under the new pattern of double cycle development， how to stimulate residents’ coosumption is undoubtedly the central issue. The policy simulation of whether increasing public consumption can lead to household consumption shows that，under the condition of constant total fiscal expenditure， although the increase of government public consumption can increase the proportion of final consumption in GDP，it has a crowding-out effect on household consumption. Second，the way to raise household income is better than increasing public spending.Therefore，in the context of the current weak growth of consumption，especially household consumption，the fundamental way to stimulate household consumption is to increase household income，rather than focus on improving the consumption environment or increasing government public consumption.国家社会科学基金一般项目“经济特征变化下的中国减税降费政策组合研究”（20BJY231);教育部重点研究基地重大项目“中国季度宏观经济模型（CQMM)的再拓展”（17JJD790014);教育部重点研究基地重大项目“深化财税体制改革与促进中国经济平穗增长”（18JJD790007)；教育部哲学社会科学重大课题攻关项目“供给侧结构改革的理论基础与政策思路研究”（16JZD016
