NPS NRP Project PosterTotal Ownership with Lifecycle Cost Model Under UncertaintyN9 - Warfare SystemsThis research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Mun, Johnathan C.

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NPS NRP Project PosterTotal Ownership with Lifecycle Cost Model Under UncertaintyApproved for public release. Distribution is unlimited. This research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)N9 - Warfare System

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Calhoun: The NPS Institutional ArchiveDSpace RepositoryFaculty and Researchers Faculty and Researchers' Publications2019-12Total Ownership with Lifecycle Cost ModelUnder UncertaintyMun, Johnathan C.Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate Schoolhttp://hdl.handle.net/10945/70048This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, UnitedStates Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in theUnited States.Downloaded from NPS Archive: CalhounNaval PostgraduateSchoolBackgroundCost Elements Structure in Total Ownership Cost ModelTotal Ownership with Lifecycle Cost Model Under UncertaintyDOD Applications• The current research can act as a proof of concept for lifecycle cost and TOC simulation and modeling for other DOD programs.• Results from said models will assist in making strategic investment and acquisition decisions and provide an objective set of comparisons across multiple programs within an analysis of alternatives paradigm.• Various implementation paths can be modeled for each program or multiple dependent programs can be nested and linked to each other, and the optimal implementation paths based on cost and schedule risks can be determined.Conclusion and Recommendations for Future Work• Obtaining the correct cost projections over the lifecycle of an EO/IR program is critical to making the correct strategic decisions in terms of portfolio program selection subject to a set allocation of cost.• The recommended next step is to collect real-life data to implement the proposed methodology, and to create a modeling standard for analysis of alternatives of multiple EO/IR sensors and beyond.Researcher(s): Research Professor Dr. Johnathan MunGraduate School of Operational and Information Sciences (GSOIS)Topic Sponsor: Naval Sea Systems Command (NAVSEA) Surface Warfare Systems Engineering (05W)Distro A – Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.Analysis of AlternativesMethodology• Lifecycle costs are modeled with predictive modeling and Monte Carlo risk simulation to determine the probabilistic outcomes of each cost element.• Multiple EO/IR capabilities are compared side by side, with cost and risk elements directly comparable in present values.• Analysis of alternatives can be easily implemented using the same cost modeling techniques for cross comparisons of multiple programs simultaneously. Risk-based Monte Carlo Simulation for Predictive ModelingNRP  Project ID: NPS-19-N110-A • Modeling the lifecycle and total ownership cost (TOC) of Surface Electro-Optic Infrared (EO/IR) sensors for NAVSEA and DOD in general. • Starts with the basics of TOC modeling over the life cycle of the EO/IR, including the inception phase of Acquisition Costs, followed by annual Operations and Maintenance (O&M) expenses, and a final set of Disposition Costs at the end of life of the sensor. • Models and methodologies are extensible to include multiple sensors as a way to compare them under an analysis of alternatives paradigm.Narrow-Medium Field of View (NFOV) Sensors Supply Support EO/IR Sensor Manager (ESM) Manpower and PersonnelNF-DIR (NFOV Director) Wholesale and Retail Supply Chain Management Processing Equipment Program Management Office TeamNF-TIS (Thermal Imaging Sensor) - TIS #1 Spares Worldwide Transportation Processing Software Manning and military occupational series trainingNF-TIS (Thermal Imaging Sensor) - TIS #2 Spares Warehousing Recording Equipment Depot ActivationNF-EOS (Electro-Optic Sensor) - EOS #1 Consumable Spares Replenishment Docking Station Equipment Software SustainmentNF-EOS (Electro-Optic Sensor) - EOS #2 Provisioning and Initial Spares Lay-in Ancillary Material (video converters, encoders, switches, racks, cabling) Initial Fielding SupportNF-EOS (Electro-Optic Sensor) - EOS #3 Obsolescence Mitigation (Cost should be escalated)NF-LRF (Laser Rangefinder) Contracting Strategy Human Machine Interface (HMI) Technical Data ManagementNF-LDR (Laser Designator/Rangefinder) Decreasing Economies of Scale HMI-B (HMI Bridge/Cockpit) Depot ActivationNF-LDRFI (Laser Designator/Rangefinder/Illuminator) Battle Damage HMI-C (HMI Combat Information Center/Cabin) Software SustainmentNF-LP (Laser Pointer) Initial Fielding Support HMI-I (HMI Intel) Manning and military occupational series trainingNF-LOI (Laser Optical/Ocular Interrupter) Prepositioned Stock Ancillary Material (additional displays, control panel switches, cabling, mounts) O-level publications and new equipment trainingNF-LI (Laser Illuminator) Sustainment Planning and Data ProcurementNF-IRU (Inertial Reference Unit) Maintenance Planning and Management Product Support Management Contracting StrategyNF-BSM (Boresight Module) System Support Strategy Program Management Office Team Other: ___________NF-EU (Electronics Unit) Title 10 Core 50/50 Sustainment Planning and Data ProcurementAncillary Material (cabling, mounting hardware, etc.) Depot Activation Depot Activation Nonrecurring Acquisition and End of Lifecycle CostsSoftware Sustainment Software Sustainment Acquisition and ProcurementWide Field of View (WFOV) Sensors Depot Repair and Overhaul Integrated Product Support Team Bid Specifications DevelopmentWF-DIR (Director) Manning and military occupational series training Provisioning and Initial Spares Lay-in Proposal EvaluationWF-TIS (Thermal Imaging Sensor) O-level publications and new equipment training Contracting Strategy Data CollectionWF-EOS (Electro-Optic Sensor) Sustainment Planning and Data Procurement Full Scale Production Data AnalysisWF-IRU (Inertial Reference Unit) Provisioning and Initial Spares Lay-in Contracts DevelopmentWF-EU (Electronics Unit) Demilitarization and Disposal Support Equipment Program PlanningAncillary Material (cabling, mounting hardware, etc.) Full Scale Production Depot Activation Hardware PurchasesDecreasing Economies of Scale Software Sustainment Personal ComputersDesign Interface Initial Fielding Support Special Tools & Equipment PeripheralsTechnology development (TRL2 to TRL4) Obsolescence Mitigation (Cost should be escalated) Ancillary Equipment StorageMateriel development and LRIP (TRL5 to TRL7) Support Equipment Sustainment NetworkingOperational Test (TRL8) Training and Training Support Initial Fielding Support Related EquipmentCombat system integration (software changes) Depot Activation Obsolescence Mitigation (Cost should be escalated) Other costsReliability Growth Program Software Sustainment    Administrative CostTechnology Refresh (P3I, emerging threats, obsolescence...) Manning and military occupational series training Packaging, Handling, Storage and Transportation    Asset ManagementTechnology Roadmap O-level publications and new equipment training Transportability Requirements    Overseeing Contractor ServicesDesign for Maintainability Sustainment Planning and Data Procurement Transportation Limitations    In-House Training for StaffModularity Transportability Requirements Initial Fielding Support    Product MaintenanceObsolescence Mitigation (Cost should be escalated) Initial Fielding Support    Help Desk SupportNonrecurring End of Lifecycle Costs    IT Support for Database ManagementComputer Resources Facilities and Infrastructure   End of Lifecycle    Network Management SupportManning and military occupational series training Ship alteration for initial fielding    Administrative Cost    Software UpgradesDepot Activation Depot Activation    Asset Management    Hardware UpgradesSoftware Sustainment Software Sustainment    Vendor Contract Procurement    Internet and Network Access CostO-level publications and new equipment training    Staging, Sanitizing, Testing    Furniture and EquipmentInitial Fielding Support    Follow-Up Support    Energy Costs   Recycling and Disposal Fees    Informal Training   Value of Sold Products and Materials    Downtime Support and Outsource

Total Ownership with Lifecycle Cost Model Under Uncertainty

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Total Ownership with Lifecycle Cost Model Under Uncertainty

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