Defense Analysis PosterJoint Special Operations Comman

Anderson, Cam

Husinko, Nick

Min, Chi

Stewart, Jon

English

Calhoun, Institutional Archive of the Naval Postgraduate School

Calhoun: The NPS Institutional ArchiveDSpace RepositoryDepartment of Defense Analysis Defense Analysis Department Student Research Posters2018-12Analyzing Partnered CounterterrorismOutcomes Beyond the Conflict ZoneAnderson, Cam; Husinko, Nick; Min, Chi; Stewart, Jonhttp://hdl.handle.net/10945/66279This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, UnitedStates Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in theUnited States.Downloaded from NPS Archive: CalhounNaval PostgraduateSchoolContext & QuestionsResearch Drivers:• Specific request from an operational unit• Foreign terrorist fighter phenomenon• Recent case in Trinidad and Tobago• Operational experience of researchersResearch Questions:  What conditions are conducive to successful partnered CT operations in countries outside of declared theaters of active armed conflict (ODTAAC)?  What analytical framework should the U.S. CT enterprise use to assess these conditions?Research Value:  As the locus of CT efforts shifts from conflict zones to ODTAAC environments, it requires an analytical framework that enables decision-making based on legal and policy conditions. Understanding these conditions will help USSOF determine when and where to apply their capabilities and how to integrate partners. Analyzing Partnered Counterterrorism Outcomes Beyond the Conflict ZoneThesis Authors: Cam Anderson, Nick Husinko, Chi Min and Jon StewartThesis Advisor: Dr. Leo Blanken, Associate Professor, DA Dept, ljblanke@nps.eduSecond Reader: Dr. John Tullius, Intelligence Chair, DA Dept, jdtulliu@nps.eduThesis Sponsor: Joint Special Operations CommandResearch DesignMethods:  Qualitative Case Study and Descriptive ResearchApproach:  • Collected data through open-source research and interviews with personnel from the Special Operations community, DOD and other U.S. Government agencies.• Applied Goertz’s methods of constructing concepts to build a three-level ontological framework that captures the essential dimensions of partnered CT operations in ODTAAC environments.• Operationalized the framework using empirical data from its case study on Trinidad and Tobago and other research to create indicators based on logical equations and backwards modeling.Conclusions & RecommendationsConclusions:• Successful partnered CT efforts in ODTAAC countries hinge on three dimensions:  (1) positive net relationship status, (2) CT capabilities and (3) favorable legal and policy conditions.• The U.S. CT enterprise lacks useful understanding of the operational risk posed by legal and policy conditions.• The Counter Terrorism Assessment Program (CTAP) can help to collect and quantify the necessary data, display it quickly and easily, and enable comparative analysis across different partner nations to inform resource allocation decisions.Recommendations:  • Provide consolidated operational and fiscal authorities for DOD, but specifically USSOF, to provide support to partner nation judicial finishes in ODTAAC environments.• Implement, populate and refine the CTAP framework to better ‘Understand the Operational Environment’ prior to dedicating finite USSOF resources to a CT problem set.• Develop a long-term data management solution.• Engage the U.S. Embassy country teams and partner nation officials through the CTAP to improve or develop relational ties among stakeholders and promote shared understanding.F3EAD Targeting Cycle with Judicial FinishAnalytical Framework for Supported Partner Nation Judicial FinishesDimensional Interactions during Judicial FinishCTAP Report Template (left) and Mock CTAP Portal (right)

Analyzing Partnered Counterterrorism Outcomes Beyond the Conflict Zone

https://calhoun.nps.edu/bitstream/handle/10945/66279/Capstone_Poster_Anderson_et_al.pdf?sequence=1

Analyzing Partnered Counterterrorism Outcomes Beyond the Conflict Zone

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Calhoun, Institutional Archive of the Naval Postgraduate School