Havlik, P.

Pachauri, S.

Palazzo, A.

Poblete Cazenave, M.

van Dijk, M.

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Assessing the land-energy nexus in Southern Africa: An integrated assessment and scenario approachMichiel Van Dijk, Amanda Palazzo, Miguel Poblete-Cazenave, Petr Havlík, and Shonali PachauriEGU Session HS5.209 April 2019• 70% of Sub-Saharan African households rely on firewood and charcoal for cooking.• Contrasting views on the impact of woodfuelharvesting on forests:• Key driver of deforestation versus• Contributor to forest degradation and localized deforestation• Impact is site specific => ‘hot spots’ of unsustainable woodfuel use 2Land-Energy NexusEGU: Session HS5.2.109 April 2019Global solid-fuel cooking biomass pressure mapSource: ESMAP (2015)3• Part of the ISWEL project: Larger study of the land-water-energy trade-offs in the Zambezi river basin.• Documented strong interactions and trade offs between household energy demand in the form of woodfuel (firewood and charcoal) and deforestation/ forest degradation in Southern Africa.• Firewood and charcoal make up between 70% (Zambia) and 89% (Malawi) of the national energy consumption (IDLO 2011 and Kambewa and Chiwaula, 2010)• Charcoal production is considered one of the primary causes of forest degradation in Malawi and Zambia (Day et al. 2013, MNREM 2017). • LULUCF analysis often do no take into account the energy-land nexus in African countries. • Aim: To assess the impact of woodfuel demand on land use and forest change in Malawi and Zambia using an integrated modelling framework Motivation and objectiveEGU: Session HS5.2.109 April 2019GLOBIOM• Global scale model based detailed spatial resolution (>200k cells)• Partial equilibrium and land use model• Agricultural, wood, and bioenergy markets• 30+ world regions and Zambezi basin countries • Bilateral trade flows based on spatial equilibrium approach• Bottom-up approach• Explicit description of production technologies a la Leontief• Technologies specified by production system and grid cell• Water availability/demand in Zambezi basin at 21 subbasin level •4• Provides projections for fuelwood and charcoal household demand as a function of income, prices, annualized stove costs and inconvenience costs.• National household survey data calibrate household preferences for  cooking options in the base year• Future demands are projected using:o Price trends from the MESSAGEix IAM (Huppman et al 2018)o Future demographics and income (Samir KC & Lutz 2017; Crespo Cuaresma et al 2017)o National projections for Gini coefficient (Rao et al 2019)5MESSAGE-AccessSource: Poblete-Cazenave & Pachauri 2018MESSAGE-access flowchart09 April 2019EGU: Session HS5.2.1• Spatially explicit and dynamic landscape model that simulates the effect of residentialwoodfuel harvesting on local vegetation.• Projects woodfuel harvesting sites, accounting for forest supply, distance, accessibility and local demand.• Main inputs are high resolution data on land cover, transport infrastructure and population combined with forest growth and friction parameters. 6Mofuss (Modeling fuelwood savings scenarios) EGU: Session HS5.2.109 April 2019Mofuss flowchartSource: Ghilardi et al. (2016)7Model frameworkEGU: Session HS5.2.109 April 2019GLOBIOMMESSAGE-AccessMofussForest change as a consequence of agricultural and commercial forestry drivers (ha)Demand projections for household firewood and charcoal (GJ)Supply-demand balance, Non Renewable Biomass and fraction of Non-Renewable BiomassSSP Income and population projectionsLand use change (ha) and GHG emissions(CO2eq)Demand for biomass for household energy (firewood and charcoal – M3)Scenario assumptions based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathways8, date EGU: Session HS5.2.19BAU: Household energy demand from MESSAGE-AccessForest area equivalent (ha)Household energy demand projections (GJ)09 April 2019EGU: Session HS5.2.1BAU: Deforestation and GHG emissions from GLOBIOM09 April 2019EGU: Session HS5.2.110 - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,0002000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050000 ha CrpLnd GrsLnd MngFor NatLnd PriFor11• Land-Energy challenges and issues in Southern Africa are relevant due to the heavy reliance on woodfuel for energy changing population dynamics • Forest degradation and loss from woodfuel harvesting may be underestimated• Impacts of forest degradation can be highly localized and react dynamically based on changes in land use  • Integration of detailed household demand models, spatially explicit woodfuel demand and supply models and agricultural land use models is a way forward to account for the woodfuel demand, harvesting practices, and regeneration ConclusionsEGU: Session HS5.2.109 April 201912• Run Mofuss at high spatial resolution (100m) • Finish model integration• Linking household energy demand across models• Impact of woodfuel collection on forest degradation• Model alternative energy scenarios• Linking deforestation and forest degradation with hydrological modellingFuture Work09 April 2019EGU: Session HS5.2.1NameProgramEmailWebIIASA – Opportunities & ResourcesThe Young Scientists Summer Program (YSSP) trains the next generation of researchers from around the worldThe Peter E. de JanosiPostdoctoral Fellowships offer year-long postdoctoral positionsInteractive Web DatabasesPolicy Toolswww.iiasa.ac.at09 April 2019EGU: Session HS5.2.114

Assessing the land-energy nexus in Southern Africa: An integrated assessment and scenario approach

http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/16860/1/20190409.PalazzoVanDijkEGU.pdf

Assessing the land-energy nexus in Southern Africa: An integrated assessment and scenario approach

Abstract

Similar works

Full text

Available Versions

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)