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A Model for Analyzing Lake Water Acidification on a Large Region Scale - Part 1: Model Structure

Abstract

The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis is developing a computer model which can be used by decision makers to evaluate policies for controlling the impact of acid rain in Europe. As part of this task, a simple dynamic model has been developed for describing the processes leading to acidification of surface waters. The simulation model is constructed of several modules, each of them providing an overview of a particular aspect of lake acidification. The meteorologic module calculates the amount of water and deposition entering the soil or the lake directly each month. The IIASA soil acidity submodel accounts for the soil solution chemistry. A simple hydrologic method is applied for simulating the routing of internal flows so that the convective flow of ions can be estimated. The lake response is calculated according to the equilibrium reactions of inorganic carbon species. These modules are described in this paper. In part 2 the application of the model on a large regional scale will be described. Monte Carlo techniques will be used to determine those ranges and combinations of input values that produce an acceptable present day lake acidity distribution, when the model is driven by a specified deposition

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