In the 2022 midterms, the Keystone State appears poised, as ever, to play a bellwether role. Following primary contests in the state, Maxwell Serota and Robin Kolodny write that Pennsylvania’s US Senate, House and gubernatorial elections are likely to be highly contested – and incredibly important nationally – this November

Kolodny, Robin

Serota, Maxwell

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The	2022	Midterms:	Up	and	down	the	ballot,Pennsylvania	reflects	national	political	splitsIn	the	2022	midterms,	the	Keystone	State	appears	poised,	as	ever,	to	play	a	bellwether	role.	Followingprimary	contests	in	the	state,	Maxwell	Serota	and	Robin	Kolodny	write	that	Pennsylvania’s	USSenate,	House	and	gubernatorial	elections	are	likely	to	be	highly	contested	–	and	incredibly	importantnationally	–	this	November.Looking	ahead	to	elections	across	the	US	in	2022,	our	mini-series, ‘The	2022	midterms‘,	exploresaspects	of	elections	at	the	presidential,	Senate,	House	of	Representative	and	state	levels,	and	also	reflects	onwhat	the	results	will	mean	for	US	politics	moving	forward.	If	you	are	interested	in	contributing,	please	contactRob	Ledger	(ledger@em.uni-frankfurt.de)	or	Peter	Finn	(p.finn@kingston.ac.uk).	Pennsylvania	is	a	critical	battleground	state	in	the	upcoming	2022	midterm	elections.	In	the	2020	presidentialelection,	Democratic	candidate	Joe	Biden	managed	to	carry	the	state	by	just	over	one	percent.	The	2022	senateand	gubernatorial	midterm	elections	in	the	state	are	shaping	up	to	be	just	as	close.	Pennsylvania	is	one	of	the	onlystates	in	America	represented	by	senators	of	both	parties	and	has	frequently	switched	from	its	partisan	lean	fromelection	to	election	over	the	last	century.	The	state	is	also		one	of	the	best	chances	Democrats	have	to	flip	aRepublican	seat	in	the	US	Senate	and	the	race	for	governor	has		been	called	“the	most	important	election	this	yearin	America.”PrimariesThe	Pennsylvania	primaries	were	held	on	Tuesday,	May	17,	2022.	In	the	Republican	Senate	primary	doctor,businessman,	and	television	personality	Mehemet	Oz	was	nominated	as	the	candidate	after	a	long,	heated	primary.Trump-endorsed	Oz	defeated	David	McCormick,	his	chief	opponent,	by	951	votes	out	of	1.3	million	cast.	The	racewas	so	tight,	an	automatic	recount	was	triggered,	delaying	results	by	almost	a	week.	McCormick	conceded	the	raceto	Oz	and	both	candidates	pledged	to	work	to	unite	the	party	for	the	general	election.The	Democratic	senate	primary	was	far	less	contentious.	Lieutenant	Governor	John	Fetterman	defeated	ConorLamb,	a	US	congressman	from	Pennsylvania’s	17th	congressional	district,	and	Malcolm	Kenyatta,	a	staterepresentative	from	Philadelphia.	Fetterman	cruised	to	victory	with	a	margin	of	more	than	thirty	points,	winningevery	county	in	Pennsylvania.	Fetterman’s	decisive	victory	was	blunted	slightly	by	a	stroke	he	suffered	on	May	13,just	days	before	the	primary,	which	prevented	him	from	appearing	publicly	to	celebrate	his	victory.The	gubernatorial	primaries	in	Pennsylvania	were	less	competitive.	Democratic	candidate	Josh	Shapiro	ranunopposed	in	the	gubernatorial	primary,	while	the	GOP	primary	had	a	crowded	field	of	nine	candidates.	Statesenator	Doug	Mastriano	won	the	Republican	nomination	with	43.8	percent	of	the	vote.	The	Shapiro	campaignseemingly	anticipated	Mastriano’s	victory,	running	attack	ads	against	Mastriano	during	the	primary	that	called	him“one	of	Donald	Trump’s	strongest	supporters.”The	Senate	race	in	NovemberThe	Pennsylvanian	senate	election	is	one	of	only	six	open	senate	seats	in	the	2022	election	cycle.	In	2020,incumbent	Republican	senator	Pat	Toomey	announced	he	would	not	be	seeking	reelection.	Toomey	was	elected	byslim	margins	both	in	2016	(+1/5	percent)	and	in	2010	(+2.0	percent),	demonstrating	the	state’s	competitiveness.USApp – American Politics and Policy Blog: The 2022 Midterms: Up and down the ballot, Pennsylvania reflects national political splits Page 1 of 3		Date originally posted: 2022-08-05Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2022/08/05/the-2022-midterms-up-and-down-the-ballot-pennsylvania-reflects-national-political-splits/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/The	candidates	in	the	general	election	are	both	unconventional,	spurring	intense	national	interest	in	the	race.	JohnFetterman	is	the	state’s	current	Lieutenant	Governor,	a	position	he	won	partly	from	his	failed	2016	campaign	for	theDemocratic	US	Senate	primary	(Katie	McGinty	was	the	winner	who	then	narrowly	lost	to	Pat	Toomey).	Fetterman	isa	liberal	who	supported	the	presidential	candidacy	of	Bernie	Sanders.	He	supports	Medicare	for	all,	a	$15	minimumwage,	and	the	legalization	of	cannabis.	Fetterman	served	as	mayor	of	Braddock,	a	small	steel	town	in	ruralPennsylvania	for	13	years.	Fetterman	does	not	look	like	a	typical	politician;	instead,	the	6’9”	man	sports	a	shavedhead	and	goatee	and	is	often	found	wearing	basketball	shorts	and	a	sweatshirt	in	lieu	of	a	suit.	He	connects	withsome	of	the	same	white	working-class	voters	in	the	state	that	Trump	did.	While	some	Democrats	worry	thatFetterman	is	too	liberal	to	win	in	Pennsylvania,	others	hope	that	his	apparent	ability	to	connect	with	blue	collarworkers	across	the	state	will	help	make	inroads	in	counties	that	Trump	carried	by	a	large	margin	in	the	2020election.Dr.	Mehmet	Oz,	a	heart	surgeon,	businessman,	and	television	personality	faces	Fetterman.	Oz	initially	rose	to	fameas	a	health	expert	on	“the	Oprah	Winfrey	Show”	and	later	as	the	host	of	“the	Dr.	Oz	Show”	where	he	receivedcriticism	for	dispensing	sometimes-unsound	medical	advice.	Oz	is	a	standard	Republican	candidate	on	the	issues.He	pledges	support	for	the	Second	Amendment,	small	businesses,	veterans,	and	tax	cuts.	Oz	recently	moved	toPennsylvania	from	New	Jersey	to	run	for	the	Senate	seat,	prompting	the	Fetterman	campaign	to	attack	Oz	as	acarpetbagger	with	a	series	of	tweets,	ads,	and	other	media	including	yard	signs	reading	“Oz	for	New	Jersey.”	Currently,	Fetterman	leads	most	polls	against	Oz	but	both	campaigns	expect	the	gap	to	tighten	as	election	daynears.“20131105-092315”	(CC	BY-NC	2.0)	by	weaverphotoA	high	stakes	Governor’s	raceThe	Pennsylvania	gubernatorial	election	is	also	a	contest	for	an	open	seat	as	Democratic	Governor	Tom	Wolf	hasserved	both	terms	of	a	two-term	maximum.	Winning	the	governorship	would	allow	the	Republican	Party,	whichalready	controls	both	houses	of	the	state’s	legislature,	to	pass	legislation	unhindered	by	Democratic	opposition.	ForDemocrats,	winning	the	race	is	essential	to	prevent	the	very	trifecta	that	Republicans	seek.	The	stakes	of	the	racehave	been	raised	further	by	the	Dobbs	v.	Jackson	Supreme	Court	decision	in	June	of	2022	that	endedconstitutional	protection	for	abortion	and	returned	the	decision	of	its	legality	to	the	states.	The	Republican-controlledPennsylvanian	state	legislature	is	hostile	to	abortion	rights.	In	early	July	they	advanced	a	potential	amendment	thatwould	allow	them	to	restrict	abortion	in	the	future	and	it	is	likely	that	they	would	restrict	abortion	if	they	won	thegovernorship.USApp – American Politics and Policy Blog: The 2022 Midterms: Up and down the ballot, Pennsylvania reflects national political splits Page 2 of 3		Date originally posted: 2022-08-05Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2022/08/05/the-2022-midterms-up-and-down-the-ballot-pennsylvania-reflects-national-political-splits/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/The	Democratic	candidate	for	governor	is	the	state’s	Attorney	General	Josh	Shapiro.	Shapiro	has	been	involved	inPennsylvania	politics	since	2005	when	he	was	first	elected	to	the	state’s	House	of	Representatives.	Shapiro	is	atypical	Democrat	and	his	policies—support	for	abortion,	clean	energy,	and	criminal	justice	reform—are	in	line	withnational	party	politics	as	well.	He	worked	very	hard	to	clear	the	primary	field	for	himself,	a	feat	unprecedented	inPennsylvania	politics.Unlike	Shapiro,	Republican	candidate	Doug	Mastriano	is	new	to	politics.	After	nearly	30	years	in	the	US	Army,Mastriano	ran	unsuccessfully	in	a	Republican	primary	for	a	congressional	seat	in	2018,	then	successfully	in	aspecial	election	for	the	State	Senate	in	2019,	to	which	he	was	reelected	in	2020.	Mastriano	has	been	called	a“Christian	nationalist”	by	various	newspapers	across	the	state,	although	he	has	rejected	the	label.	Mastrianoembraced	and	perpetuated	Donald	Trump’s	conspiracy	theory	that	the	2020	presidential	election	was	stolen,	goingas	far	as	bussing	Trump	supporters	to	the	capitol	on	January	6,	2021,	and	crossing	police	barricades	there	himself.He	is	such	an	extreme	candidate	that	several	republican	politicians	from	Pennsylvania	broke	party	lines	andendorsed	Shapiro,	arguing	Mastriano	was	a	threat	to	the	rule	of	law.	Despite	Mastriano’s	extremism,	Shapiro	hasonly	a	marginal	lead	in	several	recent	polls.The	US	House	of	Representatives	from	PennsylvaniaFrom	2012	to	2020,	Pennsylvania	had	18	representatives	to	the	US	House.	In	2017,	a	major	judicial	victory	waswon	by	reformers	who	argued	that	the	state,	with	51	percent	Democratic	voter	registration,	had	beeninappropriately	gerrymandered	by	party.	At	that	point,	the	split	of	the	House	delegation	was	13	Republicans	to	fiveDemocrats.	After	a	protracted	battle	for	a	new	map	for	the	2018	elections,	both	the	Republicans	and	the	Democratseach	held	nine	seats.Because	of	reapportionment	after	the	2020	census,	Pennsylvania	lost	one	seat.	In	2022,	only	17	members	will	beelected	with	a	map	that	slightly	favors	Republicans.	Political	observers	agree	that	in	2022,	the	Democrats	are	likelyto	win	six	seats,	the	Republicans	eight,	with	three	seats	rated	as	toss-ups.At	every	level,	Pennsylvania	embodies	the	current	political	divisions	seen	in	the	nation	at	large.Please	read	our	comments	policy	before	commenting.Note:	This	article	gives	the	views	of	the	authors,	and	not	the	position	of	USAPP	–	American	Politics	and	Policy,	northe	London	School	of	Economics.Shortened	URL	for	this	post:	https://bit.ly/3A3w91QAbout	the	authorsRobin	Kolodny	–	Temple	UniversityRobin	Kolodny	is	a	professor	and	chair	of	the	department	of	Political	Science	at	Temple	University.She	was	a	2008-2009	Fulbright	Distinguished	Scholar	to	the	United	Kingdom	at	the	University	ofSussex.	In	1995,	she	was	an	American	Political	Science	Association	Congressional	Fellow.	She	is	theauthor	of	Pursuing	Majorities:	Congressional	Campaign	Committees	in	American	Politics.Maxwell	Serota	–	Carleton	CollegeMaxwell	Serota	is	an	undergraduate	student	at	Carleton	CollegeUSApp – American Politics and Policy Blog: The 2022 Midterms: Up and down the ballot, Pennsylvania reflects national political splits Page 3 of 3		Date originally posted: 2022-08-05Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2022/08/05/the-2022-midterms-up-and-down-the-ballot-pennsylvania-reflects-national-political-splits/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/

The 2022 midterms: up and down the ballot, Pennsylvania reflects national political splits

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The 2022 midterms: up and down the ballot, Pennsylvania reflects national political splits

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